|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Discussion Topic: Ohio state expectations at NCAAS
Nick Lecklider added to this discussion on February 9, 2022
|
We are just about a month away now from the big show. Here is how I view this team at this point in the season. I believe we have 4 close to locks to be an all American. (Sasso, Kharchla, smith, Romero) but I think with the right draw one more will emerge between heinselman, Hoffman, and tate. Heinselman has had some good victories and can beat anyone outside maybe the top 5. The number 6-15 guys are all really close and he can Aa with the right matchups and draws. Hoffman has been bouncing around weight classes for the last couple years. 184,197, and heavy. I think he has finally landed where he needs to be and getting comfortable with this weight class. He really has impressed me these last couple weeks and seems to really turn it on at the end of matches. If you told me he was going to have a one point match with Warner and an overtime match with dean at beginning of season I wouldn’t have believed it. Heavyweight is just so deep that there are 6 studs but 7-16 are all gone be fighting for the last two spots to AA. Again it’s going to take the perfect draw or a top guy injury defaults etc. So between these three I just think one will emerge to the stand. If I had to choose one probably Malik to sneak in.
133 isn’t qualifying
157. Hubbard gets in and wins maybe a match or two
141. Demilio got the best draw possible last year. I say probably gets one win this year possibly two also
Best chance to win a title.
Sasso 5 percent. Yianni is just better in every position. Wins 19/20 probably times
Kharchla 20 percent. 5-6 guys can win this weight. The quarters and semis are gonna be unreal here.
Team standings. Ohio state 5th. Not beating big three but in group of next four teams. 5 aa. 9 point scorers
|
|
|
|
|
Discussion Topic: Ohio state expectations at NCAAS
Jared Ball added to this discussion on February 13, 2022
|
During a conversation on Floradio live a question was asked regarding if the Big Ten would finish 1-4, or maybe even 1-5. CPs answer was no due to someone like Okie State or ASU putting together better runs to an tOSU or Nebraska. This comes down to finalists and draws. Without Mr Fast-twitch I don’t see Oklahoma State being in that top five, especially after the battle of the ballpark dual. They don’t have the depth or big guns outside of Fix. ASU is interesting because they have lots of depth with some fringe finalize potential. If Ohio State can get multiple guys in the finals then they could push for 4th. There are some real questions though, what is going on with Romero? He’s been out multiple weeks. If he doesn’t wrestle Sunday we have to assume he’s suffered some kind of injury that may risk post season advancement. If he’s full go he has a shot to push far into the bracket. Asking Kharchla to string together multiple Marinelli like wins is a tall order. It’s what has to be done, but he’s probably looking at a Travis Witlake type guy in the quarters, followed by a rematch with Iowa or Standford in the semis. That’s just to get to the finals. If he can manage that the Bucks have a shot. I think D’Emilio is looking at a wildcard with a repeat performance from last year. Smith is probably not going to crack the top six. Hoffman is too inconsistent to be a low AA. How do you beat the number 6 guy in the country and then turn around and lose to an unranked guy? Tate is probably round of 12, low AA with the right draw again. This is a better team than last year, but top five will take some luck if the draw and great wrestling.
|
|
|
|
|
Discussion Topic: Ohio state expectations at NCAAS
Jeff Fortman added to this discussion on February 14, 2022
|
Carson i believe has an absolute shot at winning. His match this previous week was not real impressive but even a loss to the kod from Stanford was close, but winnable. I believe though he gets by stanford rasier than beating iowa again.
|
|
|
|
|
Discussion Topic: Ohio state expectations at NCAAS
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on February 15, 2022
|
The Big Ten is incredibly tough. Even average starters are now more skilled than ever before. Training methods have improved. Make one mistake and it can cost you a match. Examples--Rocky Jordan and Gavin Hoffman against Minny. The only really bad teams are Indiana and Maryland. Otherwise, you're in a dog fight every meet.
|
|
|
|
|
Discussion Topic: Ohio state expectations at NCAAS
Jim Kessen added to this discussion on February 15, 2022
|
Bucks should move up a spot now that A.J. Ferrari is out for year.
|
|
|
|
|
Discussion Topic: Ohio state expectations at NCAAS
Brian Mathews added to this discussion on February 15, 2022
|
5th place would be an outstanding result.
Even with 2 finalists and 5 AA's, which is saying something, this group would probably max out around ~65 team points. That would've been good for 7th last year (and isn't even a likely result in the first place).
|
|
|
|
|
Discussion Topic: Ohio state expectations at NCAAS
Nick Lecklider added to this discussion on February 15, 2022
|
I think you are a little off on the points. I expect Ohio state to get around the 75-80 mark. Flo has Malik 8, smith 7, Romero 5, Carson 4, sasso 2 which gives us 53 points which is a fair assessment. I see possibly more upside in those placements. I think Carson smith and romero can all place higher. Let’s remember that is placement points alone. Bonus points will also add to that total along with tate, D’Emilio and hubbards points which we will get more from. So between those three and bonus added to the placement points that flo has us at 75-80 could definitely happen.
