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Discussion Topic: My Way Too Long NCAA Point Projection
Jason L. Jackson added to this discussion on September 7, 2017

Points projection – 2018 NCAA Championships


125
Ohio State – Nathan Tomasello – I believe that NATO will be in the finals (I know, quite a limb I’m going out on there). For points, that’s 12 for placement and 4 advancement. I could see 3 bonus points, giving him 19. There are 4 points up for grabs in the finals. I think NATO ends up a bookend champion, giving him 23 points total.

Penn State - ??? – Not an NCAA qualifier, so 0 points.

133
Ohio State – Luke Pletcher – Pletcher will be top 5, and could finish as high as top 3. I’ll average that out and give him 4th. That’s 9 placement points. If we assume 3 wins to the semis and then 1 win in the consis, that’s 3.5 advancement points. Give him 1 bonus point for a major somewhere, and that’s 13.5 points.

Penn State – Cory Keener – Keener is a multiple time NCAA qualifier. He is 2-6 in his 3 trips there. I see him improving, but not that much. At some point you are what you are. I see Keener getting 1 win in the championship bracket, 1 in the consolation bracket, and 1 bonus point, for a total of 2.5 points.

141
Ohio State – Joey McKenna – McKenna will be looking to match (or better) his freshman year performance. I see him doing just that, and will call him 3rd for this projection. That is 10 placement points and 3.5 advancement points. While he is not a bonus point machine, I think he gets at least 1, knowing the team championship is on the line. That’s a total of 14.5 points.

Penn State – Jared Cortez/Nick Lee – I think Lee is the better wrestler, but not by such a margin that they pull his shirt. I put Cortez on the same level as Keener and five him 2.5 points.

149
Ohio State – Ke’Shawn Hayes – Hayes was looking good until his knee injury last year. I see Hayes in the round of 12 with a tough match to become an All-American. That would be 2 wins and 2 losses. I think he gets 1 bonus point as well. That’s 3 points for Hayes. I think he could do better than that, but I’m trying not to be super homer here. I’ll revisit this during the season and adjust based on performance up to that point.

Penn State – Zain Retherford – Hammer. The rest of the NCAA is the nail. Scored 28 last year. Could actually score as many as 30 this year. I’ll say he gets 28.5.

So, through five weights I have the score as follows:
Ohio State – 54
Penn State – 33.5
All in favor of stopping the NCAA tournament after these weights, say aye!

157
Ohio State – Micah Jordan – I think Micah will be the same wrestler he was last year, great from neutral, OK on top, bad on bottom. I think he will run into someone at nationals that is able to defend, ride and will take him out a round earlier than expected. He will come back through the consis and take 5th. That’s 7 placement points and 3 advancement points (2 champ. wins, 2 consi. wins). Give him 2 bonus points for a total of 12.

Penn State – Jason Nolf – The returning national champ scored 27 last year. Give him a bump to 28 this year. Ugh.

165
Ohio State – Te’Shan Campbell – Campbell scored 3 points last year (1 champ. win, 1 consi win, 1 tech fall). I think he improves some, but I’m not ready to call him an AA just yet. Let’s give him 2 extra consi wins and another bonus point, for a total of 5.

Penn State – Vincenzo Joseph – Joseph scored 23 points last year including his surprising fall over IMar in the finals. I think he takes a step back this year and places third. I’ve got him getting 3 championship wins and 1 consi win. He gets 10 placement points and 3.5 advancement points. Joseph will match his bonus from last year, picking up 3 bonus points. That gives him 16.5 total.

**Updated score – Ohio State – 71, Penn State – 68. Ugh.***

174
Ohio State – Bo Jordan – Looking to become a 4x AA and finally get a title, I think Bo Jordan turns it on a little this year. I think he gets back to the finals and finally gets his title. I’m giving him 4 advancement points and 16 placement points. Bonus was missing from Bo’s game last year as he only picked up 1 bonus point at the NCAA tourney. That has to increase this year, and I think it does. I’ll give him 3, for a total of 23 points.

Penn State – Mark Hall – Hall scored 22 last year, but I have him dropping from 1st to 2nd. That’s 12 placement points and 4 advancement points. Hall picked up 2.5 bonus points last year, and I think he ups that to 4 this year. I give him a total of 20 points.

184
Ohio State – Myles Martin – Martin placed 5th last year. Brooks was his kryptonite last year, and he’s gone. Renda and Valencia, if at this weight, could jump him. I’m going to be conservative and give MyMar 3rd. That’s 3.5 advancement points, 10 placement points, and I see 3 bonus points as well, for a total of 16.5 points.

Penn State – Bo Nickal – I’m secretly hoping that MyMar and Nickal end up either the 1-4 or 2-3, as MyMar knows he can beat Nickal, especially when it counts. However, I am putting Nickal back in the finals and giving him the same 27.5 he scored last year. I think it is more likely that he doesn’t pick up 3 falls and a tech this year, but I will still project it.

