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Discussion Topic: My NCAA thoughts (through Scarlet lenses)
Jason L. Jackson added to this discussion on March 7, 2018
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My thoughts on OSU v. PSU at the NCAA Tournament:
125 – Nathan Tomasello (OSU) v. No One (PSU)
I think Tomasello gets the 2 seed. Who gets the 3 seed is big. Not sure what is better, seeing Lee in the semis or in the finals. I think Suriano gets the 3 and NaTo gets by him and into the finals. I think Lee makes it through the other side. NaTo needs an early takedown in this one, because I think Lee takes top this time and makes it difficult. I’m taking NaTo with bookend championships.
NaTo – 4 advancement points, 16 placement points, 3 bonus points – 23 points
133 – Luke Pletcher (OSU) v. Corey Keener (PSU)
I think Pletcher gets the 4 seed and Keener is unseeded. I see Pletcher squeaking out 3 wins, but I see him losing in the semis to Gross. Pletcher battles back and places his seed.
Pletcher – 3.5 advancement points, 9 placement points, 0 bonus points – 12.5 points
I think Keener loses in the first round and picks up a major in the consis. He goes 1-2.
Keener - .5 advancement points, 0 placement points, 1 bonus point – 1.5 points
141 – Joey McKenna (OSU) v. Nick Lee (PSU)
I think McKenna ends up with the 4 seed and Lee with the 8. I think McKenna gets into the semis with at least 2 majors, and then squeaks one out over Meredith or Lee. However, I’m taking Yianni or Eirman in the finals.
McKenna – 4 advancement points, 12 placement points, 2 bonus points – 18 points
I think Lee gets 2 bonus wins and then loses to Meredith in the quarters. He bounces back with 2 more bonus wins, then loses his last 2 and places 6th.
Lee – 3 advancement points, 6 placement points, 5 bonus points – 14 points
Team score update: OSU – 53.5 v. PSU – 15.5
149 – Ke’Shawn Hayes (OSU) v. Zain Retherford (PSU)
Zain is clearly the 1 seed and Ke’Shawn is the 5. I think Ke’Shawn gets a major in the first round and possibly in the second, but I’ll be a little conservative. I think he gets by Heilmann into the semis, where he gets Zain. Ugh. Hayes gets 1 more win and takes 4th.
Hayes – 3.5 advancement points, 9 placement points, 2 bonus points – 14.5 points
Zain goes pin, pin, pin, major, decision.
Retherford – 4 advancement points, 16 placement points, 7 bonus points – 27 points
157 – Micah Jordan (OSU) v. Jason Nolf (PSU)
I think Nolf gets dinged to the 2 or 3 and Micah gets the 7. I think Kemerer ends up the 4/5. Micah gets bonus in the first and a decision in the second. In the quarters he would face either Nolf or Lavallee. If Nolf is dinged up, Micah has a shot. Nolf at 100% sends Micah to the consis. Micah picks up his bloodround win, wins one more and then loses his last 2 and places 6th.
Jordan – 3 advancement points, 6 placement points, 2 bonus points – 11 points
I’m assuming Nolf is close to 100%. He goes pin, pin, major, decision, decision.
Nolf – 4 advancement points, 16 placement points, 5 bonus points – 25 points
165 – Te’Shan Campbell (OSU) v. Vincenzo Joseph (PSU)
I think Campbell is the 13 seed and Joseph is the 2 seed. Campbell has wrestled the hardest schedule in the country, and it will pay off for the Bucks. I think he gets a major in the first round but loses in the second to someone from the B1G. He picks up a major or tech in the consis, 1 more win and then bows out in R16.
Campbell – 1.5 advancement points, 0 placement points, 2 bonus points – 3.5 points
Joseph hasn’t looked dynamic, but again, the B1G at 165 is ridiculous. I think he goes pin, major, decision, decision, loss. If Massa were on his side of the bracket I might have him losing earlier than that.
