Copyright 2000, Reproduction of this material for profit without written consent is
prohibited.
The very awkward and controversial five district structure of last year has been replaced by a more conventional four district setup. As is discussed later in this report, that has not eliminated criticism since the district allocation of State qualifiers has an uneven quality that many find distressing. It is certainly a defensible allocation, but the area that would seem to most benefit by this year's process is also the one that over the past few years has been least strong. One can hope for the day when the mechanical aspects of the State tourney are so little discussed that they are essentially invisible.
The past two years have been a special time for Ohio wrestling fans as we were treated to a marvelous group of competitors. However, in 2000 parity has been the operative word as most weight classes have five or six potential winners; not one or two superstars. Last year 9 of my 14 choices won State titles while two others lost in the finals. Over the last three years just over 70 percent of my choices have been champions, but this is likely to be a difficult target with close competitive weight classes being the norm this year.
Projected Champion: Ryan Lang (St. Edward) Top Contenders 2 Paglia (Strongsville) 14 Andaverde (Toledo Central Catholic) 3 Cundall (Maple Hts.) 15 S. Weaver (Waite) 4 Buzek (Green) 16 Depoy (Greenville) 5 Vickers (Massillon Perry) 17 Potridge (Fremont Ross) 6 Loebker (Anderson) 18 Luce (Sidney) 7 Zychowicz (Perrysburg) 19 Camburn (Stow) 8 Ondecko (Upper Arlington) 20 Downing (Darby) 9 Bivins (Cleveland Hts.) 21 Watson (Fairmont) 10 Candy (Moeller) 22 Lakia (Riverside) 11 Gilsdorf (Maumee) 23 Ocasio (Fairfield) 12 Wade (Berea) 24 Mantini (Willoughby South) 13 Paz (Eastlake North) 25 Osterbrock (St. Xavier)
I've gotten very spoiled during the past five years at this weight class as we've had a succession of relatively straightforward choices emerge each year. In the more distant past, this had been one of the most difficult weight classes to forecast, because it's composition is heavily weighted toward younger wrestlers without much varsity history. However, recently we've been treated to easily recognizable standouts like Smith, McBurney, Lenhard and Ott, but the new millennium provides no such surety. There is no clear-cut choice this year -- or even two or three wrestlers that have separated themselves from the rest of the field. In fact, there are legitimate contenders at each of the four district sites creating what should be a very hard fought competition from the very first round.
My choice is Ryan Lang, the outstanding freshman from St. Edward. He is undefeated against Ohio competition (his only two losses were at the Beast of the East in Delaware), and won both the Ironman and Medina against very good competition. He holds decisions over Cundall, Paz and Buzek, and finished ahead of Paglia at the Ironman. His strong youth experience make him much more of a veteran than the average freshman, and he'll need all that poise to withstand the many threats he'll face.
Those challenges will begin at the district level at Mentor. Cundall is a tough, cagey senior who will get better as the weight allowance gets larger. It's a tough cut, but it's his only varsity option on a loaded Maple Hts. squad. If he can make it deep into a tournament (especially beyond that dangerous first day), he'll be tough for the young freshmen and sophomores to handle. Bivins, another senior, and Paz will also be in the hunt for a State berth. Bivins won at Solon, while Paz has had an up-and-down season. He was fourth at the Ironman, losing close bouts to Lang (14-10) and Paglia (3-2), and was second at Brecksville losing again to Paglia (3-0). However, he was fourth at North Canton losing handily to Division III choice Scott and getting slaughtered by Bugara 12-0. He could be the one to pull a big upset.
Paglia heads a very tough Perry District. He took the title at Brecksville and could easily have been a finalist at the Ironman. Buzek is a solid journeyman, while Wade was a major surprise at the Top Gun with a runner-up finish. The big mystery is Vickers. He, like Cundall and Bivins, is a senior who last year finished sixth at this weight while winning three State bouts. However, it's been a very tough cut to 103 pounds and he has had few appearances; losing twice at the Ironman and once at the Top Gun. He is just one more element of uncertainty in a very uncertain weight class.
I don't believe that the Fairfield qualifiers will be able to compete successfully against the best from the northern part of the state. Candy won the highly regarded SWOCA over Loebker with a late escape and takedown in the third period to force overtime, and then yet another takedown. However, Loebker has looked better as of late, while Candy was only fourth at the CIT. DePoy might actually turn out to be the best of this group, but I think low places are the best any of the qualifiers can hope for at the State level.
I think basically the same conclusion also holds for the Darby qualifiers, although four of them have past State experience. Actually my top choice is Zychowicz who didn't qualify last year, but won at Perrysburg (over State qualifier Gilsdorf), and was second at Wadsworth and Hudson. State qualifier Ondecko is also dangerous and could severely challenge any of my top half-dozen choices. State qualifiers Andaverde and Weaver may be a half-step behind the aforementioned trio, but remember five qualify out of this district. Potridge (down from 112 pounds), Downing, Buhacevich (Grove City) and Brown (Scioto) are other possibilities.
Projected Champion: Kyle Ott (Wayne) Top Contenders 2 Moos (St. Edward) 14 Rose (Perrysburg) 3 Leugers (Fairfield) 15 Passafiume (Strongsville) 4 Pollock (Mentor) 16 Simmons (Westerville North) 5 Costello (Maple Hts.) 17 Willen (Lakota West) 6 Dew (Stow) 18 Eiklor (Mansfield Madison) 7 Theodore (Boardman) 19 Shafer (Massillon Perry) 8 J. Weaver (Waite) 20 Bradley (Sylvania Southview) 9 Jaynes (West Carrollton) 21 Puckett (Beavercreek) 10 Jackson (Cleveland Hts.) 22 Gease (Darby) 11 Phillips (Howland) 23 Scholl (Oak Hills) 12 Luther (Glen Este) 24 Sikora (Glen Oak) 13 Enright (Westland) 25 McCoy (Elder)
Sometime in late 2099, someone very like me will look back over the preceding century and begin choosing the top 20 Ohio school wrestlers of the 21st Century. Rather than the 60 or so years I had to contemplate, he (or possibly she) will have a full 100 years of potential candidates. My guess is that perhaps two athletes competing this March will factor into that analysis and be judged as the first great stars of the century. One of these will be Kyle Ott, the outstanding junior lightweight from Huber Hts. Wayne, who has already won one State title and seems destined to capture three. Ott has lost only one high school bout despite facing excellent competition (e.g., a two time Reno champ), and is easily the dominant figure at this weight class. To me, Ott always seems about a weight class or two bigger than his opponent with a corresponding advantage in strength and speed. He doesn't just win his bouts, but dominates, even against outstanding opponents. His only high school loss was to DeAngelo Penn in the State quarterfinals his freshman year -- a loss he avenged in the third place bout that year. It may well end up being the only blemish on his high school record.
Incidentally, Ott's victory last year set off a cascade of Southwest District champs. In all, that district took five individual titles in Division I -- the most in history -- and had, in addition, three runner-up finishes. Often viewed as a relatively weak area up until the '80s, it has now become a very productive area both in terms of teams and individuals.
The Mentor District will send a formidable trio to Columbus at this weight class. Moos was fourth last year, losing in the semifinals to Ott 4-1 in a bout that wasn't that close. His only losses have been to out-of-state competition and he has finalist potential (as long as he is away from Ott). Pollock won at Brecksville defeating both Dew and Costello, and looked very aggressive in the process. In fact, I was impressed with several of the Mentor wrestlers at that event, as they looked well-conditioned and focused. State qualifiers Costello and Jackson also return at this class and they are both excellent. All four members of this quartet have solid State placement chances, but only three will qualify. Last year, Costello (essentially a Jayvee back-up) made the lineup because of injury issues and proceeded to go wild. He was a district finalist and won two State bouts, failing to place by three points. He has lost to Pollack 4-3, Moos 9-7 and Ott 12-4. Jackson, the Solon champ, lost early at Brecksville to Dew (8-7) and fell to seventh place. He may be most vulnerable here. The good thing is that they should all be sectional champs making for good pairings.
While Ott dominates at Fairfield, there is some solid strength behind him. State qualifier Leugers has been very strong this year winning the Kenston and SWOCA and was, at last check, undefeated. He won two State bouts last year, and should do better this time. Jaynes qualified for State action as a district finalist last year at this weight class and the sophomore is even better this season. However, he will have trouble matching up with Ott (who doesn't?) and Leugers. State qualifier Luther and Willen have the best shots at the last two places.
It will be a very close competition for the three State berths at Perry. Former State qualifiers Dew, Phillips and Theodore are all tough, but a healthy Passafiume could be a surprise qualifier. Dew is a great wrestler to watch, working every second to score points regardless of risk. A lot of his bouts are of the 13-12 variety (see his semifinal score at Brecksville) and he is just plain fun to watch. Phillips was one win from placement in Division II last year, while Theodore missed a return trip to Columbus last year, losing 6-4 to Costello and 8-7 to Penn. They all have low placement possibilities.
