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2001

HIGH SCHOOL WRESTLING

FORECAST

(30th Annual Edition)

Written By:
Brian Brakeman

Copyright 2001, Reproduction of this material for profit without written consent is prohibited.

DIVISION I

103 #

 Projected Champion:  Nino Paglia (Strongsville)

 Top Contenders 

Very often in state competition the weight classes with the fewest returning qualifiers are 103 pounds and heavyweight.  The latter because of the general dominance of experienced, mature seniors and the former because it is the first stop for freshman and sophomores who quickly outgrow it.  In many years at 103#, I struggle identifying appropriate contenders and a potential champion.  However, in 2001, that general rule has been turned upside down.  There are nine wrestlers with state experience at 103#--.the most in any weight class.  So, that the task is not identifying contenders, but in sifting through such an abundance.  In addition, as a further complication, there are at least four other contenders with no previous state experience who have moved into the forefront at this weight class.

Despite this abundance of talent the top choice is relatively straightforward.  Paglia,at 103#, has been totally dominating.  At Brecksville he crushed Wornoff 13-5 in the final after earlier defeating LaScala, 12-4.  At Mayfield he destroyed a good field, and he comes off a freshman year which saw him win a district title and finish 5^th in the state.  Even that might have been a disappointment as he lost to eventual finalist Cundall 5-3 in overtime and barely to Vickers in the consolations.  The real issue is whether, he will be able to wrestle at peak efficiency when having to make weight three weeks in a row.  It’s a tough cut for Paglia and he will have to control it so that he is not undone by the weight.

The Perry District has four outstanding 103’s. five if you count Riggs backup Johnstone.  all of, whom could place.  Riggs is very impressive.  He hammered Candy at the Ohio Duals and beat Division III choice Wade at the Ironman.  He shares the weight issue with Paglia.  Riggs is tall and it is a rugged path to 103 pounds.  Johnstone (Massillon Perry) has to be the best back-up in the state.  I watched him pin Feldman and he was 3^rd at the Top Gun losing only to the champ from Erie Cathedral Prep. Wornoff was 2^nd at Hudson, Brecksville and the Dies as he has forged a strong consistent season.  He has wins over Riggs, LaFollette, and Federico among others.  LaFollette is clearly fourth best, but with Paglia and Wornoff exiting the same sectional the pairings could be unbalanced.  That would give Spellacy, LaScala, or, maybe, Wise (Wadsworth) an opportunity.  Keep an eye on Spellacy who was a district semi-finalist last year, but has not yet matched that effort this year.  He can spring the big upset.

In many circles Gilsdorf is rated the favorite at this weight class.  After all , he was 4^th last year with four consolation wins and he has been perfect this season  with wins at Tiffin and Waite.  He’s an attractive choice, but I still think Paglia is better.  Mentor has six legitimate state possibilities, but the most unpredictable may be Federico.  He blasted Watson to win at the Midwest Classic, but lost heart-thumpers to Wornoff and LaFollette at Brecksville - - his only defeats.  He has a big upside.  Metcalfe, son of the great 1972 state champ, Jerry, is a little dynamo.  He and state qualifier Zychowicz both certified at 103#, but I believe Metcalfe will wrestle at this weight.  He beat Wornoff to win at Hudson and will challenge anyone I’ve listed.  State qualifier Weaver is probably fourth best at Mentor in what will be a real struggle for qualification.  Both McClain and Felton have had excellent seasons, but unless they can trip up one of the Toledo 103’s, they’ll be left at home.

State qualifier Ondecko has had an undefeated season winning at Upper Arlington, Ready, Sylvania Southview and Toledo Central Catholic.  He won one state bout last year, and held Paglia to a 1-0 margin in the consolation round.  The rest of the contenders here are a little suspect.  While they’ve had success in their own area they have received rough treatment in state-wide events.  I’ve listed Feldman, Iovine, Belcher and Mossar, but they’re likely to struggle at the Schottenstein.  OVAC champ Bates is also here and he has the firepower to qualify.

There is much the same situation at Fairfield.  State qualifiers Candy, J. Smith, Ocasio, and Watson all have substantial experience, but whether that will translate into wins at Columbus is open to question.  Candy, nominally the best in the Cincinnati  area (he was 2^nd at the SWOCA) lost big to Riggs,  and Watson, probably the best in Dayton had the same result with Federico.  I think this district will be extremely spirited, but the qualifiers  will have to move it up a level to compete the following week.

112 #

Projected Champion:  Mark Moos (St. Edward)

Top Contenders

An important use of statistics is testing hypotheses in a rigorous, mathematical manner.  Clearly there are two kinds of errors that can be made--  accepting the null hypothesis when in fact it is false (alpha error) and rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true (beta error).  In may cases statisticians test at the 95% (two standard deviation) confidence level to minimize the alpha error.  Each year I identify wrestlers that I believe are two standard deviation choices (95% certain) to win their weight class.  In most years there are at least three or four competitors in Division I that fall into that classification. For example, last year Ott, Jayne, Percival, Lammers, and Bertin would have been in that category, and they definitely help my accuracy percentages.  This year there is only one wrestler that fits into that 95% classification and that is the brilliant ,junior, Mark Moos.

