Discussion

Folkstyle

G-R and Freestyle

Teams

Rankings

2019 UWW Senior World Championships
2019 Final X
2019 Junior Greco-Roman National Duals
2019 Junior Boys' Freestyle National Duals
Division changes for 2019-2020 OHSAA Dual Championships
2019 AAU National Duals (Disney Duals)
2019 Yasar Dogu International Tournament
2019 Junior and 16U National Championships (Fargo)
Division changes for 2019-2020 OHSAA Individual Championships

Forum Home

Forum Search

Register

Log in

Log in to check your private messages

Profile

► Add to the Discussion

Discussion Topic: 2016-2017 top 5
Patrick Niemann added to this discussion on January 11, 2017

It has been relatively boring on this thread. In an attempt to get some action I would like to know everyone's top 5 team prediction at the NCAA tournament.

It seems to me it is a two horse race between Okie State and PSU. However, I am a homer and am looking forward to the Bucks shaking some things up.

My top 5 prediction sure to be wrong....
1) PSU. I feel they have 2 locks at 149 & 157 and each will score their share of bonus points which I do believe pushes them to the top.

I also believe 125 & 184 have great chances of making the finals.

2) tOSU. Homer glasses on and the fact that coach Ryan seems to have the Buckeyes peek at the right time with regularity throughout his time at tOSU.

I see Champs at 133 & 285. As well as a finalist at 174. Top 3 at 149 as well as top 5 at 184 & 197. If Bo can win it, which I don't think is an unreasonable prediction it might put them in position for a runner up finish. For that to happen, they will need contributions from 125, 141 & (157 or 165). It would be great to see Jake turn this season around.

3) Okie State- possible 9 AA's with a solid favorite at 141. Possible finalist at 133. One reason I can see tOSU topping them because I don't see guarantees on the podium. Colloca in my opinion can place as high as 2nd but could also miss out. I think the former has better odds but anything and everything can and has happened in March.

4) IOWA- with as good a chance as getting 2nd as 4th. But I don't think they have a lock as champ. Gillman is close but I like Suriano. 133, 149 could both be finalists. As could 285.
This weekends match up with Okie St will give me a better idea with some of the other weight classes.

5) Nebraska. Have quite a bit of talent and could have 4-6 AA's.
VT or a healthy Mizzou could also make a run at the too 5. But I feel the top 4 might not finish in the order I have picked but should all land somewhere in the top 4.

It would be very interesting if 2 or all 3 of Michigans red shirts were in play.
If Hall's RS is pulled nobody catches PSU.



Add to the discussion and quote this      

Discussion Topic: 2016-2017 top 5
Mark Niemann added to this discussion on January 11, 2017

I told you - Oklahoma State is MUCH better than you give them credit for. They have a dual THIS Sunday against Iowa. We shall see then.

ps: The #HipHeist once saved John Smith's life. True story!



Add to the discussion and quote this      

Discussion Topic: 2016-2017 top 5
Patrick Niemann added to this discussion on January 11, 2017

How much better than 9 AA's can they be?
10!



Add to the discussion and quote this      

Discussion Topic: 2016-2017 top 5
Brandon Olinger added to this discussion on January 11, 2017

Alright I’ll play…

Let me first say that I think this year has a chance to be one of the tightest team races ever, assuming that PSU doesn’t pull Hall’s RS. If they pull it, well, then it’s a battle for 2nd.

In no particular order....I see a 3 team race for 1st and then 2 more teams fighting for the 4th team trophy.

1(a) Okie State – I see a legit 9 potential AA’s. It doesn’t hurt that their bubble AA guys are in weight classes that are not very deep (more top heavy). Bubble AA guys Piccininni, Chandler Rogers, and Austin Schafer are in weight classes that are dominated by a couple of very good guys and then it’s a crap shoot after them. I could see all three of them in the 5-8 range. Brock, Collica, Boyd, Crutchmer and Joe Smith all have top 4 potential. Collica and Boyd were both top 4 last year and I could even see Collica in the finals this year. Heil is a returning national champ, on a very remarkable winning streak, and nothing tells me he can’t make the finals again – even in a deep weight class. If they have 9 AA’s including a champ – give them THE trophy.

