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Discussion Topic: Va. Tech v. TOSU
Roe Fox added to this discussion on November 2, 2022
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Thought I would start a thread as it looks to be a great match (waiting for the famous JJ breakdown) and I, unfortunately, cannot use my two tickets. Pretty good seats on the floor.
First to PM with a mobile number can have them.
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Discussion Topic: Va. Tech v. TOSU
Rob Wagner added to this discussion on November 2, 2022
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Looking forward to 157 with 2 St. Eds alum Andonian & Gallagher!
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Discussion Topic: Va. Tech v. TOSU
Jason L. Jackson added to this discussion on November 2, 2022
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Ask and you shall receive.
VT v. OSU – 11/11 (Rankings are per InterMat unless noted)
125 – Malik Heinselman (#11) v. Eddie Ventresca (#28)
I like the senior Heinselman over the RS frosh Ventresca here. I think Malik wins 5-3 and starts the Buckeye dual schedule off right. Of note, wrestlestat has Malik ranked #10 and Ventresca #31, but predicts a victory for VT.
3-0 OSU
133 – Jesse Mendez (NR) v. Sam Latona (#13)
Latona is a 2021 All American at 125 and lost in the bloodround last year as the 24 seed. This is his first year up at 133. I think Mendez can compete on his feet, but I worry that the true frosh will get stuck on bottom. I am calling a decision for Latona here, but absolutely won’t be shocked if Mendez pulls out a W.
3-3 Tie
141 – Jordan Decatur/Dylan D’Emilio (#7) v. Tom Crook/Collin Gerardi (#24)
So, both ranked wrestlers and projected starters lost their wrestle-offs. We have four different potential matchups here. However, I think OSU sneaks out a decision in all 4. Decatur has beaten D’Emilio twice now and I think he is better on his feet, but slightly worse on the mat. Crook, the true frosh who was unbeaten in high school, beat Gerardi in his wrestle off. D’Emilio beat Gerardi last year. No matter which matchup we get, I am taking OSU by decision.
6-3 OSU
149 – Sammy Sasso (#3) v. Caleb Henson (NR)
Maybe the premiere matchup of the dual, if Henson takes the mat for VT. We all know Sammy is a stud, but Henson, the true frosh, is no slouch. #6 pound for pound wrestler in the 2022 class, Henson beat an NCAA qualifier last year at the Southeast Open. I think he gives Sammy all he can handle, but the mat prowess and experience pay off and Sammy gets a 6-3 decision with riding time.
9-3 OSU
157 – Paddy Gallagher (#23) v. Bryce Andonian (#6)
Former Eagles square off here in a big matchup. Andonian is moving up a weight class, so maybe he won’t be completely adjusted, but he is a big move waiting to happen. Paddy will have to maintain good position and avoid getting put on his back. This could be anywhere from a Paddy win to a Bryce pin. I’m calling it 3 for VT, but this could swing the dual.
9-6 OSU
165 – Carson Kharchla (#6) v. Connor Brady/Drew Nicholson (#30)
Brady knocked off Nicholson in the wrestle-off, so I expect to see him the mat against Kharchla. I think Carson wins a controlled decision, and has a shot to push for bonus late, but doesn’t get there. Familiarity could keep this closer than expected as well.
12-6 OSU
174 – Ethan Smith (#6) v. Mekhi Lewis (#2)
Lewis beat Smith 6-3 last year, and, if he’s healthy, I would expect a similar result. Great matchup, but I just don’t think Smith has enough to knock off the 2 time finalist.
12-9 OSU
184 – Kaleb Romero (#4) v. Hunter Bolen (#11)
Another huge matchup. Bolen was highly ranked and flamed out earlier than expected at the NCAA tourney. Bolen knocked off Rocky Jordan in the dual last year, so there’s no prior matchup of these two. I think Kaleb hits a blast double early, keeps good defense and scores on a counter late to win 5-3.
15-9 OSU
197 – Gavin Hoffman v. Andy Smith (NR)
Hoffman is probably the largest favorite on the Buckeye roster, which is something that was unimaginable to think last year at this time. If Hoffman has permanently made the jump he showed at the NCAA tourney, he could push for bonus here.
18-9 OSU
285 – Tate Orndorff (#7) v. Hunter Catka (#19)
Tate should have the advantage here and I expect him to wrap up the dual with a win. I expect one arm drag and then riding time to give Tate a comfortable decision.