Moos is probably the best junior lightweight in the country after winning at the Ironman, Beast of the East, Powerade, and Mayfield.  He has dominated every opponent and should capture his first state title with relative ease.    In fact, Moos could conceivably have been on track for four state titles were it not for Kyle Ott.  As a freshman, Ott defeated Moos 4-1 in the semi-finals and then dominated Pflug in the finals, and then last year Ott came off three technical falls to beat Moos in the finals 5-2. If you want to see the consumnate wrestler watch Moos as he coolly, methodically dismantles foe after foe.

This may be the most unbalanced weight class I have ever seen.  In a perfectly just world at least eight of the sixteen qualifiers should come out of the Perry District.  In fact, six of my Top Ten choices will wrestle at Perry, meaning that two will not make it out.  The best, I believe, is the outstanding freshman, Steve Luke who is an absolutely exceptional prospect.  After a 5^th at the Ironman (nerves?) he won decisively at Brecksville over a field that included Randazzo, Costello, Passafiume, Murray and Mantini.  The only issue might be his inexperience.  Phillips was a state semi-finalist  last year, and has lost only once this year, by one point,  to a Pennsylvania state runner-up.  He is difficult to score against.  Costello qualified for Columbus two years ago as a back-up 112-pounder, but didn’t make it last year—losing to Moes and Pollock and ending up 4^th.  At  Brecksville he lost in the first round to Luke and then came back with seven straight wins including a fall over Randazzo for 3^rd.  That still leaves state qualifier Passafiume and State Division II 3^rd place medalist, Ricky Randazzo-- both of whom would surely be finalists at the other three districts.  In addition, Meissner, a district semi-finalist in 2000,  has dropped from 125# to 112# while Murray and Camburn (another district semi-finalist last year) are in for a tough time.  Not only that, but Schmock (Berea) was a strong 4^th  at the Top Gun losing only to Luke and Zupancic while Kee beat Murray in placing at Brecksville.  The match-ups at the district will be brutal starting in the very first round.

There’s not much beyond Moos at Mentor.  Zychowicz was a state qualifier at 103# last year and should get out at 112 - - perhaps as a finalist.  Mantini and Selover are good performers while Fulton, Ash (Start) Fluker (Lorain Southview) and DeJesus (Admiral King) are other possibilities.  Actually the second best 112-pounder at Mentor should have been state alternate Paz (Eastlake North).  A very tough kid he apparently moved to Nevada - - which is even further west than this district extends..

There is pretty much mass confusion at Darby.  In fact the two I’ve rated highest have not yet competed at this weight - - Cunningham because he has been at 119# all year and Edminster, because of a pre-season injury.  Clearly, this is bit of a stretch, but the incumbents have not been overly impressive.  Brown, currently rated #1 in the Columbus area , was 4^th at Kenston losing twice to Bryan Hurley 13-0 and 10-0.

Kyle Puckett wrestled up at 119# last year while brother Kevin went to state  at 112#.  This year at the more normal 112# he has doubled up winning the SWOCA (by fall over Cottone) and the GMVWA (by decision over Browning).  That would seem to elevate him to the top step in this district, and provide state placement chances.  Cottone, Luce and Spencely lead a legion of other possible qualifiers by a very narrow margin.  Goodman and Schaffer have far better records than Cottone or Spencely, but the former finished behind them at the SWOCA while latter wrestles an easier schedule.

119 #

Projected Champion:  John Foster (Massillon Perry)

Top Contenders

Initially this was going to be one of the easiest weight classes in Division I to forecast correctly.  After all, the expectation was that the brilliant two-time state champion, Kyle Ott, would cruise to his third state title at 119#. However, six summer knee surgeries, conflict with the Wayne medical staff and administration and an eventual transfer to

St. Paris Graham has dispatched Ott to Division II competition.  What remains is a weight class in disarray with only two returning state placers (and one of those from Division III).  It should provide substantial opportunity for the many experienced performers returning at this weight class to improve on their past results, and for some of the excess 112’s at Perry.  In the end you’d have to conclude that this is the weakest weight class in Division

As a sidebar I’ve correctly predicted the first three winners in Division I for the past four years.  Ott’s defection substantially lessens the probability of increasing that total to five consecutive years with both 103# and now 119# lacking definitive favorites.  Still at both of these classes the competition should be sharp and appealing.

Last year John Foster was kind of my mystery man.  He was hidden away at tiny Dalton High School where he compiled an enormous string of consecutive falls.  He was quickly a Division III sectional champ and then district champ entering the state meet at 38-0.  Then ahead in the first round, he was pinned with 15 seconds remaining.  He quickly won five more bouts to finish 3^rd and cap a wonderful freshman season.  This year, now that his brother has graduated, he’s at Massillon Perry. Early in the year he was at 125# where he finished 5^th (losing to Lang) and 2^nd at Brecksville (losing to  Bosley from Parkersburg).  However, he has been devastating at 119#, and must be accorded the favorite role.