1(b) Penn State – Retherford and Nolf both look untouchable and bonus scoring machines. Nickal has proven himself the favorite to this point to be in the finals opposite Dean and he also has bonus potential. Suriano is a legit finalist threat and we will know soon enough if he can handle Gilman (January 20th). I could see Nevills and Joseph anywhere from 5-8. Don’t sleep on McCutcheon at 197. The weight class isn’t very deep and he can reach that podium. If he does, we are in trouble. If put 4 in the finals with 2 champs, and 3 guys who score a lot of bonus points, and another 2-3 AA’s in the 5-8 range – give them THE trophy.

1(c) Ohio State – Ohio State is definitely in the hunt for the title, but the margin for error is razor thin. Snyder is the odds on favorite to win it all, NaTo, Micah, BoJo all have finalist potential. With NaTo and BoJo good chance to win it all. I can see Kollin Moore 4-8. He’s impressed this year but you know how crazy it gets when the lights come on in March. MyMar is a wild card. He’s a stud, we all know what he did last year, however he has obviously hit some bumps this year but I expect him to come on when it counts. For the Bucks to win it, we need the MyMar of last year. We need him top 3-4 and I can see him anywhere from 2-8 (I’d say 1-8 but if I’m being honest, I think Dean is untouchable…no offense to anyone). Losing Hayes hurt us. Pletcher is doing remarkably well up a weight class and is starting to figure things out. In order for the Bucks to win it all we need either JRod or Pletcher to reach that podium, if not both. If Ohio State can put 3-4 guys in the finals with 2 champs, 2 more guys place 3-5, and another guy sneak on the podium – give us THE trophy.


4(a) Iowa – Gilman is favorite to win 125 and I expect him to do so. Clark, Sorensen, & Kemerer all have finalist potential. Brooks is wrestling really well this year and I can see him anywhere 3-8. Meyer and Stoll both have AA potential anywhere in the 5-8 range on a good day. Unfortunately for them, no points at 141, 165, & 197 will hurt them. However they are in the hunt for a trophy if all goes well.

4(b) Virginia Tech – Don’t sleep on this team. Dance has finalist potential at 125 and I could see him place anywhere from 1-4 depending on how things shake out. Chishko is a returning AA and I could see him in the 6-8 range at 149. Epperly at 174 has finalist potential and could even win it all – don’t forget, he lost first round of NCAA’s last year and reeled off 7 straight to finish 3rd. Zavatsky is good. So good that I could see him anywhere in the 2-8 range at 184. Haught at 197 and Walz at 285 both have top 3-5 potential.

Needless to say I am very much looking forward to attending this event this year....well I am every year, but you get my drift.



Add to the discussion and quote this      

Discussion Topic: 2016-2017 top 5
Mark Niemann added to this discussion on January 11, 2017

Quote from Patrick Niemann's post:

"How much better than 9 AA's can they be?
10!"



This one goes to 11.



Add to the discussion and quote this      

Discussion Topic: 2016-2017 top 5
Jim Kessen added to this discussion on January 12, 2017

Quote from Mark Niemann's post:

"I told you - Oklahoma State is MUCH better than you give them credit for. They have a dual THIS Sunday against Iowa. We shall see then.

ps: The #HipHeist once saved John Smith's life. True story!"




Breakdown of the dual Okie State vs. Iowa
http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/57/oklahoma-state/34/iowa



Add to the discussion and quote this      

Discussion Topic: 2016-2017 top 5
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on January 12, 2017

Deep down I think this is a three team race with PSU having the best odds although on paper Okie State looks a shade better. The third team I see is the Buckeyes who have longer odds but their top level talent keeps them in the conversation.

PSU has two near title locks in Retherford and Nolf and they don't just win...they dominate. Nickal--another bonus point machine--has emerged as the number 2 guy at 184. Nevills and Suriano have high placement potential and then there's Guilbon, Joseph, Mccutheon and Shakur with AA possibilities. But here's the reason I like PSU to win it...besides their history of guys continuously getting better....Mark Hall is a title contender the moment he hits the mat. I've got to believe that Cael is going to pull his redshirt although I'm in the minority in that regard.