The Darby District may not be as strong as the other three. State qualifier Weaver returns as the Perrysburg champ and GMVWA runner-up. Rose was a district champ last year, but lost both his State bouts, one to Leugers 5-0. Weaver handled him at Perrysburg and he was also second at Hudson. A sophomore to watch is Enright, who looked exceptional with a third place finish at Medina and some big wins in Columbus. By March he could be the best this district has to offer. Eiklor is also good, but just had his knee "scoped" a week ago. It'll be race to see if he'll be ready.
Projected Champion: Mason Lenhard (St. Edward) Top Contenders 2 Jo. Pflug (Maple Hts.) 15 Hill (Moeller) 3 DiSalvo (Carroll) 16 Pietropinto (Mayfield) 4 Stevens (Mansfield Madison) 17 N. Lakia (Riverside) 5 Eibel (Massillon Perry) 18 Lemaster (Upper Arlington) 6 Wolery (Lakota West) 19 Wilkens (Fairfield) 7 Hewitt (Medina) 20 Graham (Marion Franklin) 8 Januszewski (Strongsville) 21 Bellman (Wapakoneta) 9 Baysinger (Amelia) 22 Reynolds (Clay) 10 Thompson (Kenmore) 23 Garcia (Colerain) 11 Glavan (Mentor) 24 Mitchell (Start) 12 Hansen (Pickerington) 25 Gillen (Harrison) 13 Pniewski (Cloverleaf) 26 Mason (Oak Hills) 14 Josefowicz (Holland Springfield) 27 Daisy (Howland)
As regular readers of this document know, I am even more a fan of baseball than wrestling and, as you might expect, have done extensive analysis on all facets of the grand old game. One of my favorite pitchers is the now almost-forgotten star Kid Nichols who won 361 games in the 1890s and early 1900s. He didn't have Nolan Ryan's fast ball or Steve Carlton's slider or Christy Mathewson's fade away or even the pinpoint control of a Greg Maddux. Instead, he had the most important trait of all -- he knew how to win. They made dramatic changes in the pitching rules after the 1892 season -- essentially creating the game we see today -- but while it virtually destroyed the careers of many of the pitchers of that time, Nichols was not noticeably impacted. He continued to win 30 games each year, just as he had done prior to the changes. Mason Lenhard has that same trait -- he knows how to win. Sure, he'll lose a couple of times during the regular season and look like he could have lost several others -- but when the "chips are down" Mason knows how to win. He already has won two State titles and remains a favorite to win his third, although it will not be easy.
This year Lenhard handily won the Ironman and was second at the Beast of the East to one of the nation's top-ranked 125s, Jack Spates. He was also second at the very, very tough 119 pound class at Medina, losing in the finals to the fabulous freshman, C. P. Schlatter. It was a fascinating bout with a wonderful first period of action with both boys having great takedown chances. Lenhard lost it in the second period when he couldn't get out, and was tilted for three points. I've wondered what would have happened if Lenhard had chosen neutral to start that period.
There are two State runners-up who will provide a stiff challenge for Lenhard. One is Joey Pflug who has moved up two weight classes and who is nonetheless a very big 119 pounds. Pflug had a sensational freshman year winning 36 straight bouts before losing in the finals to Ott 10-4. What I liked about his effort was that he wrestled to win, not to keep the score close. This year he is again undefeated with a title at Brecksville. DiSalvo lost a 5-4 State final at 112 pounds to Lenhard last year, and has been very solid all year, including placement at Reno and MIT. The key will be the Mentor District title. That winner will be away from both DiSalvo and the Mentor District loser. Incidentally, it will be absolutely ridiculous if Pflug and Lenhard meet in the semifinals at Mentor. It's about time we did the appropriate seeding for extravagantly credentialed duos like those two.
Glavan would seem to have the best shot for the third State berth at Mentor, but there are a host of other possibilities such as those listed in the rankings, and Mendez (Lorain Southview) and Leimkuehler. Watch out for the freshman Pietropinto; if not this year, then next.
Perry has six excellent candidates for three spots. Eibel is a two-time State qualifier who should be ready to place. State qualifier Hewitt has been injured much of the year, but he is very good when healthy. He has tremendous quickness and strength and is not afraid to be aggressive. He lost a barn burner to Lenhard in the MIT semifinals, 10-8. Thompson lost in the consolation semifinals to Hewitt last year, but finished ahead of him at the MIT. Januszewski has also missed much of the year after winning two State matches at 103 pounds last year. He and Thompson could both go if Hewitt is not 100 percent. Pniewski and Daisy are a step below this top quartet, but still of State calibre.
State qualifier Stevens heads up the Darby District coming off a third place finish at the Top Gun, including a 10-3 win over Eibel. He lost a tough double overtime State bout last year which, had it gone the other way, would have given him good placement chances. State qualifier Hansen split two bouts with Thompson, but struggles against the top boys. Lenhard beat him 23-8, for example.
The Southwest District, after DiSalvo, is not strong at this weight class. Wolery and Baysinger seem next best, and the former, in particular, might grab a low place. State qualifier Garcia and Hill both have strong upset potential, while Wolf (Northmont) and Christy (Piqua) could be State qualifiers. Look for DiSalvo not to have much trouble with this group.
Projected Champion: Mark Jayne (St. Edward) Top Contenders 2 Smith (St. Xavier) 14 Maxwell (Butler) 3 Moore (Westland) 15 Stahler (Wapakoneta) 4 Heldman (Marietta) 16 Herrera (Mayfield) 5 Ja. Pflug (Maple Hts.) 17 Baraga (Nordonia) 6 Kaney (Wayne) 18 Yurchisen (Garfield Hts.) 7 Penn (Solon) 19 Rohr (Massillon) 8 Sites (Coffman) 20 Fukuzawa (Holland Springfield) 9 Williams (Lorain Southview) 21 Lansley (Wadsworth) 10 Earich (Defiance) 22 Evangelista (Strongsville) 11 Norris (LaSalle) 23 Adams (Toledo St. John) 12 Teis (Hoover) 24 Fitch (East Liverpool) 13 Reiman (Hayes) 25 Anderson (Valley Forge)
No strictly Division I team has had more than two, three-time State champions, but St. Edward has the opportunity to push their total up to four with Lenhard and Jayne. That would tie them with Richmond Hts. who had four, three-time champs (actually one of them won four titles), and would have the added cachet of being accomplished in just 11 years.
Jayne will be a tremendously strong favorite at this class, even though there is a solid set of contestants poised to contend for the title. Rated by some publications as the best in the nation at this weight class, he possesses both superior physical attributes and outstanding technique and experience. He has wrestled a demanding schedule that should put him in top condition to defend his title. Jayne, headed for Illinois, is the type of wrestler who is fun to watch. He wrestles strictly to win and looks to create opportunities to score. A very physical performer, he is at his best with opponents who want to wrestle. He exemplifies what is best in high school wrestling -- the will to open up and truly attack even the strongest opponents, rather than to employ a defensive strategy aimed at capitalizing on opponents mistakes.
The Mentor District looks to be very strong. Right behind Jayne are two other State placers, Jason Pflug and DeAngelo Penn. Pflug was fourth at 119 pounds as a sophomore after wrestling a great State tournament. However, he missed the last portion of 1999 with a broken hand and was forced to the sideline once again for much of this year. I'm guessing 125 pounds might be a tough cut, but Pflug will certainly be fresh for tourney time. However, he will have to stay aggressive to get a high place. Penn was sixth last year and started this season at 119 pounds. However, he has been at 125 pounds for close to a month now, and I've chosen to rank him here. He, too, is very good when he maintains a positive and aggressive mental focus. Should Penn return to 119 pounds where he has certified, the third qualifying spot would be wide open. State qualifier Williams and several other very good contenders are shown in the rankings. A long shot here would be Pope (Shaker Hts.) who showed flashes of real brilliance at last year's district. Should he sustain that ability, he could sneak into a qualifying spot.
The Perry District is uncharacteristically weak at this weight class. Maybe I'm overlooking something (or someone) here, but I don't see many State wins from whichever trio qualifies for Columbus.
Smith and Heldman make the Fairfield District very strong. Smith, a State qualifier last year, has had a breakout season, winning at Medina, SWOCA and the CIT. Not only that, he has made it look effortless winning his three finals by a combined 32-5 score. Last year he lost to Jayne in the quarterfinal 17-4. Heldman comes from a part of the state where wrestling is not heavily emphasized, but he is the "real deal." Last year he cruised into the semifinals before getting pinned by Jayne in 1:20. He could not halt the downward slide and finished sixth. He could do better this year. This duo is backed up by State qualifier Kaney and a well experienced supporting cast. The last two State spots will be very fiercely contested at this district.