Joseph – 4 advancement points, 12 placement points, 3 bonus points – 19 points
Team Score update: OSU – 82.5 v. PSU – 86.5
174 – Bo Jordan (OSU) v. Mark Hall (PSU)
Seeding will be interesting here. Zahid is the best wrestler at this weight, but Hall is undefeated and the returning champ. What I hope…Zahid, Hall, Lewis, Kutler, Amine, Jordan. If that’s the seeding, I think Bo goes pin, major, decision to set up a semi meeting with Hall. I would hate to think that Hall gets him again…but I can’t pick Bo. I wish I could. Bo drops down, wins 2 more and ends his career with another 3rd place finish.
Jordan – 3.5 advancement points, 10 placement points, 3 bonus points – 16.5 points
I think Hall goes pin, pin, decision, decision, loss. Zahid gets his revenge for the headgear pull last year.
Hall - 4 advancement points, 12 placement points, 4 bonus points – 20 points
184 – Myles Martin (OSU) v. Bo Nickal (PSU)
1 v. 2. Martin goes tech, major, major, decision. Nickal goes pin, major, major, decision. Nickal has proven to be the better wrestler. Not by so much that a Martin win would shock me, but it would surprise me.
Martin – 4 advancement points, 12 placement points, 3.5 bonus points – 19.5 points
Nickal – 4 advancement points, 16 placement points, 4 bonus points – 24 points
197 – Kollin Moore (OSU) v. Shakur Rasheed (PSU)
Moore will be the 2 seed. Rasheed has a limited body of work, and I think he ends up at 7 or 8. I hope 7. Moore goes pin, major, decision (over Rasheed), decision (even through he’s pinned Haught twice), decision. Champ.
Moore – 4 advancement points, 16 placement points, 3 bonus points – 23 points
Rasheed gets a pin, decision, loss to put him in the bloodround. I think he gets upset there and doesn’t place.
Shakur – 2 advancement points, 0 placement points, 2 bonus points – 4 points
Team Score update: OSU – 139.5 v. PSU – 134.5
285 – Kyle Snyder (OSU) v. Nick Nevills (PSU)
Snyder will be the 1 seed. Nevills will be the 3 or 4. I hope 4. Snyder goes tech, tech, major, major, decision. THE Best in the World!!!!!
Snyder – 4 advancement points, 16 placement points, 5 bonus points – 25 points
Nevills will get a pin, decision, decision, loss, decision, loss and place 4th.
Nevills – 3.5 advancement points, 9 placement points, 2 bonus points – 14.5 points
Final team scores: OSU – 164.5 v. PSU – 149
I’m a Buckeye fan. I’ve seen Tom Ryan have his team ready to go in March every year. I have faith they will step up. My projections are a bit optimistic, but not unrealistic. I think I was fair to PSU. The Buckeyes will win the 2018 National Championship!
Go Bucks!!!!!
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Discussion Topic: My NCAA thoughts (through Scarlet lenses)
Rex Holman added to this discussion on March 7, 2018
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Excellent, I see Rasheed and Nolf as biq question marks. Both could be in the finals or not place depending how their weekend is going. Rasheed is not powerful, but quick; a cradle is fairly easy to stop if you know it is coming unless your opponent has the physical attributes of Ed Ruth. Rasheed is very good but really a 184 wrestler that could make 174 if asked to do so for the team. Nolf should be almost back to 100% but that is if everything goes right. It is wresting and the knee is going to get tweaked one way or the other. On top of that it is the NCAA tournament and there are a lot of sharks in the water that get excited if they smell blood. It will be a great weekend of wrestling and drama. He is going to see an excellent wrestler in the quarters. That is the litmus test for me whether he is able to win it or not. He simply outclasses a lot of the guys at the weight with one leg.
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Discussion Topic: My NCAA thoughts (through Scarlet lenses)
Bruce Andrews added to this discussion on March 7, 2018
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Quote from Jason L. Jackson's post:
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"125 – Nathan Tomasello (OSU) v. No One (PSU) Not sure what is better, seeing Lee in the semis or in the finals. "
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For some reason, I am nervous about Tomasello seeing an Iowa wrestler in the semifinal of the NCAA tournament.
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Discussion Topic: My NCAA thoughts (through Scarlet lenses)
Roe Fox added to this discussion on March 7, 2018
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“I would hate to think that Hall gets him again…but I can’t pick Bo. I wish I could.â€
Jason: this would not be so hard through true Scarlet Lenses!