Okie State has an excellent lineup with arguably more AA potential any team in the country. But Heil is probably their best wrestler with guys like Brock, Smith and Collica also having top 4-5 potential. I just don't have the same level of confidence in Okie State that I do in PSU to peak and deliver at the right time.

I do think Ohio State has the feel of a Cinderella. Snyder is a likely champ and I like Nate to win it as well. Not sure what to make of BoJo at this point although we know he's very good. But he's hardly competed and it's a tricky weight with huge variance in styles. I think he can win it as well....but if Hall comes out, his odds reduce a lot. I'll take Bo over Z. Valencia though. Micah has looked excellent all season. He looks to be a solid mid to high AA candidate. Moore at 197 has also been terrific. So that's five AA's...and we haven't touched on Myles Martin.

Forget that MM won it last year and ask yourself honestly what to expect. My answer--anywhere on the podium would be terrific. He's dominated many opponents this year but has lost four matches to other AA caliber competitors at this weight (Dean, Zavatsky, Renda and Dechow). Bottom line is that Myles has his hands full at this deep 184 pound class. Now...what I like is that we know he's talented, coachable...and we've seen him win before when it was "money time." There's a lot to be said for previous high placement as it's a reliable indicator that the wrestler will do it again.

After Myles, the Bucks need Jose Rodriguez to peak at the right time. Not easy for a guy making a big cut and wrestling with injury. I think the draw is critical for him but if he can get a couple reasonably winnable early bouts, he's on the podium.

So that's your big seven for Ohio State with Burcher and Pletcher having the ability to chip in a few.

Now, would three finalists and four more AA's win it? Answer--if it doesn't you just tip your hat to whomever beat you.



Add to the discussion and quote this      

Discussion Topic: 2016-2017 top 5
Brandon Olinger added to this discussion on January 12, 2017

Great write-up Hank. And I pretty much agree with everything you said.



Add to the discussion and quote this      

Discussion Topic: 2016-2017 top 5
Mark Niemann added to this discussion on January 12, 2017

Excellent post, Hank.

Brandon - same to you.

Kudos (begrudgingly, of course) to Pat for opening the can of worms.



Add to the discussion and quote this      

Discussion Topic: 2016-2017 top 5
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on January 12, 2017

Quote from Brandon Olinger's post:

"Great write-up Hank. And I pretty much agree with everything you said."



Thanks although Iowa fans would disagree. They're around the same level as Bucks right now but I like us better because of higher finalist potential.



Add to the discussion and quote this      

Discussion Topic: 2016-2017 top 5
Cory Surles added to this discussion on January 13, 2017

Penn State
Ohio State
Oklahoma State
Iowa
Virginia Tech

I think what separates the top two is bonus potential.

Penn State has multiple guys who could bonus through semis (zain, nolf,hall (if pulled), Nickal) Coupled with some mid-high placement material (suriano, nevills, Mccutheon, and Joseph)

Ohio State I think we are the wild card because we have guys who will most definitely give us early bonus points. (Snyder, Tomosello, Micah, Bo, Myles, and Moore can all bonus in the early rounds. That's 6 guys that should be in the top 6. The key to this team winning is Rodriguez and /or Pletcher reaching the podium. If that happens and we still lose so be it.

Oklahoma State has a potential 9 all Americans...but they don't have a bonus machine. I don't trust them at nationals. I've been the last three years and it always seems like they fall victim to a few upsets. They probably have 7 all Americans with most in the 4-8 probably isn't going to be enough without a good amount of bonus points.

Iowa I can see possibly jumping Oklahoma State...but they only have 2 guys (Kremerer and Gilman) who really go after bonus. They could have 4 finalist and 3 low all Americans...they could be sneaky. But I don't see all the chips falling their way. The last couple of years their fringe guys have gave them little help at nationals.

Virginia Tech....Just a solid team! They could really make some noise if all goes well Dance, Chisko, epperly, zavatsky, Haught, and walz all have high placement potential. That's 6 top 6 guys however I don't see a champ. But all those guys could get 3rd...they have a couple other veteran guys that can sneak on the podium to make it interesting...

This will be the most competitive nationals...And I think a Nebraska or Missouri could shake things up as well...should be a fun year!! But long story short....If Hall's redshirt is pulled this thing is over. lol



Add to the discussion and quote this      

► Add to the Discussion