Moore was fifth last year and should be the best at Darby. I was very impressed with him at Medina as he finished fourth, losing to Linich and Moody in close matches. He is very good on the mat, but Linich, in particular, took him down three times to win that bout. Sites is probably second best here, with State qualifier Earich also very strong. The last two spots, as at Fairfield, will be up for grabs.
Projected Champion: Matt McIntire (Lakota West)
Top Contenders 2 Spires (Lancaster) 14 Kovach (Massillon Perry) 3 West (Fairborn) 15 Harris (Holland Springfield) 4 Spatola (Elder) 16 Tran (Sylvania Northview) 5 Tepley (Garfield Hts.) 17 Kist (Hamilton) 6 Jordan (East Liverpool) 18 Schleucher (Celina) 7 Mann (St. Edward) 19 Danes (Eastlake North) 8 B. Zinkan (Moeller) 20 McGee (Cuyahoga Falls) 9 Harpster (Wapakoneta) 21 Tarnai (Valley Forge) 10 Gonzalez (Start) 22 Ware (Westlake) 11 Salyers/Stehlin (Fairfield) 23 Schinke (Greenville) 12 Wimmers (Marysville) 24 Kupniewski/Spencer (Maple Hts.) 13 Ali (Cleveland Hts.) 25 Trepal (Willoughby South)
This is a competition that features a wide variety of body types and wrestling styles. Certainly, there is no one outstanding contender and I could envision any of a half-dozen competitors standing on the top step of the award stand at the Value City Arena. There are solid contenders at every district site, but four of my top eight will exit at Fairfield. As mentioned earlier, the Southwest District enjoyed a banner year in 1999, and seems strong at almost every weight class again this year. That perception may arise in part because of the number of returning State qualifiers. I have a theory that districts that return a high proportion of State qualifiers generally do well in State competition. Let's take a look at how that ratio looks this year.
Division Qualifiers % of Returning 1999 State Qualifiers
I Northeast District 6 48.8%
I Central/Northwest District 5 44.0%
I Southwest District 5 57.1%
49.1%
II Northeast District 5 44.3% II Central/Northwest District 4 46.4% II Eastern District
3 35.7% II Southwest District 4 53.6% 45.5%
III Northeast District 4 55.4% III Northwest District 5 45.7% III Central/Eastern
District 4 44.6% III Southwest District 3 50.0% 48.7%
So, in Division I, the Southwest District does return the highest proportion of qualifiers, which is a clear marker as to why that area seems strong again this year. I guess you could also make the argument that a very weak district might return a high proportion of qualifiers since many underclassmen might qualify. However, with eight finalists and five champions, the Southwest District clearly was not a weak sister last year.
At least in my mind, if everyone had to wrestle aggressively for six minutes each bout at this weight class, Matt McIntire would be an easy winner. Only a sophomore, he is a superior performer who is anxious to wrestle six hard offensively-oriented minutes. Last year he was a State semifinalist before losing three State bouts and finishing sixth. This year he won at both the SWOCA and the Brecksville in close matches against some of his toughest opponents at this weight class. Unfortunately for him, several of them are very defensive wrestlers who seek a down-tempo match that will keep it close. Let's look at the top contenders.
Spatola was fourth at 119 pounds last year, and has lost only to McIntire and Barnett this year. He is very tall and tends to wrestle low scoring bouts. At the SWOCA, McIntire scored takedowns in the second and third period to eke out a 4-3 win. He was quoted as saying, "he's a defensive wrestler and waits for opponent to make a mistake." A good summation about a wrestler who will make you work extraordinarily hard to beat him.
Spires has twice placed at the State level and he, too, is extraordinarily tough to score upon. Last year he lost to eventual State champ Dies (3-2) and won five bouts by scores of 3-2, 5-1 OT, OT TBK, 5-3 OT, and 3-2. He'll slow McIntire down and force him into mistakes if he possibly can.
West, on the other hand, can be more aggressive, although his victory over McIntire last year was 3-1 whereas McIntire's victory was 5-4. He was a finalist at Medina losing a slow-placed bout to Barnett in overtime. He has loads of ability and is already a two-time State placer despite being only a junior.
At Fairfield we have West, Spatola, McIntire and the excellent Zinkan in what should be a battle royal. This is an exceptional district confrontation, whose final rounds could well foreshadow what will happen in Columbus the next weekend. Spires is just too experienced and too solid for the field at Darby. He should emerge as district champion and may be the only qualifier from this district to place.
At Mentor, Tepley and Mann would seem to be strongest. Tepley, too, has strong defensive skills and took McIntire into overtime in the Brecksville final 1-1, 3-1 OT. I was surprised he failed to get out of the district last year, but he should make it to Columbus this year. Mann won the Mentor District title last year, but won only one State bout. McIntire beat him by a point, and he then lost a tense overtime struggle. This year he looked great at the Ironman, but lost to West and Galchick at Medina and did not place. He's good on his feet, but he is facing a squadron of defensive stalwarts.
Projected Champion: Jason Bake (Massillon Jackson)
Top Contenders 2 J. Yetzer (Mansfield Madison) 14 Elliott (Mayfield) 3 Lampe (Glen Este) 15 Campbell (Pickerington) 4 Ruth (Winton Woods) 16 Sommer (West Carrollton) 5 Neely (Thomas Worthington) 17 Fogliano (Maple Hts.) 6 Jakuszewski (Green) 18 Sandquist (Fitch) 7 Lybarger (Mt. Vernon) 19 Reuter (Fairfield) 8 Adams (St. Ignatius) 20 Morris (Rogers) 9 DiGiovanni (Solon) 21 Verlinger (Nordonia) 10 Dysart (Coffman) 22 Ringle (Westerville North) 11 Webb (Beavercreek) 23 Baria (Moeller) 12 Riley (Wadsworth) 24 Kennedy (Westlake) 13 Stamper (Miamisburg) 25 Vondruska (St. Edward)
In the 12 years that the 135 pound weight class has been in existence, my top choice has won eight times and my second choice the other four. That suggests either uncanny good fortune or a consistent series of strong performers at this weight class. The latter component is the most probable alternative, and in 2000 we are seeing yet another in that long line emerge. Jason Bake finished 39-5 as a sophomore 125 pounds last year losing both the district final and State final to David Dies in overtime. The State final was forced into overtime on a penalty point against Bake. Tremendously strong and with a great work ethic, Bake has had little trouble moving up two weight classes; and his exceptional desire to win make him the most formidable contestant at this weight class.
Probably the big news at this weight class was Josh Yetzer's decision to certify at 135 pounds and challenge Bake. Strategically, it was a great call; and if Yetzer can wrestle well at this class, he will be a very worthy opponent for Bake. Last year Yetzer was one match from placing at this weight class. He heads a very tough Darby District. Neely was the Medina champ and also won at Franklin Hts. defeating Fogliano. He was a strong third at the Midwest Classic and this junior will challenge Yetzer for that district title. Lyburger and Dysart are also excellent and have solid placement potential. Dysart is an integral element of a strong set of Coffman middleweights, all of whom could qualify out of that five-man district. Whoever draws this group in the first round will have a tough series of bouts.
Bake will also emerge from a very competitive district. Jakuszewski lost his district semifinal in overtime, and then lost to eventual State runner-up Dimitris in his go-to-State bout. Very tall, he presents a different profile to most opponents and is difficult to wrestle. He lost to Bake in the Wadsworth finals and to Yetzer in the Top Gun finale. Adams is a bit of a fooler, but he won the Solon at a very difficult weight class and also won at the CIT. Riley and Sandquist may be left out, but it won't be without a battle. Riley lost in overtime to Jakuszewski, while Sandquist's only real drubbing came via a technical fall courtesy of Bake.
Lampe and Ruth are the class of a tough Fairfield District field and they are difficult to separate. Ruth beat Lampe at the Sycamore on tie breaker, while Lampe won the SWOCA by a single point. Both are physically dominating, and both have past State experience. Last year Ruth pinned Neely in a consolation bout, but came up just short of placement. The second tier of competitors at this weight class are also very good. State qualifier Stamper, Webb and Sommer should be the favorites for the last three sports, but I think Reuter may capture one of them. Besides those listed, I also like Zamora (Princeton) and Klein (St. Xavier).
