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Discussion Topic: Who's Winning Next Year--by percentage of likelihood.
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on April 19, 2017

125: Cruz 40% Suriano 40% Field 20%--Lizak and Piccinini would seem to be the biggest comp to the "big two" unless Spencer Lee is healthy.
133: Nate 55% Gross/Micic/Brock 45%--Nate has had two consecutive amazing seasons. I respect him more for coming back for third twice than I can put into words. Still, there are three very tough competitors.
141: Heil 45% Field 55%--I think Heil's biggest obstacle will be the new rule change with regard to scrambling. You can no longer remain on your back for long periods of time. This could keep him from 3peating.
149: Retherford 90% Field 10%. Micah and Sorenson have their work cut out for them. 90% means you're going to win unless hurt or sick.
157: Nolf 90% Field 10%--See 149
165: Imar 60% Joseph 30% Massa 10%--Imar is a superb talent but Joseph made some adjustments that caught him by surprise in the finals. Now, he'll be ready. Massa has an outside shot.
174: Zahid 45% Hall 35% Bo 20%--A lot of critical calls went Hall's way at NCAA's and that's not likely to happen again. Zahid had the most impressive season while Bo is the one guy with the ability to defeat either one.
184: Nickal 65% Martin 30% Field 5%--Tough weight class with Nickal as an obvious favorite and only one guy that we know can beat him.
197: Moore 60% Field 40%--Tough weight to evaluate other than the obvious...Kollin Moore is terrific and likely to be better.
285: Snyder 90% Coon 10%--Nevills has no chance to beat Snyder but can he beat Coon? Coon is the only guy that I can see having a shot to pull the upset due to his size and skill.



Last edited by Hank Kornblut on April 19, 2017; edited 1 time in total

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Discussion Topic: Who's Winning Next Year--by percentage of likelihood.
Mark Niemann added to this discussion on April 19, 2017

This is fantastic, Hank! I like it the first time through. I'll most read through it a few times and consider a few more names/scenarios.

141: Heil (Ok St.) - at first thought I agreed with your assessment of he new rules. However, on second thought, he's a true gamer. I think he and Coach Smith will adjust and Heil will continue on as before. (Note: there may be bumps in the road during the regular season, but I think, in the end, he locks up another title.)



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Discussion Topic: Who's Winning Next Year--by percentage of likelihood.
James Kessen added to this discussion on April 20, 2017

From everything I have read on Iowa forum Lee will RS next year. So I would replace him with Fix.

I have seen reports that suggest that ASU 157-165-174 could move up a weight so they can squeeze Tsirtis in the lineup at 157.



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Discussion Topic: Who's Winning Next Year--by percentage of likelihood.
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on April 20, 2017

Quote from James Kessen's post:

"From everything I have read on Iowa forum Lee will RS next year. So I would replace him with Fix.

I have seen reports that suggest that ASU 157-165-174 could move up a weight so they can squeeze Tsirtis in the lineup at 157."



At 125, Lizak is the biggest challenger outside the two I named. Daton Fix is almost certain to redshirt as Piccini and Brock stay put for one more season as well as Heil at 141. After Heil graduates, Fix steps in and guys move about.

The ASU moves would be sensible although Z. Valencia will lose some of his size advantage at 184.



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Discussion Topic: Who's Winning Next Year--by percentage of likelihood.
Brandon Olinger added to this discussion on April 20, 2017

Great post. I think you make a lot of great points and I like your "projected" winners.

IMO, 125 will be Suriano's to lose next year. Just remember, prior to the injury he had one 1-point loss to Gilman and previously crushed Cruz.

I favor Tomasello at 133 but as you said, it will not be easy. Gross is the real deal and Micic has a style that can surely frustrate Tomasello.

141 is interesting and will be deep again. Heil just proves to keep on winning however, I don't think the rule change will effect him as much as some might think. As evident in his finals match, he can score when he wants and has great offense. So many studs however return to this weight not to mention some really good newcomers. I'd really like to see a Kevin Jack vs. Heil match.