Foster should dominate the Perry district.  No other wrestlers have had state experience and none come close to his credentials.  Basso was a district semi-finalist last year and ended up as a fourth place state alternate.  He was 3^rd at Wadsworth, this year.  Gross has had a solid campaign, but still has not yet made a finals bout.  He could do it at this district.  Effner is an excellent freshman who I may have rated too low.  He was impressive at Brecksville, and seems absolutely fearless.  I really like Colello, and again, he should probably get up a few notches.  He lost to  Jaggers, 5-4 and easily won the WRC.  Watch for him.  Stellato (Boardman) and Spencer (Maple Hts.) are other thoughts.

There is a lot of heavy artillery at Mentor - - at least in the context of this weight class.  State qualifier Pollock  has had a bit of slow start, but he can be very good.  I think he has finalist potential with the right bracketing and attitude.   Mendez lost to McKirnan in the first round at States  and then finished 6^th at this class last year.  He’s involved in a lot of high scoring bouts that keep fans breathless and coaches gray.  Lakia, another state qualifier is very smooth, but may not have the horsepower to go with the very best.  That leave McKirnan with a tenous hold on the fourth berth with Sylvania champ Guerra right behind.  A dark horse here is Aggozzino who has not wrestled much against Ohio competition, but who upset Jaggers at Mayfield and was perfect at the Ohio Duals  (three tech fall shutouts).  He can turn people which erases a lot of mistakes.  Evans is a state qualifier from several years ago while Rose is rated first in the Toledo area.  They’ll have to be very sharp to qualify.  A long-shot here is Thomas who will be a very dangerous opponent.

Hansen is already a two-time state qualifier, but has not fared well at the State Meet.  He is 0-4 at that event outscored by a margin of 54-12.  Of course it hasn’t helped

that he met Lenhard and then Pflug in the first round.  As a potential district champ, he should drastically improve on those draws.  He was 6^th at 125# at Medina, but won at Toledo Central Catholic, never having to go six minutes in any of his five bouts.  Rieman was 3^rd at Waite nipping Guerra, 2-1, and should be in the hunt for a qualifying berth.   Biglar and Bishop are possibly next best, but I’m thinking there’ll be at least one surprise qualifier.

There are boatloads of contenders at Fairfield, and it is very difficult to sort them out.  Kist was a state qualifier at 125# last year.  After starting the season at that weight he finished 4^th at the SWOCA , and shortly thereafter moved down.  He will be a very large 119-pounder.  State qualifier Sebourn has been in and out of the line-up, but when he is hitting on all cylinders he is very tough.  Alban was 2^nd at the GMVWA to Guerra, but I think he’ll better that result if there’s a next time.  SWOCA champ Gray, the tough McCoy, and state qualifier  Loebker should also be in the mix for a qualifying spot.

All three could upset those rated above them at this district.  Jaynes has been out of action for some time but this former state qualifier can wrestle.  I would rate him much higher if I though he was healthy and in good form. Also potential qualifiers are Gill (Loveland), Kunkel (Colerain), Hahn (Fairfield) and Sellers (St. Xavier).

125 #

 Projected Champion:  Ryan Lang (St. Edward)

Top Contenders

I’m always amused by incongruities and anomalies and by things that lie askew of normality things like bumper stickers that proclaim “honk if you love peace and quiet “ and by ideas like “time is natures way of stopping things from happening all at once” that point to subtle truths.  If you’re like me in this respect than 125# should be a weight class we’ll both enjoy.  Where else will you find a bracket sheet whose key match-up may well feature last year’s 103# state champ versus last year’s 130# placer?  Where else will we have returning state qualifiers from five different weight classes and contenders that run the gamut from A (Alexiou) to Z (Zinkan)? It should be interesting as we look at the skills of three state placers and at least seven returning state qualifiers.

I think there’s a slight, but definite gap separating my top trio from the six contenders directly below them.  That’s not to label the top three upset-proof, but to suggest that, generally, they should come out on top in such battles.  My choice among that top triad is the amazing sophomore Ryan Lang.  Last year he finished 37-2 (both losses outside of Ohio) with a state title at 103# - - defeating seniors in the last two rounds. His coolness under fire won him the title.  For example, in the third period of his tied semi-final bout, Nate Vickers struck with a beautiful takedown attempt.

For nearly 30 seconds, Lang appeared to be seconds from losing the two crucial points, but always moving, he skirted disaster and almost miraculously wound up on top. That was the bout and yet, you know that against 99 out of a 100 wrestlers, Vickers gets that takedown.  This year Lang is up three weight classes, and has been very successful.  His only in-state loss was to my Division II choice Wooten who over-powered him the first week of the season.

