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Discussion Topic: Ohio State vs. Northwestern Predictions/Discussion
Ben Golden added to this discussion on February 18, 2009
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It goes down this Friday at 8 pm eastern. There should be a few good matches, but in the end Northwestern probably does not have strength at enough weight classes to win this one. Here are the likely matchups:
125: Nikko Triggas vs. #3 Brandon Precin
133: #2 Reece Humphrey vs. Eric Metzler
141: #14 J Jaggers vs. #16 Keith Sulzer
149: #4 Lance Palmer vs. Andrew Nadhir
157: #17 Jason Johnstone vs. #14 Jason Welch
165: #2 Colt Sponseller vs. Dominic Marella
174: Dave Rella vs. Robert Kellogg
184: #1 Jake Herbert vs. #2 Mike Pucillo
197: Jason Cook vs. John Schoen
285: Corey Morrison vs. Paul Rands
I think it looks something like this:
125: Precin MAJ Triggas (0-4)
Triggas can keep it closer (he has held very good opponents to decisions), but I will give Northwestern the major just to be generous. Who knows--Triggas could put Precin on his back, too.
133: Humphrey MAJ Metzler (4-4)
Could be a pin.
141: Jaggers dec. Sulzer (7-4)
Funky! Two Ohio funkers meet up. I think Jaggers wins it. Then again, I give Jaggers about a 50/50 shot at beating anyone he wrestles. He can beat the best or lose to the not-so-good. I'm thinking his pin over Prater will get him going, though.
149: Palmer MAJ Nadhir (11-4)
Palmer has been having trouble getting the bonus against lesser opponents so far because he will just ride the for the whole match, but not be able to turn them. Could be a decision, or if he gets his power half in, it's 6.
157: Johnstone dec. Welch (14-4)
Welch is ranked a little higher, but I think Johnstone wins this one. Johnstone has trouble with the bigger/stronger 157s, but he is actually very technically sound and he hasn't really had a problem with getting too tired. Welch hasn't stricken me as a huge/brute 157, but I really haven't watched him wrestle in college, so I could be wrong.
165: Sponseller MAJ Marella (20-4)
Or worse.
174: Rella dec. Kellogg (23-4)
I don't really think this will be that close--could be a major. Dergo majored Kellogg, and Rella took Dergo down 3 times. Kellogg barely slipped by Minny's Young, who Rella has majored twice. Dave has been wrestling well lately--I almost expect a major.
184: Herbert dec. Pucillo (23-7)
Match of night (year?). I am rooting for Pucillo and I think if he is at his best he can pull it off, but I cannot, in good conscious, pick him to beat Herbert right now. This is the picture I have in my head of Herbert: A guy who loves to wrestle, loves to train, and doesn't really have any classes right now, so the only things he has to do with his time are train hard and every girl on campus.
I really don't see a blowout happening. Herbert was unable to put up a big number on Kilgore, and Pucillo is simply harder to score on than anyone Herbert has wrestled this year. Pucillo is also very good at getting out from the bottom.
The biggest problem I see for Pucillo is this: I don't know that his offense is good enough make anything happen against a Herbert who does not stop. Then again, Pucillo is very rarely out of position, and if Herbert makes a mistake, Mikey is the guy who can pounce on it for a counter TD.
The second biggest problem I see for Pucillo is this: His last two opponents have gotten in fairly deep on shots. I had not noticed this being a problem for Mike until Biondo got in on him twice. Typically Mikes hips are a brick wall, and no one can really bend him. Like I said, Biondo did it twice, and Blanton did it once. Now, neither of them were able to convert but my concern is that Herbert is probably quicker than either of those two, and if he gets in like that, he is MUCH more likely to finish. Of course, Mike is a very smart wrestler, so I'm sure he has thought about this.
The third potential problem I see for Pucillo is this: Conditioning. Early in the season, it might have been more of a problem. However, Mike has had time to get back in shape and has looked strong late in his matches against good opponents. Herbert will definitely be in "better" shape, but I don't know that it will it will be enough to strongly influence the match.
197: Schoen dec. Cook (23-10)
I'm giving this to Schoen, but I think Cook, despite his lack of experience, has a great shot. He only lost to Logan Brown because of riding time. His match with Bond could have been closer--Cook almost reversed him (and I think he thought he had the reversal), but instead Bond got back points. It was kind of a confusing scenario. Anyway, I had this in my head as a definite win for NU, but Schoen just isn't too good either.
285: Morrison dec. Rands (26-10)
Not much to say.
Overall, I think NU might have trouble getting the double digits that I gave them. Like I said, it shouldn't be too close from a team standpoint, but there are some good matchups and then, of course, the main event.
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Discussion Topic: Ohio State vs. Northwestern Predictions/Discussion
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on February 18, 2009
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Ben: Good synopsis.
I think Triggas will keep it close with Precin. One key to wrestling Precin is to stop his firemans. He likes the same style firemans/knee post that Triggas likes to hit.
Johnstone v Welch should be very interesting. It could be a very high scoring matchup between two guys that could spend half the match in a scramble.
I think Cook wins 197 as Schoen has not shown much. Cook has some big moves.
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Discussion Topic: Ohio State vs. Northwestern Predictions/Discussion
Ben Golden added to this discussion on February 19, 2009
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I originally wrote that for another site that is national, so I didn't want to sound like to much of a homer. I think Cook will probably win too--he only lost to Logan Brown on riding time and his match with Bond was probably closer than the score.
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Discussion Topic: Ohio State vs. Northwestern Predictions/Discussion
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on February 19, 2009
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Ahh, those national sites. It ain't easy to say what you really think on them. Everyone's a nitpicker.
Either way, the Bucks look to match up well with NW. Wisconsin, however, could be different.
OSU v Wiscy
125 and 133 are the Badgers weakest links. Bucks will need bonus at both.
141: Jags vs Tanelli--very tough matchup
149: Palmer v Ruschell--Palmer beat him earlier but Ruschell is currently #5.
157: Johnstone v Jordan--Johnstone should win
165: Sponseller v Howe--very easy to discount Howe but he's had a great season. He and Colt are both undefeated in the Big Ten so winner gets #1 seed for tourney and probably avoids Morningstar as well. I give Colt a slight edge because I think he'll manage a few scores but Howe has wins over M* and Fay so no one should underestimate him. If Bucks are to win this dual, this match is key.
174: Rella v Nutt--Advantage Ohio State
184: Pucillo v ?--Can't think of who goes at this weight for Wiscy but Iron Mike will be coming off his matchup with Herbert. Should be a big win for tOSU.
197: Herbst v Cook--Not a good matchup
285: Massey v Morrison--Corey should keep it close.
Ohio State would appear to control this dual due to big advantages at 125, 133, 157, 174 and 184. 141, 149 and 165 are close. Wiscy has the edge at the last two weights.
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