The usually strong Mentor District has some real opportunity at this weight class. DiGiovanni was an exceptional freshman last year and barely missed State qualification at 125 pounds. His two go-to-State matches were both close, losing to Bake 8-7 and then to the senior Mike Simon. Everyone expected him to be a world-beater from day one this year, but it hasn't happened yet. He was third at Solon, losing to Adams and barely beating Ryan Hurley. He defeated Neely 5-4 in their dual, but then lost to ondruska. He should be the best at Mentor by district time. I've listed a number of others, but watch out for Vondruska. He was only sixth at Medina and didn't place at the Ironman, but he has wrestled a brutal schedule. The upset of DiGiovanni could be a harbinger of more good things to follow.
Projected Champion: Jake percival (Amherst)
Top Contenders 2 Dimitris (Brecksville) 14 Clouse (Massillon Perry) 3 J. Zinkan (Moeller) 15 Wiley (Beavercreek) 4 Kremer (Green) 16 Melssen (Toledo Central Catholic) 5 Eger (Coffman) 17 Terbay (Carroll) 6 C. McIntire (Lakota West) 18 Garro (Uniontown Lake) 7 Dunstan (St. Edward) 19 Ghrist (East Liverpool) 8 Spivey (Thomas Worthington) 20 Huddle (Marion Harding) 9 Palmer (Findlay) 21 Doggett (Tecumseh) 10 Maddox (Start) 22 Lock (St. Ignatius) 11 Burke (Wayne) 23 Bailey (Westerville North) 12 Ashby (Mentor) 24 Helmer (Piqua) 13 DeMarco (Hudson) 25 Bowersock (Wapakoneta)
Last year there were three wrestlers who were hoping to avoid the Gene Gibbons syndrome (three State runner-up trophies), Vincent Gay, Anthony Carrizales and Dean Taylor. As it turned out, all three won well-deserved State titles bypassing the fate of both Gene Gibbons (1945/46/47) and Norm Codner (1953/54/55). This year Jake Percival, a truly outstanding wrestler, looks to move up one step on the podium and win his first State crown. Percival was third as a freshmen at 103 pounds losing 4-2 to eventual State champ McBurney, then second to Jayne at 112 pounds on a quick fall, and then second at 130 pounds last year in a titanic struggle with Jeff Ratliff, 24-15. It is likely that both of his final losses will have been to three-time State champions. Last year he was 36-0 entering that final bout, and he has only three defeats in three years. More telling has been the size of victories, almost all by fall or technical fall. He has literally had no close bouts the last two years, totally dominating every opponent except Ratliff. As an addendum, Lucas Sedgmer did get a unique record last year by finishing in third place for three consecutive years at 152 pounds in Division III. The Cadiz star lost all three years to the eventual State runner-up.
Dimitris, too, is a returning State runner-up, but his State final couldn't have been any more different than Percival's. As you may recall, Ratliff came out totally "pumped" to face Percival and led 15-5 after one period. It was, perhaps, one of the most frantic first periods in State final history. After that Percival outscored him 10-9, but it was too little too late. Dimitris, on the other hand, wrestled a strategic match against Branham, who had pinned him at last year's Ironman. Ahead 2-1 late in the third period, he was in the process of capturing a takedown when he was inexplicably warned with four seconds remaining. It was certainly the worst call of 1999 and defies rational understanding. Dimitris then lost in overtime.
As I mentioned, Percival has had another sensational year winning everything in sight by large scores, but not so Dimitris. He as fifth as the Ironman, losing to Bake by a point, and Kemble and looked sluggish and slow. He moved to 152 pounds at the Brecksville winning that title for the fourth time (only the second in history to do so), but had to go overtime to beat Powell. Then back at 140 pounds he had all falls at St. Xavier and seems to be back on track.
The Mentor District hosts both these contenders, and again let's hope they meet in the finals, along with State qualifier Dunstan. That's a terrific trio and all have solid State placement opportunities. Dunstan was second at Medina, but didn't place at the Ironman losing to Pennsylvania sensation Esposito (who Percival pinned) and Kemble. DeMarco and the excellent Ashby need to pull a big upset to quality.
State qualifiers Zinkan and McIntire head a strong field at Fairfield. Zinkan was a State semifinalist last year at 130 pounds before losing to Percival 9-3 and ending up fourth. A flashy high-scoring wrestler, he won at the SWOCA and CIT and was undefeated at the National Duals. McIntire, a two-time State qualifier, won a 3-1 decision over Dunstan in first-round State action, but then was overwhelmed by Braham and Skoch. He has been at 145 pounds much of this season with runner-up finishes at the SWOCA and Brecksville. Both times he was just plain overpowered in the finals. Burke, Wiley and former State qualifier Doggett make this a very deep weight at this district, especially when you add in the impressive young sophomore Terbay. A semifinalist at Medina, he ended up losing close bouts to Dunston, Yetzer and Kremer.
State qualifier Spivey and Eger head a tough Columbus contingent at the Darby District, but State qualifier Maddox, Palmer and Melssen are all good out of Toledo. Eger down from 145 pounds is very strong while Spivey, who looks like a 135 pound, is quick. He was at 119 pounds last year. I was impressed with Maddox at the Brecksville Tourney, where he was fourth. The surprise, however, has been Palmer, who has put together some big wins. Last year as a 145 pounder, he lost his only two district bouts. However, this year he upset Maddox 11-9 at St. John and is currently undefeated. Melssen was a State alternate last year and was third at the CIT behind Zinkan and Durkin.
State placer Kremer heads the Perry field; and he is one of those wrestlers who always seems to grab a top spot no matter how tough the tournament. He was sixth at Columbus last year, but only lost to Zinkan by an 8-7 score. He seems to be a particularly dangerous consolation round wrestler. Clouse or State qualifier Garro are probably next best, but they will have a tough time winning at States. Garro certified at 135 pounds, but strategically may feel this is a better weight class. Clouse lost to Dimitris 11-4 at the Ironman and to Kremer 16-4 at Medina, so he has some ground to make up by district time. However, Massillon Perry wrestlers tend to peak late in the year and you discount them there at your own risk.
Projected Champion: Dave Bolyard (Akron Springfield)
Top Contenders 2 Z. Kallai (Wadsworth) 14 Sharkey (Miamisburg) 3 N. Yetzer (Mansfield Madison) 15 Geib (Wapakoneta) 4 Lyons (Moeller) 16 Young (Piqua) 5 Wahoff (Fairfield) 17 Poling (Rogers) 6 Hernan (Madison) 18 Jackson (Holland Springfield) 7 Maher (Pickerington) 19 Tomaszewski (Tiffin Columbian) 8 Leabu (St. Edward) 20 Chatterelli (Massillon) 9 E. Mahone (Bedford) 21 Kathman (Elder) 10 McDaniel (Wayne) 22 Ishizuka (Coffman) 11 McKinney (Davidson) 23 Holztrager (Normandy) 12 Fisher (Ashland) 24 Moore (Harrison) 13 Wilson (Solon) 25 Akili (Buchtel)
It seems pretty clear-cut that the strongest, classiest field in Division I will be at 145 pounds. It is a very experienced assemblage with 10 wrestlers having outstanding credentials. In addition, it is a diverse field with lots of different styles and ways of winning, which should make for excellent competition. It is also the weight class with my longest consecutive string of forecasting success. I've hit it right for eight consecutive years, but rarely has this weight class been this deep and this talented. My choice to end up as the eventual winner is the powerful and aggressive Dave Bolyard. It would not be a stretch to say that he has been the most impressive wrestler I have seen so far this year. He tore through the Brecksville Tourney defeating two-time State qualifier Chris McIntire 16-1 in the final round. The blond-haired bomber seemed unbeatable as he combined speed and strength with an aggressive mind-set. In every bout he looked like somebody on a search and destroy mission, and he was not afraid to take a well-calculated chance. Bolyard was second as a sophomore and fourth last year, losing to eventual champ Branham and Skoch.
As good as Bolyard is, this weight is full of splendid match ups and great competition, and an upset would not be an enormous surprise. Battling Bolyard at Massillon Perry is the excellent Zak Kallai. He had a great junior year, then ended on kind of a down note. He lost a 5-5 tie breaker in overtime in the district finals, and then two heartbreakingly close decisions in his first two State bouts, 5-4 to Ruth and 6-4 in OT to Federico. This year, up three weight classes, he was third at North Canton, defeating Josh Yetzer, and first at Wadsworth wtih big wins over Hernan and Fisher. Then at the Top Gun he won against a great field defeating State runner-up Nate Yetzer in the finals 14-6. He and Bolyard will be a dominating duo at the Massillon Perry District with the third spot up for grabs. A long-shot possibility is the small Ambrose (Green), who while very good, has moved up because of Kremer and Jakuszewski.
Don't count out Nate Yetzer, either. He was the State runner-up at 140 pounds last year and has been battling the flu bug most of January. Still he crushed everyone at 152 pounds at the Gorman and finished ahead of Hernan, Fisher and Canoles at the Top Gun. He also blasted Leabu to win the Medina, which also included wins over Ishizuka and Eger. He and his brother have had four outstanding high school years, and have provided a lot of impetus for wrestling in the Mansfield area. It will seem strange without them next year.