Zinkan was 5^th at 130# last year, losing two close 3-1 bouts to Spires and Tepley.  He won the SWOCA at 130#, but shortly thereafter moved to 125#.  He crushed the field at the CIT, but the interesting bout was with Lang at the Ohio Duals.  In both the first and third periods, Zinkan had great takedown shots, but, again, Lang, somehow, staved him off.  You wonder how many such minor miracles he has given to him before he gets caught.  In the second period, Lang rode him out and got a turn as well.  So the final score was 4-0 for Lang - - but if Zinkan scores early it’s a different bout.

Enright came on in the second half of last season with an amazing rush. By state tourney time I thought he might be a finalist.  However, when the pairings came out with Ott and Moos in opposite brackets that was no longer possible.  Still he maxed out with a 3^rd place finish at 112#.  Now a junior he was 3^rd at Medina losing to Wooten (but not as badly as Lang) and winning everything else.  I think there is a chance he could overpower Lang and out-quick Zinkan.  We’ll see.  He and Lang should be apart so Zinkan would have to beat them both to win.

The strongest district is at Fairfield.  State qualifiers Wolery, Wolf, and Maxwell join Zinkan in what should be a great competition.  I’ve rated Wolf second best here based on his win over Wolery and on a better overall record than Maxwell.  He missed placement by one bout last year.  Wolery and Glavan split two bouts at Brecksville with Glavan winning in the championship round by two and Wolery taking 3^rd on tie breaker.  They are obviously, very evenly matched.  Should the pairings be bad Mason-Strauss is a good candidate to get a berth with Breiner and Mattheis other considerations.

Enright should have no trouble at Darby.  This is not a particularly strong year in the        Central District for Division I teams.  My view is that at many weight classes there isn’t a lot of depth - - and this is one of them.  After Enright, most of the possible qualifiers would struggle at any of the other three district sites.

Lang’s biggest obstacle at Mentor is the experienced Glavan.  He was a state alternate last year at 119# losing a tough semi-final bout to Lenhard, and ending up 4^th.  Cook, Pietropinto and, perhaps, Perle (Madison) are next best in the Northeast District.  However, there is mass confusion in the Toledo area.  I‘ve listed Hill, Bellman and Frederickson, but that is based on incomplete results.  You could also easily factor in Vargas (Waite), Lewis (Clay) and Rivera (Libbey).  They keep trading wins so that no definitive pattern is emerging.

State qualifier Thompson is an aggressive wrestler with lots of speed.  He was a Perry District champ at 119# last year defeating Hewitt 19-10.  Then after a 1-1 start at Columbus he lost an overtime bout to Hewitt in the second consolation round.  This year he was a champion at the Dies and was 5^th at Medina losing to Opfer and Blunk.  Januszewski is a solid second choice with good placement potential.  He was 2^nd at Mayfield losing only to Lang and 5^th at Medina (at 130#) losing only to Schlatter and Tepley.  After this duo this district is substantially weaker.

 130 #

Projected Champion:  Joe Pflug (Maple Hts.)

Top Contenders

There are five returning state placers competing at this weight - - the most of any class - - and they all have finalist potential. Lets look at each in a little more detail.

Of the top quintet Joe Pflug, now, a junior, has the best credentials and, perhaps, the most ability.  In both his freshman and sophomore season he opened with 36 consecutive victories and then lost his state finals bout--once to three- time champ Lenhard and once to probable, three-time champ Ott.  That is a marvelous record generated by Pflug’s incredible quickness and ability to counter.  This year he won at Franklin Hts, but was 2^nd at Brecksville defeating Tepley in a tough semi-final before losing to Schlatter by four in the finals.  The only negative with Pflug is his unwillingness to initiate aggressive takedown attempts against topnotch competition.

In his state finals bout with Lenhard last year (who he defeated at Mentor) he surrendered an early takedown, and did not pursue an aggressive course that might have resulted in a takedown or generated stalling calls.  Instead he stayed in his stance waiting to capitalize on a poor Lenhard shot.  Again, at Brecksville I did not see the level of aggressiveness against Tepley that could have made a nail-biter into a more decisive win.

Herrera was a strong and, perhaps, surprising 4^th last year including a brilliant run at Columbus.  A district third place winner he cruised into the semi-finals against the undefeated Smith.  There in a titanic struggle marred by some bizarre officiating he battled into the sudden death overtime losing, on of all things, a penalty point for false starts.  I thought he had out-wrestled Smith.  He came back to claim 4^th.  This year he won at Wadsworth and the WRC and was 3^rd as Mayfield and the Top Gun.  He is a persistent, mentally tough competitor who is especially good with a lead.

Tepley, tall and slender, was also 4^th last year losing to the excellent West in the first round and then winning four consolation bouts before again losing to West in the consolation finals.  He was 4^th at Brecksville losing by a point to Pflug and by criteria to Ducher.  He is a consumnate defensive wrestler with solid riding skills.  He could win it all, like Spires last year, by winning a succession of close low-scoring bouts.