I think you’re probably right. It just seems he has been through so much that getting him on that stage one last time, knowing this is it might just be enough additional adrenaline for a guy who is really close to being there anyway. Plus, isn’t he the one who put us over the top in 2015? Perhaps he does it again by taking out Hall.
I’m really interested in PSU Lee and Nolf. Both could win it or for various reasons (inexperience, injury) not place.
Excellent write-up and I really can’t quibble with anything Jason wrote.
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Discussion Topic: My NCAA thoughts (through Scarlet lenses)
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on March 7, 2018
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Quote from Bruce Andrews's post:
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"
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Quote from Jason L. Jackson's post:
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"125 – Nathan Tomasello (OSU) v. No One (PSU) Not sure what is better, seeing Lee in the semis or in the finals. "
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For some reason, I am nervous about Tomasello seeing an Iowa wrestler in the semifinal of the NCAA tournament."
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Yep. I was hoping he'd get Suriano. I think Suriano ended up with a great draw. And if he's hurt, Cruz will "cruise."
I think Nate and Lee are the two best wrestlers at 125.
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Discussion Topic: My NCAA thoughts (through Scarlet lenses)
Don Bork added to this discussion on March 7, 2018
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Had hoped Nate and Lee would be opposite brackets. They have split two matches this year and agree they are the best at the weight. Neither Cruz nor Suriano have met that level of competition.
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Discussion Topic: My NCAA thoughts (through Scarlet lenses)
Jared Ball added to this discussion on March 7, 2018
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I'll tell you..I'm really surprised that the committee took the angle they did with wrestlers medically forfeiting out last weekend. I mean a Kemerer/Nolf quarter, wow. A month ago that was the unquestionable final. All of the matches are tough at this point, and the PSU we saw this weekend will not be the same finely tuned team that shows up next weekend. I think there are a handful of keys to the Bucks hoisting the team trophy Saturday night.
#1. Our number 1's have to carry their weight
-There isn't a single guy on our team regardless of ranking that is a "lock" to take home the title...even Snyder. I expect Snyder to repeat and to bonus all the way to the final, but knocking off Coon again is not a forgone conclusion. Myles should chalk his way to the finals as long as he doesn't get "tripped" up by Parker in the quarters...nice pun there. We need NATO to gut out another match with Lee (quite a tall order), and most importantly Kollin has to be better than he has been all year. He took the title last weekend again, but has continued to be inconsistent. As he goes the team will go. We absolutely cannot win without him at least making the finals, and that is not a certainty. If he gets past Weigel in the quarters I think he looks more dominant as the tourney goes on.
#2. We need big points in unexpected areas.
-Bo.....not a six seed, but alas there he is. We need one last push from the big guy. Quite a task in front of him..beat an absolute beast of a guy in the quarters only to be thrown out to Mark Hall again, and then another match with Valencia. Not a high probability of making the finals here, but he absolutely cannot wrestle to his seed.
-TeSean scored zero team points last weekend....zero. Somewhat understandable considering his draw but we have yet to see much growth from him. Unless he has the weekend of his life I would say All-American status is unlikely. We need him to push into the round of twelve at bare minimum. Three wins would go a long way into supporting the big scorers.
#3. We need help from PSU
-If PSU even comes close to replicating their success last year our team effort won't be enough. We need an 0-2, barbecue effort out of Keener, a lackluster performance from Shakur, and either Nolf or Vincenzo to miss out on the finals. Of the two I'm more inclined to think that a less than 100% Nolf could potentially slip up. He didn't look like he had a ton on his feet this weekend. I'd love to see Kemerer knock him off in the quarters but he looked pretty bad, and has since the OSU dual.
Side note: I love Keshawn's draw, very possible that he makes the semis. Micah is in a tough spot. I think the only way he scores above seventh is if he makes the semis. Doable, but tough.
Go bucks
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Discussion Topic: My NCAA thoughts (through Scarlet lenses)
Justin Hayes added to this discussion on March 7, 2018
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Peculiarly, I'm most concerned about NaTo and Kyle.
Spencer just keeps getting better from the top with his Venom like, soul sucking ride.
And Coon's size and agility is pushing Kyle's threshold to the max, IMO.