That Darby District will not be easy, even for Yetzer. State qualifier Maher is back and, while it's taken some time to get him rolling, should be very tough by late February. A star player on Pickerington's State semifinal team, he has had a slow start (see Division II at 215 pounds), but is an outstanding athlete. State qualifiers Fisher and Jackson are also here, and I like the former as a potential low placer. He was fourth at the Top Gun and won the Gorman when Yetzer elected to compete at 152 pounds.
It's a closely packed group at Mentor. Hernan was a district finalist last year, but drew the tough Effner in the first round at States and could not handle his mat wrestling. This year he won the Ironman over Leabu (5-3), was second at Wadsworth to Kallai (7-2) and third at the Top Gun (pinning Fisher in the consolation finals). Leabu was second at both the Ironman and Medina, but has good skills. Only a junior, he'll be outstanding when he realizes how good he really is. The explosive Mahone is down from 152 pounds and this could be the wild card in this competition. He has the power to take anybody to their back, and with all his older brothers, you know he must be tough. He was still in early season shape when I saw him, but when he goes six hard minutes, it will be a real battle. Wilson has been overlooked all year, but this Solon senior is very steady. He majored Ishizuka at the Ohio Duals and lost to Leabu by just two points. If any of the top three at this district falter, he will be right there. Westfall (Garfield Hts.) is a long shot.
Lyons is a sharp, aggressive wrestler who scores lots of points, but give up some, too. He is stylistically similar to Bolyard, and a bout between the two of them might end up with both in double figures. A district champion last year, he was exceptional this year, winning the SWOCA 16-7 over McIntire and crushing Wickert 17-1 to take the CIT. Wahoff has been sixth the last two years and has the ability to challenge the go-for-broke wrestlers. Lyons beat him 9-5 at the SWOCA and Bolyard won 9-8 last year at the State meet. He's the type of competitor who could upset Bolyard by getting an early lead and the capitalizing on overaggressive mistakes. McDaniel could be a big help to Wayne's team chances if he can somehow fight his way through this maze of superstars.
Projected Champion: Ryan Bertin (St. Edward)
Top Contenders 2 Blanks (Moeller) 15 Simon (St. Xavier) 3 Kapustka (Centerville) 16 Gillette (Wapakoneta) 4 C. Zallai (Wadsworth) 17 McElroy (Lebanon) 5 Strouth (Coffman) 18 Franke (Clay) 6 Ruberg (Harrison) 19 Powell (Glen Oak) 7 McNally (North Royalton) 20 Hawald (Solon) 8 Bauer (Ashland) 21 Neely (Princeton) 9 Gray (Fitch) 22 Kuhner (Pickerington) 10 Patzakis (Madison) 23 Osting (Piqua) 11 Stevens (Thomas Worthington) 24 Carmony (Wooster) 12 Willis (Lakota East) 25 Martin (Beavercreek) 13 Marzec (Toledo St. Francis) 26 Burton (Hayes) 14 Werstler (North Canton) 27 Iliff (Fremont Ross)
Have you ever noticed that there are two different kinds of scoring systems in sports? In most athletic endeavors you earn victories according to an agreed upon set of rules as in baseball, ice hockey, or golf. However, there are some sports where you are judged like figure skating, gymnastics, or diving. In those contests there is more or less a regular progression of winners, with participants "paying their dues" until it's their turn to win. Well, if wrestling was judged we'd certainly say it's Ryan Bertin's turn to win. Already a three-time qualifier, he looked to be the best at 135 pounds his sophomore year, but he lost a tough semifinal bout to the senior Iacoboni, who he had twice previously defeated. Then last year he was absolutely outstanding, but ended up with three-time champ Ty Morgan at 145 pounds. Morgan was just too strong defeating Bertin, first in overtime at the Ohio Duals and then more easily in the State finals. This year Bertin has been absolutely brilliant. This Michigan recruit was the MVP at both the Ironman and the Beast of the East, two of the country's most prestigious high school tourneys. He should easily be the champion this year, but the wrestling gods can sometimes be a cruel and fickle lot. Nonetheless, he'll enter the competition as one of the strongest favorites in Division I (along with Ott).
While Bertin looks to be close to a sure thing at the top of this list everything else is wild and confused. There has been a lot of back and forth with form failing to hold at many tournaments. You might anticipate a lot of so called inconsistencies in the ratings mainly because there has been a lot of inconsistencies in the results.
I've placed Blanks second, but he'll have to be in top form to hold that ranking. He won the SWOCA on a fall, but was behind to Willis at that time. He also won a much narrower than anticipated decision over Marzec to claim the CIT title. A State qualifier as a sophomore last year, he won two bouts but failed to place. Bertin beat him 12-4 and Enright won a 12-11 thriller for placement status. There are plenty of challenges for Blanks at Fairfield. Two-time State qualifier and defending district champ Kapustka returns and he is very good. He easily won the giant GMVWA and has four solid years of varsity experience to count on. State qualifier Ruberg has been at 160 pounds much of the year and he is also a very dangerous opponent. When he is "on," he'll go with anywhere here with the exception of Bertin. However, he has had patches of inconsistency. This is a deep group with Willis, Simon, McElroy, Osting and Neely all with good credentials. The battle for district placement will start early here.
Bertin should have litttle trouble at Mentor. The real mystery is Patzakis who transferred over from Richmond Hts. For a variety of reasons, he has not wrestled much, so it's difficult to tell how well he'll do this year. Still, past efforts are encouraging. Last year he took a 29-1 record into his district semifinals before inexplicably losing two decisions by a total of three points. With Hernan as a workout partner, he should be primed for State qualification. State qualifier Bernard and Hawald will battle for the last qualifying berth.
The excellent Chris Kallai was the only wrestler with that last name not to reach the State Tournament out of the Perry District last year. He lost his critical consolation round match up to eventual runner-up Dimitris, and ended up as a spectator at Columbus. This year all three Kallais should qualify making Grandma Kallai a very happy lady. Chris was third at North Canton, first at Wadsworth, second at the Top Gun (to an out-of-state wrestler) and has excellent State placement potential. The sophomore Gray, State qualifier Werstler, and the rapidly improving McNally all factor into the mix. In addition, Powell, who just missed beating Dimitris at Brecksville, also placed at the Top Gun and he just keeps getting better. Carmony is Wooster's best wrestler and he has beaten Bauer.
The Darby District is also very good. Strouth beat Hernan and Ruberg last year, and has had an excellent year except for his misadventures at Medina. State qualifier Gillette is on the right half of the ratings grid and that may be too low. He beat Strouth at Medina, but I've had trouble getting an accurate fix on him. Bauer is another wrestler that may well be better than I've ranked him. He's had some big wins this year, and seems to be rounding into top form at just the right time. You'd think there would be plenty of margin for error with five qualifiers, but that just isn't true at this district.
Projected Champion: Mike Smith (Lorain Southview)
Top Contenders 2 Padgett (Fairfield) 15 Nehrenz (Akron Springfield) 3 Magistrelli (Maple Hts.) 16 Apfelstadt (Scioto) 4 M. Kallai (Wadsworth) 17 Heard (Princeton) 5 Schweda (St. Edward) 18 Avsec (Geneva) 6 Miller (Marietta) 19 Cox (Butler) 7 Knudsen (Westland) 20 Van Fossen (New Philadelplhia) 8 Stevens (Carroll) 21 Rush (Piqua) 9 Warnock (Maumee) 22 Eiliott (Thomas Worthington) 10 Stephens (Brookhaven) 23 Robertson (Westlake) 11 Bartlett (Wapakoneta) 24 DiDonato (Uniontown Lake) 12 Pacetti (North Royalton) 25 Rogacki (Holland Springfield) 13 Salahuddin (Brush) 26 Jamerson (Canton McKinley) 14 Humphrey (Fairborn)
Every weight class, like snowflakes, seems to have its own structure and form. No two are exactly alike, but some are far more confusing and undefined than others. A good example of such a weight class is the competition at 160 pounds. Here there are between five and ten potential champions, but each brings to the competition questions that do not have easy answers. Certainly, it is clear that none of this group has taken charge of this weight class, and we may well find the eventual winner was unable to win a district title. In summation, there are a lot of opportunities lurking at this weight class, and it will be the opportunistic competitor who will best take advantage of such a situation.
My eventual choice after a lot of relatively fruitless analysis is the excellent Southview senior, Mike Smith. This is a very talented individual who is just plain entertaining to watch. Last year he walked through the Mentor District beating Schweda 9-3 in the finals. Everyone was contemplating a Lange/Smith State finals match up, but it didn't happen. Davie Mahone caught and pinned him in 35 seconds in the opening round, and still in shock Smith lost a few hours later 6-5 and was out of the tournament. Unbelievable!