Spatola is very tall and has a boatload of experience.  He was 5^th as a freshman at 103# and then 4^th his sophomore year at 119#.  Last year, plagued by injury, he was forced to default two bouts at the Southwest District and did not qualify.  This year he was champion at the GMVMA and 2nd at the SWOCA losing to Zinkan as his last second takedown bid that meant the title was fended off.  He was also 2^nd at the CIT losing to the brilliant Schlatter.  He can score and has a higher proportion of pins than the others.

Vondruska was the huge surprise last year at 135#.  He entered district action with 14 losses,  but put up three solid wins to make the finals where he lost to eventual state runner-up Vince DiGiovanni in overtime.  Then at the State Meet he beat both Baria and Dysart in overtime, before falling to 6^th place.  This year at 130# he was 3^rd at the Ironman and Powerade looking solid at both events.  Very disciplined, he is especially dangerous if he can keep it close early on.

I think this is the year that Joe Pflug wins his first state title.  It appears that recently it has been recognized that Pflug can and needs to be more aggressive in big matches.  At Mayfield, he twice took Schlaatter down with offensive moves, and, in fact, was the slightly more aggressive boy.  They both had two takedowns in the 7-6 Schlatter win, but Pflug might have had more shots.  It was a great bout and confirmed many of our suspicions that an aggressive Pflug is a superior product.

At Perry, both Pflug and Tepley could be challenged by the very solid Ducher - - who beat Tepley for 3^rd at Brecksville after a strange loss to Flake.  Walters, up from 125#, Link and White would be co-favorites for the last berth.

Spatola faces a crowded field at Fairfield, but he is a clear step ahead of all of them.  State qualifier Reiter, the erratic Flake, and Cox look to be next best.  This would seem  to be a wide-open competition with Spatola dominating at the top, but a lot of activity and surprises in other parts of the bracket.

I think very highly of Doucher who has had an excellent season except for the Sunday of the Ohio Duals.  Even then, he defeated Reiter, 9-3, before losing to Pierce and Walters.  I’m ignoring it and assuming he’ll be in the hunt for a place at Columbus.  A Ducher – Doucher match-up there would certainly stress the public address announcer.  Varner won at Solon and was a strong 2^nd at the OVAC, while Williamson, Ringle and Hess have been solid, if unspectacular, in their own locale.  Graham (Marion Franklin) is just now starting to compete, and could be a factor in this district.

The Mentor District is not particularly strong at this weight class.  We’ve already discussed Vondruska who would seem to be the premier player here.  The big unknown is Harris who won two district bouts last year at 130# - - including a win over Doucher.  He was a titlist at Woodward, but does not wrestle a real strong schedule. The enigmatic Jones is another mystery, which, I expect, will be resolved at this district.

135 #

 Projected Champion:  Matt McIntire (Lakota West)

Top Contenders

On the surface this would appear to be a two-man competition although there are several wrestlers on the periphery of challenging the top duo.  The favorite has to be the junior dynamo from Lakota West, state runner-up Matt McIntyre.  Last year he was 38-0 entering the state meet and then added three more victories before losing a 3-1 finals bout to the defensive specialist Spires   McIntyre wrestles six in-your-face minutes and is again undefeated this year - - including a win over Division II champ Jason Barnett.  The only way to beat him in my judgment is to make it a one-move match (if you can) and hope for the best.  In a contest with lots of scoring I think McIntyre is unbeatable.

West has had a brilliant high school career finishing 6^th, 4^th and 3^rd the last three years, but never quite reaching the finals.  He now has a career record of 144-12, but may still be searching for the right weight class this year.  He has been at 130#, and 140#, but I think right here is the best fit.  Both 130# and 140# are crowded with contenders while 135#, at least for now, is strangely empty.  Better yet, he has split two bouts with McIntyre (in 1999) and they exit the same district so that  he would not see him until the finals.  This year, West has won four title - - Ironman, GMVWA, CIT and Carroll—while finishing 3^rd at Medina and he also holds a victory over Barnett.  He seems very ready in this, his last attempt at a state title.

McIntyre and West isn’t all there is at Fairfield.  Baria wrestled up a weight class last year, but he is a hard working guy.  He qualified for Columbus, and then after a first round loss, worked his way back to 4^th place at `135#.  This year he has been one of the team’s steadiest performers.  He approaches every bout with a hard-nosed attitude that gives warning of his determination.  He was 4^th at the CIT losing to Division II and Division III projected champs Barnett and Hurley, and beat Kovach, Pierce and Evans at the Ohio Duals.  After him there is a substantial drop-off back to Stehlin, Carraher and Spence.  

There will be some good competition at Darby.  Moore was 5^th at 112# two years ago, but missed placement last year by one win.  He was 5^th at Medina in what was a blockbuster field that included Hurley, Smith, West, and Finneran.  He has wrestled at 140# part of the year, but this will be a perfect fit.  State qualifiers Evans and Bookman also return and have performed well this year.  Bookman lost a one-pointer to Baria last year.  Both of these boys could scramble to a low place.  Springer is probably the best bet for the fourth berth but Elliott, Crumbley, and Gibson (Westerville North) will be challengers.  Smith (Chillicothe) could be a factor here, although he may compete at 130#.