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Discussion Topic: My NCAA thoughts (through Scarlet lenses)
Jason L. Jackson added to this discussion on March 7, 2018
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Lee is taking top next time they wrestle. NaTo needs a first period takedown to give him breathing room.
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Discussion Topic: My NCAA thoughts (through Scarlet lenses)
Brandon Sommers added to this discussion on March 7, 2018
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Quote from Jason L. Jackson's post:
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"Lee is taking top next time they wrestle. NaTo needs a first period takedown to give him breathing room."
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I've seen this posted on a few threads and forums. I don't understand how it would benefit Lee. He can choose down and get an almost automatic point....or he can choose top and hope to ride Nate for 2 minutes to lock in a riding time point. Either way it is a one point advantage...and one is a much more certain one point advantage than the other. What am I missing?
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Discussion Topic: My NCAA thoughts (through Scarlet lenses)
Michael Rodriguez added to this discussion on March 7, 2018
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Discussion Topic: My NCAA thoughts (through Scarlet lenses)
Freddy Carr added to this discussion on March 8, 2018
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Quote from Michael Rodriguez's post:
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"...maybe a turn?"
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Yep. And wearing NATO down for two minutes.
Also, I think the RT is just as likely for Lee as an escape. He's that good.
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Discussion Topic: My NCAA thoughts (through Scarlet lenses)
Brandon Sommers added to this discussion on March 8, 2018
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I almost had an aneurism from screaming at the tv the last time Nate got ridden by Lee for the entire period. My wife will be cashing in on my life insurance policy if it happens again while I'm actually in the arena. Lol. This reminds me a lot of Retherford vs Stieber. I hope it turns out the same.
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Discussion Topic: My NCAA thoughts (through Scarlet lenses)
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on March 8, 2018
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Bo Jordan doesn't look like a finalist--but he's Bo Jordan. We know what he can do. I also feel if his draw goes to form he's in good position to win his cons quarters match should he lose to Daniel Lewis in the quarters. Bo may have to work harder to AA this year than he has done in the past but his path is clear if he's simply at his Big Ten level. The emergence of McKenna, however, allows for less dependency on BoJo. McKenna got what I feel is a good draw given the depth of this weight. He's wrestling lights out. He could be our "March surprise."
Kyle Snyder let slip in a post-Big Ten's interview that Nate still has a knee issue dating back to his preseason injury default to Daton Fix. He is not 100%. Same for Te-Shan Campbell. I think Campbell is frustrated but I also feel he has a good shot to win his first match and gain a little momentum.
Path to victory for the Bucks is no secret--they need to avoid unexpected slip-ups. This team was remarkably consistent in tourney action at Big Tens and Vegas so I feel good in this regard. Then--as mentioned previously--seeds need to hold. Kyle, Kollin and Myles in the finals and then at least one more finalist out of Micah, Nate and McKenna. And everyone needs to score, score, score. An unhealthy Nolf would help a lot. Maybe Bo Nickal gets the flu? A few pins out of BoJo, a few wins out of Te'Shan, Pletcher continuing to eke out his victories. All of which leaves us with Ke-Shawn Hayes. Simply put, he needs to get to the semis and then win a few cons. Easy, right?
As fate would have it, I have an incredibly busy work week at the same time as the tourney due to St Pat's Day--the patron saint of corned beef. On Saturday night, I will sell my last corned beef sandwich around 6 and pick a spot to view the finals. Anyone without a ticket is welcome to watch with me. Just let me know and we'll make a plan.
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Discussion Topic: My NCAA thoughts (through Scarlet lenses)
Michael Rodriguez added to this discussion on March 8, 2018
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I think Ohio State got pretty good draws. Moore getting the one seed, Kasper being the other “heavy hitter†on Snyder’s side of the bracket, McKenna being a four, Pletcher being a three...they all are set up as good as they could be. I like Hayes’ spot, Micah too. I don’t think they’re getting to the finals, but they weren’t expected to. They were expected to All American and they’re in a solid spot to make good on that potential. If you’re a Tomesello fan, maybe you wanted him away from Lee? Other than that, the seeds went as pro-OSU as they could.
What’s staggering is how razor thin the margin of error is. Everyone has to do what they “should†for the Buckeyes to bring home a title. We’re talking NINE All Americans...just to be in the hunt
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