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Discussion Topic: 2018 NCAA Team Championship: tOSU or PSU?
Justin Hayes added to this discussion on January 24, 2018

Flowrestling has tOSU with 120.5 points and PSU with 117 points.

Who will win and why do you think so?

I'm inclined to think the bonus point capability and emphasis on the part of PSU will win the day, especially if it is that close...



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Discussion Topic: 2018 NCAA Team Championship: tOSU or PSU?
Freddy Carr added to this discussion on January 24, 2018

PSU "looks" better to me, despite the 125 hole. Too many big point scorers.



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Discussion Topic: 2018 NCAA Team Championship: tOSU or PSU?
Michael Rodriguez added to this discussion on January 24, 2018

Penn State has five champs returning. I view two of them as heavy favorites and three of them as mild favorites. I happen to think four out of five repeat (I go back and forth on Hall). You figure they’ll have All Americans at heavyweight and probably 197 too. I don’t see it at 141. So that’s four champs, a runner-up and two mid-placers.

Ohio State is a heavy favorite at two weights with two other contenders. I happen to think all four win. I think every other weight AA’s (mid-level) with the exception of 165. Nine All Americans and four champs.

So the question is, is Penn State’s bonus worth two more All Americans? Initially I thought it was, but then I thought about how Tomasello, Martin, Moore and Snyder will all bonus through the quarters. Rertherford is in a class by himself (bonus point-wise), but Nolf, Joseph and Nickal all showed in that dual with Michigan that they’re not going to bonus past the quarters either.

I’ve assumed Penn State would repeat all year, too many champs, too much bonus. But as I lay it out for the first time, I think Ohio State wins a close one. How about that?



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Discussion Topic: 2018 NCAA Team Championship: tOSU or PSU?
Justin Hayes added to this discussion on January 25, 2018

Quote from Michael Rodriguez's post:

"Penn State has five champs returning. I view two of them as heavy favorites and three of them as mild favorites. I happen to think four out of five repeat (I go back and forth on Hall). You figure they’ll have All Americans at heavyweight and probably 197 too. I don’t see it at 141. So that’s four champs, a runner-up and two mid-placers.

Ohio State is a heavy favorite at two weights with two other contenders. I happen to think all four win. I think every other weight AA’s (mid-level) with the exception of 165. Nine All Americans and four champs.

So the question is, is Penn State’s bonus worth two more All Americans? Initially I thought it was, but then I thought about how Tomasello, Martin, Moore and Snyder will all bonus through the quarters. Rertherford is in a class by himself (bonus point-wise), but Nolf, Joseph and Nickal all showed in that dual with Michigan that they’re not going to bonus past the quarters either.

I’ve assumed Penn State would repeat all year, too many champs, too much bonus. But as I lay it out for the first time, I think Ohio State wins a close one. How about that?"



Darn interesting assessment.

I like that it is so close because that creates a greater likelihood that an non-tOSU/PSU variable outside of their purview will impact (maybe even crash!) the party...



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Discussion Topic: 2018 NCAA Team Championship: tOSU or PSU?
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on January 25, 2018

PSU's big five are almost certain to either be finalists or no worse than top three. And all will score bonus constantly. They won't score much at 125 or 133 but the emergence of Lee (141) and Cassar (197) is impossible to ignore. Will either of them place? How high? Both can score significantly but are not shoo ins to do it. 285 Nevills seems to be scuffling at the moment and does not look like a candidate for high placement either. PSU's high end finish would be five champs and 3 more AA's. Given their habit of scoring bonus, that would likely win it. On the other hand, let's say they have three champs, one second, one third, one sixth and one seventh with no placement at 125, 133 and 285? That could happen too.

Bucks have four solid finalist contenders at 285, 197, 184 and 125. Let's say they end up with two champs out of that crew. Put Pletcher at 7th, Mckenna at 6th, Micah 5th, and Bo 4th. Add in Hayes as a 7th. Will that beat out PSU?

My sense of things is that the Bucks big four needs to score a lot of bonus and could really use five finalists (Bo or Micah--how about both) to almost keep pace. Then everyone else has to chip in. Campbell with his bad knee at a deep 165 appears to be in trouble at the moment. Let's hope he can get healthy.



Last edited by Hank Kornblut on January 25, 2018; edited 1 time in total

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Discussion Topic: 2018 NCAA Team Championship: tOSU or PSU?
Justin Hayes added to this discussion on January 25, 2018

Any reasonable chance the Hawkeyes take 2nd place?



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Discussion Topic: 2018 NCAA Team Championship: tOSU or PSU?
Brady Hiatt added to this discussion on January 25, 2018

No.



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Discussion Topic: 2018 NCAA Team Championship: tOSU or PSU?
Ryan Mitchell added to this discussion on January 26, 2018

Quote from Michael Rodriguez's post:

"Penn State has five champs returning. I view two of them as heavy favorites and three of them as mild favorites. I happen to think four out of five repeat (I go back and forth on Hall). You figure they’ll have All Americans at heavyweight and probably 197 too. I don’t see it at 141. So that’s four champs, a runner-up and two mid-placers.