The Perry district is again, very strong.  Kovach was a district champion and state qualifier as a freshman 130-pounder and after an opening win he lost twice to Zinkan and Salyers.  He was 3^rd at Brecksville defeating Allen in overtime.  Allen was 4^th at Brecksville and 2^nd at Mayfield - - losing to Barnett for a second time.  Allen was 5^th at Ironman where he upset Moore earlier in that tourney.

State qualifier McGee and Sandquist are also strong with the latter seeming on the verge of real success.  Somehow, though, he always seems to lose that unexpected early bout.  A dark-horse contender will be Deonte Penn.  Since he moved down to 135 pounds he has been dominating opponents.  He should be a sectional champ providing good district bracket position.  He could be a surprise

The Mentor District is the toughest to analyze.  It has two sectionals from the Northeast District melded in with two from the Northwest.  This is the initial year for this arrangement so there is no past history.  Even worse, there has not been much competition between the Toledo and Cleveland schools so that direct comparisons or even common opponent analysis is not available.  Okay, that’s enough excuses for now.  This is by far the weakest district at this weight class.  There are no returning state qualifiers, and no one here has a large probability of placing.  Morris and Pierce might be the best, but then again, maybe not.  Two to watch closely are Beach (just down from 140#) and Felton (lots of upside potential).

140 #

Projected Champion:  Jason Bake (Massillon Jackson)

Top Contenders 

Its 2:00a.m.as I write this, and as I ponder what still must be done I’m reminded of Egon’s reply to Dr. Vinkman in “Ghostbusters” as they spot the Sta-Puff Marshmallow Man.  “I’m terrified beyond the capacity for rational thought”.  But then you long-time readers knew that anyway.

The first six wrestlers at this weight class are, as a group, as good as any in this year’s 42 weight classes.  The winner here will have surmounted exceptional obstacles to claim the crown, and a smidgen of good fortune may be an essential ingredient in reaching that end.  I’ve selected the winner here eight of the last nine years missing only in 1996 when my choice was 2^nd.

Jason Bake had a special season last year.  After losing to Percival in Ironman finals during the opening week, he won 26 consecutive bouts to take home a state title.  Most of his wins were by big scores ad he pinned DiGiovanni in the finals. This year he seems intent on repeating that process having lost in the Ironman finals, and, then again, having gone undefeated.  This year, however, the competition will be much tougher and, Bake will be much more severely challenged.  Remember DiGiovanni took Bake down twice in the first period and was ahead when he got caught.  With experienced challengers like Neely, Zinkan, and Galchick, he cannot afford to fall far behind.  Ryan Hurley gave Bake a very tough battle at Wadsworth.  He can expect many more at the district and state level.

There were some curious parallels between Bake and Zinkan last year - - both lost just one bout and both lost it to Percival.  However, Zinkan’s loss was in the state finals after he had beaten Huddle, Dimitris, and Spivey quite handily.  Zinkan has had a bit of a shaky season, too.  At 145# he lost a 7-2 bout to Ruth in the SWOCA semi-finals and finished 3^rd, and did not wrestle at the CIT.  At 140# he looked a little wobbly at the Ohio Duals beating Neely, who had outwrestled him, in overtime, and then losing a 3-2 bout to Dunstan.  However, at Easton he won three straight to get back on track.

Neely lost to Hurley at the Medina finals, but, as mentioned, wrestled Zinkan to a stand-still at the Ohio Duals.  He is a “full go” wrestler who never stops.  Galchick has won at Brecksville and the Top Gun with great quickness and strength.  A transfer from Salem he has made progress at Fitch.  Dunstan was twice a one-point loser at last year’s States and the Zinkan win was his highlight of this season.  He may not be as physically strong as some of the others.  Demarco won the GMVWA at 145# and the WRC at 140# over Penn.  He is the least known of this top half-dozen, but surely in their class in terms of performance.

The pairings may be a problem.  Three of my Top Six, are at Perry so conceivably Zinkan could have Galchick, Demarco and Neely or Dunstan in his half bracket.  Such and unbalanced bracket would potentially skew the eventual placement outcomes.

The Perry district is again, exceptional at the top.  With Bake, Galchick and Demarco competing here there isn’t a lot of room for anybody else.  Interestingly there is a huge gap between them and folks like Riley and Clark.  Getting the right bracketing will be crucial to qualification.

Neely should dominate at Darby.  No one else there should be within a half dozen points.  State qualifier Rike and Amerine are probably next best with Cronin and Lamonica a short half step behind.

Zinkan, too, should have little trouble at Fairfield.  However, Sommer has had substantial experience, and could provide at least some challenge.  After that, the last state spots are wide open.  A dark-horse candidate might be Harris who at 18-3 has one of the best records in the group.