**Score update – Ohio State – 110.5, Penn State – 115.5. Even though OSU is losing, I’m encouraged.***

197
Ohio State – Kollin Moore – Moore will be ranked 1st to start the season and I think he ends there as well. Downey and Micklus will be tough outs, but I think his relentless pressure and variety of attacks gets him his 1st title. That would be 16 placement and 4 advancement points. Moore scored 5 bonus points last year, and while I’m not counting on a fall, I think he could turn a couple of those majors into techs. I’ll cut that to 4.5 bonus, for a total of 24.5.

Penn State – Matt McCutcheon/Anthony Cassar – I think McCutcheon wins the spot and jumps from R12 to 5th. I see 3 advancement points, 7 placement points and 2 bonus points, for a total of 12.

***Score update – Ohio State – 135, Penn State – 127.5. Hmmm…***

285
Ohio State – Kyle Snyder – To quote Bret Hart, he is the best there is, the best there was, the best there will ever be! 16 placement points, 4 advancement points and 4 bonus points, for a total of 24.

Penn State – Nick Nevills – Nevills took 5th last year. Coon enters but Medberry and Walz are gone. I am slotting him at 4th, as I don’t see him beating Coon or Hall. That gives him 3.5 advancement points and 10 placement points. He could just as easily place 5th, as he beat Kasper in OT and that could be reversed. He scored 0 bonus last year and I don’t see that changing, and he scores 13.5 points.

Final scores – Ohio State – 149, Penn State – 141.

I tried not to be best case scenario guy, but I don’t think I way overestimated anything. If you reverse the 174 final, then it would be a tie. I think Ohio State has upside with Hayes, Campbell and MyMar. Obviously Keener and Cortez/Lee could score more as well. It’s going to be a dogfight, and I think Tom Ryan will have the Bucks looking for more bonus this year.

#GoBucks



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Discussion Topic: My Way Too Long NCAA Point Projection
Jack Muni added to this discussion on September 7, 2017

let's hope it all comes down to heavyweight. And let Nevills be his opponent. Who better to finish the tournament than Kyle Snyder?



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Discussion Topic: My Way Too Long NCAA Point Projection
Cory Surles added to this discussion on September 7, 2017

Great Summary and Read...playing devils advocate...we need everything to go right...tomasello and bo has to win. McKenna and Mymar have to take at least 3rd...chances all of those happening aren't bad but not the greatest. Not too Homerish :). But I could see this coming down to Kyle in Columbus! Just adding one more thing to his legacy. The team champion probably won't win by more than 5 barring any major injuries.



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Discussion Topic: My Way Too Long NCAA Point Projection
Justin Hayes added to this discussion on September 7, 2017

Good stuff!



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Discussion Topic: My Way Too Long NCAA Point Projection
Roe Fox added to this discussion on September 7, 2017

Great stuff as always, Jason.

As to 197, two things re Downey:

1. I'll believe he is wrestling in March when I see it; and
2. He and his father have called out Nickal so much it would be cowardly not to go 184, though that could impact Myles. I think Myles would destroy Downey, though. Just far more talented and looking at the recent pictures of the team he is now all of 184.



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Discussion Topic: My Way Too Long NCAA Point Projection
Michael Rodriguez added to this discussion on September 7, 2017

Jason...great breakdown and great read. Thanks.

I think that's very close to a "best case scenario" for the Buckeyes. It's totally possible, but 133, 141, 174 are likely a spot or two too high. Does anyone "in the know" have information on Bo Jordan's health? It feels like he hasn't been 100% since his freshman year. If he's at full strength this year, then maybe I could see the call at 174. Pletcher had a great tru-frosh campaign, but AA is a lot to expect, let alone 4th. Flo has him at 9th, I could see him 6,7,8...and that's an amazing finish for the true sophomore. McKenna is a bad ass, but he's a bad ass that didn't place last year in a crowded weight where almost everyone comes back. Third is a tall order. I personally hope he makes the finals this year and wins it next year. But hoping and saying he's going to do it are two different things.



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Discussion Topic: My Way Too Long NCAA Point Projection
James Kessen added to this discussion on September 7, 2017

I saw a tweet from coach Ryan that said he was a 100% healthy and then showed a video of Bo deadlift 505 lbs. he looks massive



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Discussion Topic: My Way Too Long NCAA Point Projection
Matt Mace added to this discussion on September 8, 2017

Great analysis Jason. I can't find a single thing I disagree with!
Michael, I like to think of myself as a realistic homer. I don't think those predictions are too optimistic. I fully expect Pletcher to place right around 4th. I think McKenna could win a title at 141 (assuming he goes there), but he has losses to Thorn, Eierman and Meredith at this weight, so I understand any reservations. I don't think McKenna needs to have a career weekend to get 3rd or better (in fact he's already done it), he actually just needs to wrestle at his ability and not have a bad weekend like last year at NCAAs. It will be fun to watch 141 this year with Ashnault, Thorn and Kevin Jack on the schedule, not to mention Gasca and Profaci.