Ohio State is a heavy favorite at two weights with two other contenders. I happen to think all four win. I think every other weight AA’s (mid-level) with the exception of 165. Nine All Americans and four champs.

So the question is, is Penn State’s bonus worth two more All Americans? Initially I thought it was, but then I thought about how Tomasello, Martin, Moore and Snyder will all bonus through the quarters. Rertherford is in a class by himself (bonus point-wise), but Nolf, Joseph and Nickal all showed in that dual with Michigan that they’re not going to bonus past the quarters either.

I’ve assumed Penn State would repeat all year, too many champs, too much bonus. But as I lay it out for the first time, I think Ohio State wins a close one. How about that?"



Maybe I'm missing something, but if you have PSU 4 champs with Hall not winning and OSU 4, who do you like at 184?

I think 141 and 165 are huge weights. Joseph is the #1 at 165, but there are landmines all over the place. If Campbell gets healthy and makes a small run and Joseph stumbles even a little bit, that's a big OSU pick up. PSU right now outranks OSU at 141, but many like McKenna to AA, but don't assume Lee will. Martin beating Nickal in the finals would be an 8-point swing. Jordan beating Hall and/or Valencia is possible, but the injuries keep coming and it may be one of things that just isn't in the cards. Also, why does Pletcher get no chatter as a potential finalist? Ranked 2nd, undefeated. He seems like the guy on this team that will have to prove it before people believe it. Admittedly, I think he's the likeliest candidate for a finish below ranking.

Looking at the #'s, if things stay the way they are in rankings and both teams place that way, PSU will likely win with their superior bonus potential. If Tomasello makes the finals, Martin wins and McKenna does AA, I think Ohio St gets it done. I think the Buckeyes have a lot of upward mobility in the current rankings, whereas PSU is sitting at near the top of their potential. ANY egg-laying for OSU will likely dash their hopes.

I think OSU gets 4 champs (125, 184, 197, 285) and PSU 3 (149, 157, 174) and the Buckeyes hoist the trophy. If it is still close and the Buckeyes have finalists in the last 3 weights to try to win it, Cleveland will be rocking!



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Discussion Topic: 2018 NCAA Team Championship: tOSU or PSU?
Michael Rodriguez added to this discussion on January 26, 2018

Ryan...I go back and forth on Hall, but when I say Penn State gets four out of five returners, Hall is one of them. Bo Nickal would be the runner-up in that scenario. After watching them both wrestle Abounader, Martin looks like the better wrestler. Combine that with the fact that he has a couple wins over Nickal in the past, and that’s the reason for the reason for the pick. Clearly it’s a close call, but it’s don’t think it’s unreasonable.

Hall, actually is in the tougher situation with Valencia crushing it.



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Discussion Topic: 2018 NCAA Team Championship: tOSU or PSU?
Michael Rodriguez added to this discussion on January 26, 2018

I may have to re-evaluate my take on Penn State at 141. Nick Lee looked very good tonight.



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Discussion Topic: 2018 NCAA Team Championship: tOSU or PSU?
Roe Fox added to this discussion on January 27, 2018

I thought the same thing. What looked like a certain win at 141 in the dual looks iffy right now.



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Discussion Topic: 2018 NCAA Team Championship: tOSU or PSU?
Roe Fox added to this discussion on January 27, 2018

I thought the same thing. What looked like a certain win at 141 in the dual looks iffy right now.



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Discussion Topic: 2018 NCAA Team Championship: tOSU or PSU?
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on January 27, 2018

PSU will probably have four NCAA champs and three more AA's--all high. All seven wrestlers will score bonus. The only silver lining for Buckeye Fans is that Nick Nevils is fading. He may rebound but right now he'll struggle to place. Nevills fades...Casser and Lee emerge...PSU will take it.

Bucks can reasonably expect 1-2 champs and end up with as many as 9 AA's. But they're not as likely to score bonus. And, honestly, just because they have 9 AA caliber starters doesn't mean all will place. It's just as likely they'll suffer a few upsets and end up with fewer guys on the podium.

If Bucks are to win the title, they'll need a spectacular showing out of their entire lineup. It would be more than Nate (who's struggling with the weight cut), Bo, Myles, Kollin and Kyle. They'll need Pletcher, McKenna, Hayes and Micah to be outstanding as well. McKenna and Hayes to me are big keys. McKenna will have to win some big matches against outstanding opponents. And Hayes has the skill to finish very high at 149. Can he channel his inner J. Jaggers and "shine when the lights are on"?



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Discussion Topic: 2018 NCAA Team Championship: tOSU or PSU?
Freddy Carr added to this discussion on January 27, 2018

My hot take:

I see PSU with 4/5 Champs and OSU with 2/3.

OSU will have 1/2 more AA.

PSU's big guns will score massive bonus, as per usual.

PSU wins. It won't be decided before the finals, but they'll close the deal that night and win pretty comfortably.



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Discussion Topic: 2018 NCAA Team Championship: tOSU or PSU?
Justin Hayes added to this discussion on January 27, 2018

It seems Pletcher doesn't get as much love as one would expect...

Last year. Success up a weight. Enough said.

This year. At weight, undefeated, highly ranked.

What am I missing?



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