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Discussion Topic: January 25th, 2016 Dual Impact Index p/b @NCOWrestling
Britt Malinsky added to this discussion on January 25, 2016
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Discussion Topic: January 25th, 2016 Dual Impact Index p/b @NCOWrestling
Pat Altvater added to this discussion on January 27, 2016
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Brit:
I am glad to see you posting your index on this site. Yours is one of my favorites to view each week. You seem to bring in more factors, and do a more thorough and deeper analysis than many of the other polls.
If I am interested in the depth of competition a wrestler has had to accumulate a good record, yours is the only good yardstick to compare his competition to others.
Also, you and wrestling report are the only polls that show any consideration or analysis below, or predictions lower, than 20 in each class. It's nice to see who is gaining traction, but may be just under the radar. This is especially true for younger wrestlers and smaller schools. Plus you include red-shirts here, that no-one else addresses. - Your is the best site if I want to evaluate the wrestlers for two teams in a dual (though wrestle-stats is pretty good also).
The only caution with reviewing your analysis, is that it definitely gets much more accurate after the first of the year. This index functions best after the effects of CKLV, Scuffle, and the Midlands. Your analysis needs a fair data-base to establish patterns and comparisons of competition.
One example of your polls relevance, is the case of Jake Ryan. When you see a third year wrestler (although he's still technically a red-shirt freshman), with a one-loss season (which was to defending 157 champ IMAR) at the end of January on the defending national champion team, you would expect a little better treatment in the polls. - But, as your analysis correctly points out, he still hasn't had the toughest competition to date. But, he will soon get a steady dose of that to have the opportunity to prove he belongs higher. But in the meantime, he is floating between 10 and 15 depending on the poll you look at. - Without your SOS rating, I wouldn't be able to identify that factor as limiting him as easily.
I think the same is true with true freshman Myles Martin right now, he has a fairly good resume, but just doesn't have enough matches against top flight competition to warrant being higher at this point. The Big Tens and NCAA's are coming soon, which will show us exactly where he is at.
Your minimum number of matches required certainly has an effect on your weight classes also. In OSU's case, we've had three wrestlers who will wrestle in the NCAA's that didn't show up in your class rankings. That was Bo Jordan (who did show up this week), Hunter Stieber, and Kyle Snyder. Those are three high-powered wrestlers that weren't given consideration in their: 1) weight class rankings, 2) team dual, and 3) team tournament rankings. - These three will make a big impact on all of those.
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Discussion Topic: January 25th, 2016 Dual Impact Index p/b @NCOWrestling
Britt Malinsky added to this discussion on January 27, 2016
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Quote from Pat Altvater's post:
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"Brit:
I am glad to see you posting your index on this site. Yours is one of my favorites to view each week. You seem to bring in more factors, and do a more thorough and deeper analysis than many of the other polls.
If I am interested in the depth of competition a wrestler has had to accumulate a good record, yours is the only good yardstick to compare his competition to others.
Also, you and wrestling report are the only polls that show any consideration or analysis below, or predictions lower, than 20 in each class. It's nice to see who is gaining traction, but may be just under the radar. This is especially true for younger wrestlers and smaller schools. Plus you include red-shirts here, that no-one else addresses. - Your is the best site if I want to evaluate the wrestlers for two teams in a dual (though wrestle-stats is pretty good also).
The only caution with reviewing your analysis, is that it definitely gets much more accurate after the first of the year. This index functions best after the effects of CKLV, Scuffle, and the Midlands. Your analysis needs a fair data-base to establish patterns and comparisons of competition.
One example of your polls relevance, is the case of Jake Ryan. When you see a third year wrestler (although he's still technically a red-shirt freshman), with a one-loss season (which was to defending 157 champ IMAR) at the end of January on the defending national champion team, you would expect a little better treatment in the polls. - But, as your analysis correctly points out, he still hasn't had the toughest competition to date. But, he will soon get a steady dose of that to have the opportunity to prove he belongs higher. But in the meantime, he is floating between 10 and 15 depending on the poll you look at. - Without your SOS rating, I wouldn't be able to identify that factor as limiting him as easily.
I think the same is true with true freshman Myles Martin right now, he has a fairly good resume, but just doesn't have enough matches against top flight competition to warrant being higher at this point. The Big Tens and NCAA's are coming soon, which will show us exactly where he is at.
Your minimum number of matches required certainly has an effect on your weight classes also. In OSU's case, we've had three wrestlers who will wrestle in the NCAA's that didn't show up in your class rankings. That was Bo Jordan (who did show up this week), Hunter Stieber, and Kyle Snyder. Those are three high-powered wrestlers that weren't given consideration in their: 1) weight class rankings, 2) team dual, and 3) team tournament rankings. - These three will make a big impact on all of those."
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I had one coach tell me over the summer that he always loved seeing his wrestler ranked 46th when he got the Index in his inbox.
Speaking with 20/20 hindsight, the one issue I had is that I did my first release a week too early, IMO. What you said is entirely accurate, of course. I wanted to get something out for coaches participating at CKLV to look at in terms of their seeding meeting, but in retrospect, I probably would have been better off holding that until post-Cliff Keen.
For what it's worth, if they (and their combined three matches) were in the rankings this week, Hunter Stieber wouldn't be ranked (Cody Burcher has a higher rating than him, but for the sake of this discussion, he'd be 43rd), and Snyder would be third (behind Coon and Gwiazdowski), and Ohio State would still be fifth in all three of the component-based rankings (the only dual he'd flip in either dual ranking is Iowa, and Ohio State would still lose the tiebreaker for fourth to Mizzou; in the tournament ranking, Snyder wouldn't make up the 30-point gap to Mizzou).
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Discussion Topic: January 25th, 2016 Dual Impact Index p/b @NCOWrestling
Pat Altvater added to this discussion on January 27, 2016
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Thanks, Britt!
Good info.
But, I am still hoping the Bucks pull-off another miracle come tournament time.
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