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Discussion Topic: My Way Too Long NCAA Point Projection
Michael Rodriguez added to this discussion on September 8, 2017

Matt...I agree that Jason's predictions COULD happen, I don't think they will, or I don't see evidence supporting it happening. Ohio State has five legitimate title contenders (I'm counting Martin), only one a defending champ. He has them winning four championships. Penn State has five DEFENDING CHAMPIONS and he has them winning three. I guarantee that if Ohio State had five defending champs, they'd all be favored to repeat.

I don't think Joseph or Hall get nearly enough credit from non-PSU fans. Go back and watch their NCAA tourney. They were amazing, and in my opinion they were the best wrestlers in their weight classes. In think many non-PSU fans think Hall and Joseph's title runs were similar to Martin's from the year before. I don't see it that way. I don't think they "got hot". I think they were better than everyone else in the bracket by the end of the year.

I think Bo Jordan is incredible. He's been a model of consistency, but therein lies the problem. It seems a stretch for me to assume he's going to take it to another level his red-shirt senior season when he's been roughly the same (incredible) wrestler for four years. Now, if it's been an injury issue that's been nagging him for years and is now solved that may sway my view.

Pletcher finishing 4th I would love to see. I love the way this kid wrestles and he'll be at best weight. He also has a phenomenal training situation with Tomesello and McKenna and Hayes. Maybe he's that level? I hope so. I just wouldn't call it that way now. Full disclosure, I thought he would fail miserably last season as a true freshman wrestling up a weight. So clearly I don't know what I'm talking about.



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Discussion Topic: My Way Too Long NCAA Point Projection
Ben Watson added to this discussion on September 8, 2017

Quote from Michael Rodriguez's post:

" If he's at full strength this year, then maybe I could see the call at 174."



He beat Hall two weeks prior to a close finals loss (last TD was off desperation). At this point, I have not seen anything that makes me think the match isn't a toss up.



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Discussion Topic: My Way Too Long NCAA Point Projection
Michael Rodriguez added to this discussion on September 8, 2017

Ben...That's a fair point. The difference between the two of them isn't large. Traditionally though, when two wrestlers have split, the most recent match is given a little more weight. Also matches that "matter" like the NCAA finals would be given more weight. Both of those factors go in Hall's favor. Add to that Hall's performance over the summer and to me it's a combination of Jordan's consistency and Hall's trajectory.

Now, maybe Jordan has been resting and healing and building his body and he'll be a wrestler that we haven't seen before. I think I that would be great.



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Discussion Topic: My Way Too Long NCAA Point Projection
Matt Mace added to this discussion on September 8, 2017

I think you bring up an excellent point about Hall's trajectory. I don't think he has even come close to peaking out at this point in his wrestling career. Especially wrestling with Cael and company. Bo, I'm not sure I can say the same thing. Can he beat Hall? Absolutely. I would favor Hall in the rematch if I had to place a bet today though.



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Discussion Topic: My Way Too Long NCAA Point Projection
Michael Rodriguez added to this discussion on September 8, 2017

This isn't meant as a slight on Jordan. He's an amazing wrestler. He's had an amazing career. If he were to finish second or third again this year, you could count on one hand the Buckeyes that had better careers than him.



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Discussion Topic: My Way Too Long NCAA Point Projection
Joe Kinzel added to this discussion on September 9, 2017

Regarding Hall and BoJo, I have always been a big fan of the Jordan family. I took my sons to Jeff's camps and have followed BoJo and Micah since they were in middle school. No one is rooting for Bo more than me to win a title this year, excluding maybe his momma LOL.
Here are two things I think of as I look at the Bo vs Hall argument. First, let's not forget the fact that Hall was essentially wrestling up a weight class last year. He was a small 174 and still won a NC. That is pretty scary.
Secondly, we all know that Bo has been hampered by injury the past two seasons. That has to be tough. Another factor that I believe could be playing a roll in his mental approach is his family life. The kid is married with two young daughters. That commitment at home has to make it more challenging to give wrestling 100% especially when hampered by his toe/foot injury.
Again, my post is certainly not a knock on BoJo. I admire the heck out of this kid. Just a couple of thoughts bouncing around inside of my head.



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Discussion Topic: My Way Too Long NCAA Point Projection
Mark Niemann added to this discussion on September 9, 2017

Quote from Michael Rodriguez's post:

"This isn't meant as a slight on Jordan. He's an amazing wrestler. He's had an amazing career. If he were to finish second or third again this year, you could count on one hand the Buckeyes that had better careers than him."



Tommy & Logan? Would/Could you add Randleman??? The first two I mentioned are gold standards (with Logan actually being a platinum standard). L. Palmer was a 4xer too but if Bo finished top 3 I'd put him in front of Palmer.



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