This year Smith has been excellent winning at Southview and the Midwest Classic and defeating Magistrelli 3-2 at the Ohio Duals. However, at that same event Bartlett held him to a 1-0 victory, while Stevens pushed him at 13-10. It was a great day for Smith defeating three tough opponents, but us forecasters would have liked to see a little bigger margin for error against the latter two competitors. Magistrelli was fifth last year and he and Smith will be apart at Columbus. Magistrelli seems often to wrestle to the level of his opponent, and that can cause early round problems at big tournaments. This year Magistrelli has won at Brecksville and Franklin Hts., and it is certainly possible that he'll reverse that outcome the next time he meets Smith. Schweda is also at Mentor and we're talking a terrific trio. Schweda won at Medina pinning Knudsen after having lost to him at the Ironman. As mentioned, he was second to Smith at last year's district and followed that same path at Columbus losing twice 8-7 and 10-7 on the first night. Incidentally, his excellent back up Schillens lost 3-2 to Magistrelli at the Ohio Duals.
Padgett was fourth last year at the Value Center Arena including an overtime win over Magistrelli. This year he won at Fairfield and the SWOCA, but was upset by Savelli at the Kenston final. He beat State qualifier Stevens 10-3 last year, and that will be one of his two principal district threats this year. The other will be State qualifier Seth Miller who was a finalist at this year's Top Gun and was the district champ at Darby last year. That, like Mentor, is a terrific trio, but in this case there's even more. Humphrey, Rush, Heard and Cox all could win at Columbus, if they can get there, while Ostholthoff (Moeller), Flint (Lebanon) and Fouts (Xenia) are also possibilities.
The free-wheeling Knudsen, a State qualifier last year, heads the Darby District. I like high scoring bouts, so he is one to watch. His third place bout at Medina was typical as he defeated Stevens 17-12. That style can win some matches that seem out of reach, but it can backfire as well. On a hot weekend Knudsen could be a finalist. Warnock just missed qualification in that very tough 160 pound class at Galion, but should make it easily this year. He has won at Perrysburg, Tiffin and St. Johns while had to default in the finals at Rogers. He, clearly, is tournament tested. Bartlett is a tenacious wrestler who is tough to beat. He lost to Smith 1-0 and to Stevens 2-1 this year making him a formidable opponent. Also, pay attention to Stephens who has won two tourneys this year an has upset potential.
Matt Kallai might have been the Division I freshman of the year in 1999. Wrestling at 145 pounds, he dominated the Perry District, pinning in the finals, and then won four State bouts to finish third. His only loss was to three-time State champ Ty Morgan. This year he has been learning his way, up two weight classes, finishing second at Wadsworth and third at the Top Gun. He lost nine bouts last year, but only one of 13 once sectionals began. Pacetti and Nehrenz seem a good, long step behind Kallai, but ahead of everyone else for those last two spots.
Projected Champion: Joe Phillips (Maple Hts.)
Top Contenders 2 DeAnna (Westlake) 15 Saylor (Fairfield) 3 Clift (Brunswick) 16 Alexander (Howland) 4 Clemens (Carroll) 17 Bidlack (Defiance) 5 Pliev (Princeton) 18 Klimkowicz (Madison) 6 D. Mahone (Bedford) 19 Whitted (Findlay) 7 Hallahan (St. Edward) 20 Snyder (Massillon Perry) 8 Doerflein (Harrison) 21 Rotonda (Reynoldsburg) 9 Abrams (Lebanon) 22 Russell (Beavercreek) 10 Francis (Maumee) 23 Robertson (Normandy) 11 Camargo (Berea) 24 Fairman (Mayfield) 12 Lukens (Moeller) 25 Awls (Rogers) 13 Klaus (Wadsworth) 26 Lovell (Akron Springfield) 14 Lucas (Davidson) 27 Wilson (Westland)
This is another weight class where there are far more questions than answers, but it is also one with a strong slate of contenders. It also brings into focus the apportionment of qualifiers issue that has been heavily discussed. If I've done the math correctly, there are 191 Division I schools with 16 places available at each weight class. The subsequent division creates an average of 11.9 schools per each qualification spot. Now, breaking that out by district creates the following table:
Teams Qualifiers Teams/Qualifier Northeast 77 6 12.8 Central/Northwest 58 5 11.6 Southwest 56 5 11.3
There seems to be at least some disparity there although the corresponding answer would speak to the difficulties associated with the currently used district model. Still, we all like real equity in the artificial world of sports since it's often difficult to find in real life, and an answer ought to be developed that closes this proportionality gap. How big an impact does it have? Let's look at the third place finishers from last year and their State tournament record.
Districts Championship Consolation Total % Placing
Round Round Record
Northeast 17-28 24-30 41-59 32.1%
North 5-14 8-13 13-27 7.1%
South 12-14 16-17 28-31 57.1%
Central 6-14 8-16 14-30 14.3%
Northwest 0-14 3-14 3-18 0.0%
Southwest 8-14 12-15 20-29 28.6%
Overall 31-70 47-75 88-145 21.4%
The Mentor District is loaded at this weight class. Phillips was both a district and State runner-up to the superb Ryan Lange last year, which included a 5-4 win over Clemens in the State semifinals. This year he won easily at Franklin Hts., but fell behind Doerflein at the Brecksville semifinals and lost a 3-2 squeaker. Quick and strong, his one flaw may be a tendency to fall behind early. If so, this weight class is filled with too many excellent wrestlers for that to be a workable strategy. For example, he barely nipped Lovell 4-3 in the first round at Brecksville, and a consistent pattern like that is just tempting fate.
I came very close to choosing Tony DeAnna as champion, and for three very good reasons. First, a State title would make the DeAnna family the first to have a grandfather/father/son set of State champs. Lina winning in 1953 for West Tech, Mike winning three times (1974-76) and Tony taking the title this year. Second, I've had very good luck in the past choosing the DeAnnas, and I'm partial to such trending. And third, and most importantly, DeAnna is very good. He is a two-time State qualifier who missed placement last year by a single point, and who has already won three tourneys this year, including the powerful Brecksville. At that meet he finished ahead of Phillips, Clift and Doerflein.
Also at Mentor is David Mahone, who transferred to Bedford this year. He has outstanding physical skills, but has had a succession of nagging injuries this year. He was sixth and 160 pounds last year losing twice to Clemens. An important issue for Mahone is staying off his back. He was pinned three times at the State meet, and was caught once again at Medina. Hallahan is currently the odd man out in this three-man district, but he is good. However, Phillips and Clemens both handled him at the Ohio Duals and he'll have little margin for error at Mentor. Underclassmen Klimkowicz and Fairman are a year away here, while the rest of the field is even further behind.
They say luck evens out and if that's true Justin Clift should be in very good shape the next two months. Last year, he missed substantial time with injuries, but peaked at tournament time finishing second at the Perry District. After a first-round fall at Columbus, he met two-time State runner-up (and my choice) Vincent Gay in the second round. Down 8-2, he caught Gay in the third period and, in reality, probably pinned him. I had an excellent view and I thought that it was one more of my picks to the consolation round. However, it was not called and Gay escaped with an 8-7 win (he also was in line for some good fortune) and his eventual State title. This year at Brecksville, Clift lost 7-6 to DeAnna in the 30-second overtime, and then lost 6-6 to Phillips on the other end of that tie breaker. Clearly, he is right at the top level at this weight class and just a tiny little impetus could put on the top step of the podium. Camargo and Klaus have both had excellent seasons with the former winning the Top Gun in a major surprise. Both Alexander and Snyder may be just as good, with the latter pining Mahone at Medina. An excellent district weight class.
There is not much to discuss at Darby. This is parity at its finest, but none of the five qualifiers are likely to capture even a low place. Besides those listed, I have also noted good work by Beechum (Marion Harding), Zohn (Toledo St. John), Spangler (Grove City) and Lenix (Toledo Central Catholic).
However, at Fairfield it's a different story. The solid Clemens is a steady winner. He was fifth at Columbus last year, and continues to place well at every tournament entered. Unfortunately he hasn't been winning any of them, primarily due to the depth and quality of the Division II contenders at this weight class. Pliev is the most intriguing contender. I mentioned him last year as a Russian émigré who had spent only a few months in the U.S., and knew only free style. Well, he was a State qualifier at 145 pounds as a freshman and won a first-round State bout. Now it's a year later and he's starting to really get acclimated to high school wrestling, and that spells danger for the rest of the field. Up three weight classes, he won the SWOCA defeating two-time State qualifier Abrams in an overtime finals. He had less trouble at St. Xavier defeating Brecksville finalist Doerflein 10-6 in the finals. Both the boys will be back to challenge he and Clemens at the district level in what should be a great wrestling spectacle. Add in Lukens who won the SWOCA at 189 pounds as a substitute and these five qualifiers will provide formidable first-round State competition.