Dunstan’s plan would be to win his district and then be paired in a half bracket with only Bake.  That would almost certainly gain placement, and, perhaps, even more.  State qualifier Ware is back after a marvelous district run last year.  He was the only first round loser at Mentor who won five consolation bouts to get the third and last qualifying spot.  Unfortunately, that strategy failed at the state level where he lost his first two outings.

145#

Projected Champion:  Vinnie DiGiovanni (Solon)

Top Contenders

If you look at potential stars, top-line strength, and overall depth this is the best weight class in division I.  I will be amazed if some of these folks don’t migrate to 152#.  And with all this we have the added bonus of featuring some of the most aggressive wrestlers in the state.  Mahone is a slam-bang get-a-fall kind of wrestler, while Blanks and Spivey are very active and offensive minded.  Wahoff is a pinner who has had a particularly high percentage of falls this year, while DiGiovanni  runs up high point totals. Its nice to see success with that style because wrestling is a sport that is teetering close to being out of balance at the upper levels.  And, frankly, sports that lose that critical balance between offense and defense rapidly fall out of favor.  I mean I was glad to see Rulon Gardner upset the Russian, but wasn’t it about the most boring nine minutes of your life.  You can always tell when a sport is out of balance when they start devising off-the-wall rules to jump-start scoring.  Every year now FILA tries some half-baked idea just to try and get some points on the board.  We must continue to find ways to reward the attacking wrestler by giving the benefit of the doubt on takedowns to the offensive wrestler and not to the defender. 

There is only one reason that I’ve selected DiGiovanni - - I believe he is better on his feet than anyone else here.  That should give him the opportunity to grab an early lead against wrestlers who are stronger and more physical than he is.  The problem is that DiGiovanni is sometimes impetuous and impatient, and finds himself with poor positioning.  He has been pinned by Ghrist and Woodruff this year, and Bake in last year’s final.  He’ll have to avoid such situations with the back specialists we have at this class.  DiGiovanni was 2^nd last year at 135# in a somewhat surprising run.  He went into the Mentor district with six losses, but had little trouble with the weak field until finals when he had to go overtime to defeat Vondruska.  There was little indication that he would catch fire at the State meet and blast his way to the finals easily beating Yetzer and Neely.  Then with shocking suddenness, he twice took Bake down and led 8-4 after one period before the early second period disaster.

As always the Perry District is strong.  Mahone placed at this weight last year, and is, for three minutes, absolutely devastating.  At the Mentor District final last year, he led 15-4 in the second period, but had to score late to seal a 20-14 win.  If he can go for six minutes like he does for three, he’ll be very difficult to beat.  I thought state qualifier Clouse looked absolutely devastating at Brecksville until the finals when Jones’ legs slowed him down.  Ambrose is not as well known as the others, but he is very good.  He pinned Sutcliffe at Smithville for the title, but was 2^nd at the Dies when he had to forfeit to him.  He was 4^th at Medina losing once on an illegal slam.  Jones will probably not like his rating.  He has beaten Ashby and Clouse, but I’m still not totally convinced.  He was 5^th at the Dies, but there is no question, he is tough on top.  Berger can be very good.  He has beaten Ashby and lost to Ghrist in overtime.  Both he and Horner, (Uniontown Lake) could pull an upset here.

The top three at Fairfield are just super.  Wahoff is a three-time placer (6-6-4) whose only losses at States last year were to National High School champ Dave Bolyard.  This year he has become super aggressive winning at both the SWOCA and at Kenston.  He might be DiGiovanni’s most dangerous foe.  Blanks was ranked 2^nd at 152# last year, but had some tough luck.  He lost three times by scores of 4-3, 8-7 (OT), OT tie break.  I still think he should have met Bertin again, in the finals.  This year he won at SWOCA and swept through the Ohio Duals.  His only losses have been out-of-state- defeats.  Ruth is a solid block of muscle who is a returning state qualifier.  At the SWOCA. he beat Zinkan, but lost a one-pointer to Wahoff.  The last spot is up for grabs.

Spivey was 4^th at 140# last year with wins over Dunstan and Terbay.  This year he dominated at Medina and Franklin Hts., but was 3^rd at the Midwest Classic losing 6-4 to DiGiovanni.  His only other loss was to the Moeller back- up 145-pounder who caught and pinned him at the Ohio Duals.  State alternate Ghrist, had a fall over DiGiovanni to win at Solon, but was only 4^th at the OVAC.  State qualifier Huddle also returns and has had a strong season.  He was 2^nd at both the Gorman and Marion Harding.  The sophomore, Jake Kuhner, was a junior high state runner-up and is probably fourth best here.  Josey, down from 152#, is a bit of an unknown quantity, both in terms of past performance and how he’ll react to the lower weight.  He cannot be overlooked.