21-9 OSU
Overall
I think OSU has a slight advantage at most weights, but, a sluggish performance and this could easily be a VT win. I called OSU victories at 125, 141, 149, 165, 184 and heavy, and a flipped result would not surprise me at any of those weights. I called for a VT win at 133 and I wouldn’t be shocked if that one went OSU’s way.
The only results I am fairly confident in are VT at 157 and 174, and OSU at 197. Other than that there are toss ups. I think OSU gets the best of them, but this will be a great dual.
Hopefully I can make it. We were originally supposed to be out of town, but my daughter’s volleyball team is making a run and, hopefully, I will already be in Columbus to watch them at the State tourney!
Go Saints and Go Bucks!!!
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Discussion Topic: Va. Tech v. TOSU
Nick Lecklider added to this discussion on November 2, 2022
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I think Mendes wins a comfortable decesion over Latona. Mendes has been beating…. In freestyle that is, all Americans for a couple years now and nearly a NCAA champ in Seth gross. Heinselman has beat Latona. If Mendes can’t beat a guy like Latona it may be worth red shirting bc he is very unlikely to all American.
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Discussion Topic: Va. Tech v. TOSU
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on November 2, 2022
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Quote from Nick Lecklider's post:
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"I think Mendes wins a comfortable decesion over Latona. Mendes has been beating…. In freestyle that is, all Americans for a couple years now and nearly a NCAA champ in Seth gross. Heinselman has beat Latona. If Mendes can’t beat a guy like Latona it may be worth red shirting bc he is very unlikely to all American."
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Nick: You may recall a pretty tough frosh named Nate Tomasello losing a few as a frosh before he cleaned up his game and won an NCAA title. Same for Myles Martin. I absolutely think Mendes can win this bout but there's likely to be a period of adjustment for him to college folk.
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Discussion Topic: Va. Tech v. TOSU
Roe Fox added to this discussion on November 2, 2022
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Ben gets the tickets.
Columbia anyone?
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Discussion Topic: Va. Tech v. TOSU
Nick Lecklider added to this discussion on November 2, 2022
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Hank: tomasello redshirted and only lost 8 matches in 5 full years. Gilman, Clark, lee, dance and waters maybe? Wrstlestat site is down so I am going off of memory. Six of his eight loses we’re probably Iowa studs. Everyone was a high all American. Latona I don’t think is a top ten kid really to be honest and not a top level guy. And if he loses to him save the redshirt. Myles martin didn’t get a redshirt pulled until he was proven he could beat those kind of guys and the team was in a national title race. We will not be close this year to contending.
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Quote from Hank Kornblut's post:
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"
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Quote from Nick Lecklider's post:
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"I think Mendes wins a comfortable decesion over Latona. Mendes has been beating…. In freestyle that is, all Americans for a couple years now and nearly a NCAA champ in Seth gross. Heinselman has beat Latona. If Mendes can’t beat a guy like Latona it may be worth red shirting bc he is very unlikely to all American."
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Nick: You may recall a pretty tough frosh named Nate Tomasello losing a few as a frosh before he cleaned up his game and won an NCAA title. Same for Myles Martin. I absolutely think Mendes can win this bout but there's likely to be a period of adjustment for him to college folk."
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Discussion Topic: Va. Tech v. TOSU
Drew Taylor added to this discussion on November 2, 2022
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There’s next to no chance Tom Ryan redshirts Mendez and Bouzakis and rolls out Koontz again.
Best lineup goes. Stop worrying about five years from now.
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Discussion Topic: Va. Tech v. TOSU
Nick Lecklider added to this discussion on November 2, 2022
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Even the great Cael Sanderson used a redshirt. He wouldn’t have been the great undefeated as he lost in redshirt year. I know Tom Ryan will not redshirt as he said and history shows. I think however Mendes is ready and will win that match. I see him as a mid level all american this year. With the new rules you can see where your freshman stand without pulling the redshirt. If he isn’t beating top 12-10 guys then why pull him? To get two or three points at national tourney? If you are worried about beating penn state and Michigan and Iowa In duals you can literally still wrestle Mendes and bouzakis without using a redshirt. So duals wins shouldn’t even be in the thought process. We are beating every other team in the big ten with koontz in the lineup. Let Gonzales go 133. Ohio state can compete in five years for a national title. They can not this year unless two penn state contenders have season ending injuries.