Projected Champion: Alexander Lammers (Wayne)
Top Contenders 2 Chilcote (Groveport Madison) 15 Griffiths (Davidson) 3 Rings (Marysville) 16 Doxsey (Fairfield) 4 Cronin (Moeller) 17 Mahaffey (Dover) 5 Delguyd (Mayfield) 18 Hiller (Greenville) 6 Camino (Solon) 19 Helm (Elyria) 7 Hasenohrl (Maple Hts.) 20 Bialowas (St. Edward) 8 Jones (Lakota East) 21 Powell (Defiance) 9 Jontony (Strongsville) 22 Seitz (Milford) 10 Donley (Clay) 23 Weiler (Ashland) 11 Cherry (Sandusky) 24 Proctor (Shaker Hts.) 12 Smithey (Wapakoneta) 25 Drier (Howland) 13 Lozano (Midpark) 26 Farrell (Oak Hills) 14 Poe (Cloverleaf) 27 Braun (New Philadelphia)
Now that Brent Miller has definitely committed to 215 pounds, Lammers stands alone atop the 189 pound class. The defending State champion would have had as his only real obstacle would have been a vengeance-minded Miller cutting to 189 pounds. Last year they split two matches, but Lammers won the critical State semifinal battle 3-2 and cruised to the title. He had primarily falls at both the district and State level last year, and it will be more of the same this season. His only loss was a 9-7 OT battle at Reno, but no one in Ohio is within a half-dozen points of him.
Probably the strongest district will be the one held at Darby. Rings was a Division II State runner-up at this weight class losing to Pentorn in the finals. The big surprise was his shocking win over Bauer in a 7-4 semifinal upset. This year he has continued to do well having lost only to State qualifier Chilcote at Tiffin. Chilcote won a State bout last year, but was walloped 14-1 by Miller. Also back is State qualifier Cherry, along with Donley, Griffiths and Weiler. Cherry did not look sharp early in the season, but has been winning consistently as of late. The mystery man here is Zach Smithey. He wrestled up a weight at 215 pounds last year, unable to beat out Miller. Nonetheless, he was a State qualifier, although he ended the season with 14 losses. As far as I can tell, he has not wrestled this year, but is certified at 189 pounds. It will be interesting to see how he will do if he does compete.
Nobody is close to Lammers at Fairfield, but Cronin and State qualifier Jones are both good. Cronin missed some of the early action, but won the CIT and was undefeated at the National Duals. Jones was a district runner-up last year and beat Delguyd's nephew in the first round 7-6. He was third at Brecksville, losing only a close one-point bout to Hasenohrl.
There is also a small mystery at Perry. Lozano, who defeated both Shrewsberry and Camino handily at Solon, has not competed in some time. If he is healthy and ready to go, he has top five potential. Otherwise, Jontony, the Brecksville runner-up, is best here. He lost by a point to Hasenohrl in the final. The rest of the district is solid but unspectacular, and not likely to cause Lammers too many sleepless nights. Braun, a transfer from Indian Valley, is an interesting possibility, as is Mahaffey who placed well at the Top Gun.
The sophomore Delguyd won at DeSales, Wadworth and Hudson and was a 1-0 loser to Shrewsberry at the WRC. He has great upside potential over the next two and a half years. A State placement this year would be a great foundational element for his resume. Camino has been very steady with some big wins, including a defeat of Hasenohrl in the dual. Lammers pinned him, however. Hasenohrl is a very small 189 pounds, but knows how to win. He was champion at Brecksville, but lost to Chilcote 8-5 in the Franklin Hts. finals. Lammer beat him 16-7 in the dual meet. Both Helm and Bialowas have the ability to make the top three at Mentor and qualify.
Projected Champion: Brent Miller (Wapakoneta)
Top Contenders 2 Bond (Wayne) 14 Weickert (Tiffin Columbian) 3 Freday(Hoover) 15 Krakora (Midpark) 4 Miocic (Eastlake North) 16 Lipovsky (Barberton) 5 Findley (Moeller) 17 Foltz (Greenville) 6 Becker (Dover) 18 Legg (Fremont Ross) 7 Hamm (Olentangy) 19 Wegley (Tecumseh) 8 Bendau (Mayfield) 20 Slaven (Lebanon) 9 Mills (Mentor) 21 Caponi (Uniontown Lake) 10 Spreng (Mt. Vernon) 22 Karst (Westerville North) 11 Epps (Glen Este) 23 Ritzenthaler (Kilbourne) 12 Katafiasz (Sylvania Northview) 24 Barentine (West Carrollton) 13 Koz (St. Edward) 25 Butler (Shaker Hts.)
With Miller apparently committed to 215 pounds, this creates a four-way struggle for the top spot with Miller and Bonds a half-step ahead of Miocic and Freday. The top pair have already met three times this year with Bonds winning at Reno in a 30-second fall, a move which apparently injured Miller. However, at both the Ohio Duals and the Top Gun, Miller capitalized on superior athleticism to win. Bond appears to be the bigger of the two boys, but Miller has incredible quickness and determination. Last year he split a pair of bouts with Lammers at 189 pounds, his loss coming in the State semifinals by a 3-2 margin. He ended up third after winning a close tie breaker over Freday in the consolation semifinals. Bond was fifth last year, coming on very strong in the last half of the season. He defeated Miocic 3-1 in overtime in the State placement bout. He also finished ahead of him at the Top Gun.
Miocic is a splendid looking athlete -- tall and rangy -- with a lot of upside potential. He was the champion at the Ironman and Brecksville, but lost 7-6 to Division II State champ Pentorn at North Canton and to Bonds at the Top Gun. Freday was, like Bond, fifth last year in the State meet with two very hard fought losses. He defeated Pentorn in overtime in the North Canton finals, but was fifth at the Top Gun.
While this is a strong quartet, there are some wild cards as well at each of the district sites who have upset potential. People like Mills, Hamm and Findley will be discussed below, but they could well be significant factors in the resolution of this weight class.
An interesting point is that all four of this quartet should be district champs. This would set up pairings that would be ideal, all four scheduled to meet in the semifinal round. Since only Miller finished in the top three last year, no seeding issues would come into play, so the match ups would be generated strictly by random chance.
Miller will face little serious opposition at Darby. State qualifier Katafiasz returns, but Miller defeated him 19-4 last year. Spreng is also solid, but neither he nor Weickert threaten Miller. Spreng has been solid in the Columbus area, while Weickert won at Tiffin and Sperrysburg and was third at Kilbourne. An unexpected challenger could be Hamm who certified at 215 pounds. Last year he finished third in the district, and then won two State heavyweight bouts beating both Seng an Christopfel. After that it was difficult, but sixth place was a wonderful achievement. I think the drop to 215 pounds is smart since there so many large, very accomplished heavyweights this year. I have no idea how Hamm will do at this class and this rating is pure conjecture.
Bond is the only returning State qualifier at Fairfield, but he will face some good competition. Findley missed Columbus by one point last year, and has won the SWOCA and CIT this year. Epps has four losses to Findley the past couple years, but it's getting very close. Last year Findley pinned him at the district, but it was only 5-4 at the SWOCA. Fultz and the pinning machine Wegley are next best, but there will be no shortage of other contenders. Still it would seem Bond should win here, but I'm guessing he'll have a least one close match. Also, watch out for the freshman Barrentine who has had some great results for a 9th grader.
Freday was a district runner-up last year losing a close bout to DeVitis, who he then defeated handily in the State bout for fifth place. This year at 215 pounds, Freday has had a busy schedule. At North Canton he pinned Krakora and then beat Division II State champ Pentorn in overtime to take the title. However, at the Top Gun he placed fifth in a star-studded field. Becker was fourth at the Top Gun and he and Freday are the big guns at the Perry District. Last year in Division II at 189 pounds Becker was a district runner-up, and won a State bout before losing to eventual champ Pentorn. The third spot is totally wide open.
Miocic has tremendous future potential. He reminds me a little bit of a young Rich Frimel -- when he was still skinny and going for the heavyweight title. Miocic won a very ordinary Mentor District last year and won his first-round match up at Columbus. However, he was then pinned by excellent Matt Salsberry, who was to die tragically just a few months later in an automobile accident. He then won a consolation bout before losing to Bond in overtime in his State placement bout. He pinned Becker for third at the Top Gun, losing to either Bond or Miller in the semifinals. With the right draw, he could be a finalist. Mills is currently injured, but I'm assuming he'll be back for sectionals. He was first at the Midwest Classic, and lost to Miocic in overtime at Brecksville ending up a strong third. Bendau is a great freshman who looks deceivingly easy to beat. However, one mistake and it's all over as witnessed by a third place at Wadsworth, first place at Hudson, a runner-up trophy at the WRC. Right with him is another freshman, the stocky Koz who was second at both the Ironman (6-2 to Miocic) and the Medina. When is the last time you can remember two freshmen ranked at this weight class, let alone three. It would be fascinating to have a round-robin between the three of them.