149 Retherford is obviously one of the best regardless of weight. It will be interesting to see where Pantaleo goes coming off of RS. Took 5th as true freshman and is really really good. Not saying he is going to knock of Retherford but he may make all the more challenging for Micah and Sorensen.

At 157 I would even make the percentage something like Nolf 99%, field 1%.

I agree that IMar is the favorite at 165 I'm just curious what version of IMar we see. That weight will keep getting tougher. I actually favor Massa over Joseph in a rematch (yes, I know Joseph beat him at NCAA's).

I actually favor Bo at 174 next year. It won't be easy and Hall obviously will pose a huge threat. I see Zahid moving up to 184, IMO. How he held 174 all season was impressive. Hopefully Bo gets to train full time next season and is finally healed...well at least as healed as he can be. There are however, a couple of guys who didn't AA that have the goods to win it all (Epperly and Preisch) and will be interesting to see the jump that Amine makes after a freshman season that saw him finish 4th.

Bo Nickal is the favorite at 184, IMO, until proven otherwise. I learned my lesson this year. Obviously MyMar has the goods to beat him and will be in the running as well and obviously so does Zahid. If I had to rank them at this current moment, it would be 1. Nickal 2. Zahid 3. MyMar. Don't forget that Pete Renda is coming out of RS and he took 3rd 2 years ago at this weight. Also had a victory over MyMar at Midlands this year but I wouldn't think too much into that considering MyMar hadn't really been training for Midlands.

Give me Moore at 197 all day long. He was so impressive last year while obviously still very raw. His ceiling is very high and he's not even close to hitting it yet.

I see 285 going like this.....Snyder. Snyder. Snyder. And some more Snyder. Coon is big and pretty good but so were Medbery and Gwiazdowski and whatever European Block dude you want to mention.

Just my $0.02 for what it's worth...likely not even $0.02.

-Brando



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Discussion Topic: Who's Winning Next Year--by percentage of likelihood.
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on April 21, 2017

Brandon: I'd love to favor Jeff "Bo" Jordan. The issue is he's missed large portions of the last two seasons with injury. There wasn't one point last season when I watched him and thought he looked really sharp because he'd barely been on the mat. His riding--once a strength--seemed almost non-existent and he struggled more with his defense. Having said that--look where he finished---2nd. His career is 3, 3, 2. I have no doubt he could win it with proper training and preparation.

Incidentally, Bo made academic All American along with Snyder, Micah and Nate. Pretty dmn impressive that four superstuds like these guys did well in the classroom. Esp. amazing that Bo did so well when he's also a husband and father.



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Discussion Topic: Who's Winning Next Year--by percentage of likelihood.
Luke Moore added to this discussion on April 21, 2017

It's funny how critical we are (I am included) of Bo. Every time I watch him, I get frustrated, because I think he should just dominate people. But, as Hank pointed out, his career is unreal, and he could be the favorite next year.

I think Nolf, Retherford and Nickal will not be touched, nor will Snyder.

I think Nickal made the leap to unbeatable status last year (even though MyMar beat him once, it won't happen again).

NaTo deserves a title so bad, hope he gets it! He has been the best wrestler in the country for 2 years, he will get it done next year!



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Discussion Topic: Who's Winning Next Year--by percentage of likelihood.
Pat Altvater added to this discussion on April 21, 2017

Quote from Luke Moore's post:

"

I think Nickal made the leap to unbeatable status last year (even though MyMar beat him once, it won't happen again).

"



Don't be so sure. And, that is now twice, IN THE BIG STAGE, that Myles has beaten Nickal.

Myles Martin is Nickal's kryptonite!



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Discussion Topic: Who's Winning Next Year--by percentage of likelihood.
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on April 21, 2017

I'm sure Bo Nickal will prove to be as unbeatable as Dan Gable, Lincoln McIlravy, Terry Brands, Brent Metcalf, Imar and Gabe Dean.



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