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Discussion Topic: Va. Tech v. TOSU
John Joyce added to this discussion on November 5, 2022
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I think you are a little too low on Latona. Dude was cutting a ton of weight for the team to be 125. With Korbin Myers gone, he’s back at a more natural weight. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t AA this year.
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Discussion Topic: Va. Tech v. TOSU
Jason L. Jackson added to this discussion on November 5, 2022
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True frosh Crook knocks of Kazimir. D'Emilio med forfeits. Decatur takes 3rd at MSU Open. I might favor VT at 141, but with Mendez knocking off Byrd, I swing that to OSU.
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Discussion Topic: Va. Tech v. TOSU
Nick Lecklider added to this discussion on November 5, 2022
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His redshirt can officially be pulled. Mid level all American is expected at the least now. Byrd is a stud
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Discussion Topic: Va. Tech v. TOSU
Jason L. Jackson added to this discussion on November 8, 2022
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Updated thoughts after the weekend:
125 – Malik won the MSU Open and Ventresca won the Southeast Open. Malik knocked off Prata, probably the best opponent for each in either field. Ventresca beat a teammate in the finals, and as we have seen, those results can be misleading. I still favor Malik here.
3-0 OSU
133 – Jesse Mendez baby! Knocking off Byrd is an impressive early season win. Getting out from bottom was my concern, and he did it and then secured the winning takedown. Pumped to watch him Friday night. Latona took a surprising loss to Phillips of Franklin & Marshall in his first match at the Southeast Open and then won 3 in a row to make the 5th place match, which wasn’t contested. I now favor Mendez here.
6-0 OSU
141 – The opposite of 141 as the Ohio State wrestlers both took disappointing losses, specifically to tsun wrestlers, at the MSU Open. Crook, the true frosh from VT, knocked off Kazimir and won the Southeast Open. I swing this one to favoring VT.
6-3 OSU
149 – Sammy looked great, winning the MSU Open with ease. Pinning Lovett and teching Davenport are very good results. Henson looked very good as well, knocking off Hillegas, who beat Verkleen. I still favor Sammy in this one.
9-3 OSU
157 – A mix from Paddy. The tech of Munson in the semis was impressive. Munson is a ranked guy. The loss to Trumbley is bad, but a stall call sent it to OT. He could have easily won that one. Andonian didn’t wrestle. I favor Andonian and just hope that we don’t see any big moves that land Gallagher on his back.
9-6 OSU
165 – Kharchla didn’t wrestle at MSU. Brady and Nicholson, both VT 165 wrestlers, lost to Ogunsaya, a top 10 foe. I favor Carson here, and, if he has the energy, I could see him pushing for bonus in the 3rd.
12-6 OSU
174 – Smith was Smith at the MSU Open, registering a nice win over Ruth in the semis. Lewis had 2 techs and then MFF. I assume that was precautionary. I still favor Lewis by 2-3 points.
12-9 OSU
184 – Romero was aggressive in winning the MSU Open, including a nice win over Finesilver. Bolen didn’t wrestle. I favor Romero here.
15-9 OSU
197 – Hoffman had a decent win over a ranked foe in the semis, and then got stuck in the finals. Didn’t see it so I don’t know what happened. Smith won the Southeast Open with no ranked wins, but Shaw from NC did finish 3rd. I still favor Hoffman.
18-9 OSU
285 – No Hoffman at MSU. Catka won the Southeast Open, knocking off #20 Wolfgram. I still favor Tate in this one.
21-9 OSU
Overall, I switched 133 and 141, but I still see this the same, as a match with about 8 toss ups. Most favor OSU, but a lackluster performance could lead to a loss for sure. Excited that I’ll be able to make the trip to watch the wrestling team Friday night and then the football team Saturday. Go Bucks!!!
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Discussion Topic: Va. Tech v. TOSU
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on November 8, 2022
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If DD tweaked his knee, he might not wrestle.
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Discussion Topic: Va. Tech v. TOSU
Jason L. Jackson added to this discussion on November 8, 2022
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Quote from Hank Kornblut's post:
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"If DD tweaked his knee, he might not wrestle."
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I agree, and I think you see Decatur. I would put the probabilities as follows:
Crook decision - 52%
Decatur decision - 47%
Bonus by either - less than 1% for each
The other option is Bouzakis or Mendez at 133 and the other at 141. I would favor OSU at both weights in that scenario.
The final option is Koontz bumps up from 133. That would bring VT bonus into play.
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