Projected Champion: Alex Stepanovich (Berea)
Top Contenders 2 Piccirillo (Mayfield) 14 Shannon (Midpark) 3 Howell (Garfield Hts.) 15 Stone (Cuyahoga Falls) 4 Christopfel (Elder) 16 Seng (Findlay) 5 Padilla (Wayne) 17 Reveal (Groveport Madison) 6 Ramsey (Fairfield) 18 Ardo (Stow) 7 Olds (Coffman) 19 Redman (East Liverpool) 8 Hyams (Sycamore) 20 Gintz (Dover) 9 Irving (Mansfield) 21 Bossie (Maple Hts.) 10 Kennedy (Cincinnati Northwest) 22 Noth (LaSalle) 11 Burtscher (Toledo Central Catholic) 23 Mercurio (Toledo St. Francis) 12 Tatman (Solon) 24 Bevington (Mt. Vernon) 13 Leckrone (Fairmont) 25 Rogers (Logan)
Stepwise multiple regression is a powerful (but sometimes overused) statistical tool that attempts to explain variation in the dependent variable by fluctuations in a series of independent variables. An example might be examining a pitcher's ERA as the dependent variable and using number of strikeouts, hits allowed, base on balls, etc., as the independent variables. One can then generate an equation (or model) that allows an analyst to enter the independent variables and generate a forecast of likely ERA. In the real world no model can explain all the variation in the dependent variable; there is always some random variation that is unexplainable. In stepwise regression the key is to eliminate those variables that add little to explaining the dependent variable or that measure the same effect as another variable -- multicolinearity. If we were able to construct such a model for each weight class, there is no doubt in my mind that the model that would be least successful would be at the heavyweight classification. There are just too many random, unexplainable variables at that weight class. That is also why the "best" wrestler at heavyweight wins less often than at other weight classes.
A case in point is last year's State finals. Stepanovich (having overcome the challenges of Davie, Piccirillo, Thomas and Miller) was a huge favorite over Bowers who had won neither a sectional nor district title, and who needed a last minute five points to defeat Thomas who had dominated their bout to that point. Nobody thought it would last long, and they were right. Bowers pinned Stepanovich in 62 seconds. So while Stepanovich and the top group would seem to have a lock on the title, you just never know.
Stepanovich ended up 38-2, his only other loss in a 30-second overtime with Piccirillo, 2-1. This year he has been awesome with size, strength and tremendous quickness. He was ranked third in the nation for high school offensive linemen and that athleticism is a huge part of his arsenal. He hasn't had a close bout so far, and he should dominate the Perry District. Behind him will be six wrestlers looking at two qualifying opportunities. Shannon has come up "big" this year, while Stone has also been outstanding. State qualifier Ardo needs to push it the next six weeks, or he may be left behind this year. I like both Redman and Gintz, and both have good chances to be a qualifier. Adamcyzk (Strongsville) also cannot be overlooked in this contest.
Piccirillo was a 215 pounds wrestler early last year, but he is now right at the limit. As discussed, he defeated Stepanovich last year, but lost twice to current CSU heavyweight Russ Davie (6-5 OT, 7-3) to finish fourth at Columbus. This year he is 18-0 with 15 pins including wins at DeSales, Hudson, Wadsworth and the WRC. I don't think he has quite the quickness of a Stepanovich ,but he seems every bit as strong. With him at Mentor is the redoubtable Howell, who is also undefeated and won the Brecksville with four falls and a decision over the excellent Division II heavyweight Chris Hart. He, too, is right at the heavyweight limit and I'm not at all sure how he and Piccirillo will match up. Tatman and Bossie will then battle for the last spot at Mentor.
Olds look like by far the best heavyweight at Darby. A 250 pound boy with great mobility, his only loss was to Division III pick Blake Lingruen. He has won titles at Perrysburg, Coffman, and Upper Arlington. He was a non-factor last year, falling to place at sectional, but that has changed. State qualifier Irving is undefeated winning the Gorman, the Marion Harding and the Coke Classic. He has good placement potential, but will need to be more active to beat the really good big men. Burtscher is also at or near the heavyweight limit and should qualify for Columbus. Seng went to Columbus last year having wrestled a total of 12 bouts including sectional and district action. He won two bouts and was blanked by Piccirillo 5-0 in his State placement bout. I may again be underestimating him. Not rated, but a possible factor, is Cesare Gray (Marion Harding) who lost to Irving by a single point at Marion Harding.
There will be great action at Fairfield. State qualifier Christopfel won at the SWOCA and he is also the defending district champion. A huge heavyweight, he must face the challenge of the equally large Padilla, who has made a quantum jump this past season. Two-time State qualifier Ramsey may end ahead of both of them despite a third place finish at the SWOCA and a surprisingly large 6-1 loss to Valvoda at Kenston. Hyams and Kennedy both have the size and speed to do very well and are top ten material, giving Fairfield half of my top ten choices. All of them are over 260 pounds. Leckrone, Noth, Rogers and Rosing (St. Xavier) all have upset potential and almost certainly one of them will elbow out one of my top five, if only because of the mechanics of the pairings process.
1. St. Edward -- While Walsh may be the team of the decade, there is no question in my mind that Greg Urbas is the coach of the decade. When legendary coach Howard Ferguson died and a no-name coach was promoted from within, everybody figured the great St. Ed's program would rapidly decline. Now 10 years later, the program is as strong as ever under a leader who deflects credit to others while outworking everyone. They should open the new century as they closed the last one, by winning yet another State title. The senior core of Bertin, Jayne and Lenhard is brilliant, but there is lots of back-up firepower. Lang, Moos, Mann, Dunstan, Leabu, Schweda and Hallahan all have placement opportunities.
2. Wayne -- Lammers, Ott and Bond should score 75 points and that alone is close to a runner-up finish. Add in possible points from the mammoth Padilla, Kaney, Burke and McDaniel and they'll just edge out Maple Hts. for second place.
3. Maple Hts. -- Potentially, they could score almost as heavily as St. Edward, and at least 20 points more than Wayne. Still, they have the most uncertainties of the top three teams. However, if everything goes right, Phillips, Magistrelli and Pflug win and Cundall, Costello and Hasenohrl place, they could have St. Ed's looking over their shoulder.
4. Moeller -- An excellent dual meet team, they also have six to eight possible State scorers. The heart of the team is the four middleweights (the two Zinkans, Lyons and Blanks), but the upper weight trio of Lukens, Cronin and Findley could also help. If Candy and Hill pitch in we're talking a possible runner-up finish.
5. Mansfield Madison -- They don't have the depth of the top quartet of teams, but they have some great individual firepower. The core elements are the two Yetzers, both of whom could be finalists. Stevens has been great lately and could place, and if Eiklor can compete, that's a few more points. The questions is who else can help?
6. Fairfield -- Always an excellent team, they have lots of opportunities to score and that five-man district qualifier is a big plus for them. The quartet of Leugers, Ramsey, Padgett and Wahoff is excellent, while Reuter, Doxsey, Wilkens and Salyer can help. If they have a perfect weekend, they're in the top three.
7. Wadsworth -- The three wrestlers named Kallai in the middle of their line up should be worth about 50 points. All three (Zak, Chris and Matt) have strong placement potential. If Zak can wrestle at States like he does at the Top Gun, he can win it all. Klaus is good, but he is at a murderous district weight class, while Lansley or Riley might help at the lower weights.
8. Lakota West -- A team that could surprise many onlookers this year. Matt McIntyre is excellent while brother Chris, now at the right weight class, can score. Willen and Wolery are possibilities at the low weight classes, but they need the freshman Flake to step up.
9. Carroll -- DiSalvo is excellent at 119 pounds, but will probably have to defeat both Pflug and Lenhard to win a State title. Stevens and Clemens both have placement potential, while the sophomore Terbay looked good at Medina. They'll have to hit on all cylinders to stay in the top ten.
10. Mayfield -- The last three weight classes are where they shine with Piccirillo, Delguyd and the freshman Bendau. They have an excellent dual meet team, but many of the lower weights look like district fifth and sixth placers, just not quite strong enough to qualify. The freshman Pietropinto and Herrara are possible exceptions and can help build team momentum at Mentor.
You can contact me at John@Ohiowrestler.com