|
|
|
|
|
Discussion Topic: Ohio state expectations at NCAAS
Brian Mathews added to this discussion on February 15, 2022
|
|
Quote from Nick Lecklider's post:
|
|
"I think you are a little off on the points. I expect Ohio state to get around the 75-80 mark. Flo has Malik 8, smith 7, Romero 5, Carson 4, sasso 2 which gives us 53 points which is a fair assessment. I see possibly more upside in those placements. I think Carson smith and romero can all place higher. Let’s remember that is placement points alone. Bonus points will also add to that total along with tate, D’Emilio and hubbards points which we will get more from. So between those three and bonus added to the placement points that flo has us at 75-80 could definitely happen."
|
As much as I would love that, 75 to 80 is *highly* unlikely. Guys that don't AA barely count at the NCAA tournament. Below is what I was thinking, and I would already consider this a rosy picture:
Malik taking 8th, scoring 5.5 pts
D'Emilio 2 consi wins, 1 pt
Sasso taking 2nd, 3 bonus, 19 pts
Hubbard 1 consi win, 0.5 pts
Kharchla taking 2nd, 1.5 bonus, 17.5 pts
Smith taking 6th, 1 bonus, 10 pts
Romero taking 6th, 1 bonus, 10 pts
Hoffman 2 consi wins, 1 pt
Orndorff 3 consi wins, 1.5 pts
Total = 66 pts
If you offered that to the coaching staff today I think they'd take it and run. There's A LOT more room to the downside there.
|
|
|
|
|
Discussion Topic: Ohio state expectations at NCAAS
Nick Lecklider added to this discussion on February 15, 2022
|
80 is probably too high but I could see 70-75 range easily. I like Romero to beat that 6 place finish. Tate and Demilio should be top 16 seeds and get a championship round win. And see about 4 points more from bonus. The draws are critical ,and placements at big tens are crucial. There are medical forfeits that can get you two bonus points that happens quite a bit also. You just never know. Round one all of our studs can bonus. Ethan smith was close to the finals last year, anything could happen. Upsets, injuries, and a guy getting hot at the right time. Ohio state is not getting 1-3 but anywhere from 4-6 is the range I see them at unless a big injury. Ferrari being done knocked Oklahoma state below this group imo.
|
|
|
|
|
Discussion Topic: Ohio state expectations at NCAAS
Mark Niemann added to this discussion on February 15, 2022
|
Expectations?
10 National Champions.
There - I said it.
Make it so, tNDG.
|
|
|
|
|
Discussion Topic: Ohio state expectations at NCAAS
Brian Mathews added to this discussion on February 16, 2022
|
|
Quote from Nick Lecklider's post:
|
|
"80 is probably too high but I could see 70-75 range easily. I like Romero to beat that 6 place finish. Tate and Demilio should be top 16 seeds and get a championship round win. And see about 4 points more from bonus. The draws are critical ,and placements at big tens are crucial. There are medical forfeits that can get you two bonus points that happens quite a bit also. You just never know. Round one all of our studs can bonus. Ethan smith was close to the finals last year, anything could happen. Upsets, injuries, and a guy getting hot at the right time. Ohio state is not getting 1-3 but anywhere from 4-6 is the range I see them at unless a big injury. Ferrari being done knocked Oklahoma state below this group imo."
|
Look, I hope all of that happens, but I'm already making Malik an AA and Kharchla a finalist. Those aren't exactly high probability scenarios. Not to mention Romero, whose status is uncertain.
|
|
|
|
|
Discussion Topic: Ohio state expectations at NCAAS
Nick Lecklider added to this discussion on February 16, 2022
|
Looks like Decatur is gonna be the guy at 133. No other reason to enter a last chance open at 133. I thought this experiment was done but if he has the energy to go he could steal an allocation. Beat demelio at 141 in an overtime match and nearly beat top ten clarke from North Carolina at end of regulation. At 133 he just doesn’t seem to have the same burst or energy. He has a better chance than koontz I guess. Hopefully the big has quite a few allocation spots here.
|
|
|
|
|
Discussion Topic: Ohio state expectations at NCAAS
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on February 17, 2022
|
I'm a huge Sasso fan but he's not dominating this season. I'm particularly vexed by his top work. He's not riding well at all. We all know he can be a finalist but I wouldn't write it down in pen. Maybe he just needs a loss to get it out of his system?
|
|
|
|
|
Discussion Topic: Ohio state expectations at NCAAS
Nick Lecklider added to this discussion on February 17, 2022
|
He is not the same sasso as last year. I think it is a big weight cut. Tournament sasso should be a bit more energized. Like jaggers senior postseason run. Just don’t think he can beat Yianni either way. But still expect him in the finals.
|
|
|
|
|
Discussion Topic: Ohio state expectations at NCAAS
Bill Splete added to this discussion on February 17, 2022
|
Hank, Love Sasso, but there is something off about his offense as well. I know he has great defense to offense but in his last few matches, he seemed drained and heavy on his feet. I hope it's just the grind and he is ok for a run. I want him to do well and root for him, he is a very likable kid, they all seem like good dudes, from Romero to silent K(Kharchla). Didn't know the k was silent until the flo interview...
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