The Mentor district is clearly the weakest at this weight class.  Only Ashby has had state experience, but its been a bit of an up-and-down year for him.  This will be another weight class where it will be interesting to see the Cleveland sectionals face

off against those from Toledo.  I know the expectation is that Cleveland will dominate, but neither of those Northeast sectionals are as strong as normal this year.  I would say the issue is still in doubt.  Besides those listed, watch for ,White (Madison), Fischer (Bowsher) and Avsec (Geneva).

152 #

Projected Champion:  Chris Kallai (Wadsworth)

Top Contenders 

When I worked in Advertising, we had a slogan that perception is reality, and you see that every day.  For example, the common, housefly became the second creature to have its full genome decoded by a very dedicated group of scientists.  Fly people as Drosophila researcher call themselves, get so immersed with their work that they come to think of people as large flies without wings.  Like I said, perception is everything and my perspective looking at the 152-pound weight class is that as presently constituted it is very weak.  After the dynamite contests anticipated at 140# and 145#, this might be one of the weakest weight class in Division I.  I was stunned when both, Mahone and David Blanks dropped to 145# when this weight class seemed so much more congenial.  Perhaps we’ll see one or both return to this class, and, if so, they will be high impact items.

Saying that one weights class is weaker than another does not mean it will be less competitive.  That can be true, but, oftentimes, it just suggests that the battle will be fought with wrestlers who have less credentials.  That is my view here.  I anticipate a lot of close, hard-fought bouts with some real surprises.

My choice is the Wadsworth senior, Chris Kallai.  It’s been over 20 years since a Kallai has won a state title so I think this wrestling family is overdue.  Kallai was a district runner-up last year at this class, but lost a tough opening round match-up to eventually runner-up Patzakis, 9-7.  Two consolation wins put him in position to place, but a loss to Kapustka finished him.  This year he beat Bauer in overtime to win at Wadsworth and lost a 13-12 heartbreaker to Division II champ Keith Cupp in the Top Gun final.  He was perfect at the Ohio Duals bombing Leabu, 11-2.  To win he’ll have to have superior match management because one can anticipate some very close bouts.

However, that probably won’t be true at the district level.  I think there is a clearly discernible gap between him and a bevy of other contenders.  Gray, Fogliano, Settles, Holztrager, and Gasparro are all very close and if you add Brady, Herchick (Hudson) and Hood (Medina) into the mix it spells donnybrook.  I like Fogliano because he can be a pinner while Settles just won the Dies at this class.  Finishing first in these crowded sectionals could provide the bracket edge needed to qualify.

Terbay has been absent for a bit, but if he’s healthy and at weight he would be a very close second choice at this class.  He won the Ironman with a 5-4 win over Leabu and pinned Mahone to take the Medina title.  He did not wrestler at the Carroll Invitational but their excellent 160-pounder Merkle, took the 152# title – so maybe we are seeing a possible switch.  Last year, as a sophomore, Terbay was a state quarter-finalist and ended up 5^th.  By the time you read this where he will wrestle is likely to have been resolved.  State qualifier Kaney, is up five weight classes, but seems to have adjusted well.  Marcus Blanks, David’s identical twin, missed all of last year, but won the SWOCA at 160# on a fall.  I saw him at the Ohio Duals where I thought his conditioning was suspect.  He moved reasonably well, but Leabu got him at the end and won 12-4.  Division II state qualifier Ross, will be here this year, but Merkle beat him at Carroll.  Gadson was 2^nd at Kenston and looked like a wrestler with great potential, but clearly is still rough around the edges.

Bauer heads a strong quartet at Mentor.  He lost to Kallai in overtime at Wadsworth for 2^nd and to Hahn at Smithville for 3^rd, but was an easy winner at the Gorman.  He has finalist potential.  Leabu has looked very shaky recently.  He does not seem to be wrestling with the kind of confidence his skills should command.  He was 3^rd at Mayfield just nipping Fogliano and 3^rd also at the Powerade.  It’s time to pick-up the pace.  State qualifier, Marzec and Johnson are strong representatives from the Toledo area.  Marzec won at Oak Harbor and Tiffin and was a finalist at the CIT while Johnson was a champion at Perrysburg and Waite utilizing final round crushes.  That’s a strong quartet with Harris, and Franke not far behind.

There is not a lot at Darby.  Kuhner was 3^rd at Medina and was a state alternate last year.  White is capable of the big upset so he must be handled with care while everybody else here is likely to be first round fodder at the Schottenstein Center.

160#

Projected Champion:  Anthony Magistrelli (Maple Hts.) 

Top Contenders 

Last year I spent some time looking at the future prospects of underclassmen who make the state finals, but lose and finish as runners-up.  Somehow it intuitively seemed that in the natural order of things most of those runners-up would become champions.  Yet, as this chart shows, that is far from a sure bet.

In fact, less than half triumph the following year which suggest that perhaps, 7 of our 15 returning runners-up this year will move up one step on the championship podium.  That has significance at this weight class as Patzakis returns after finishing 2^nd last year at 152#.

For the last two years Magistrelli, has been on the cusp of greatness, and I believe this is his breakthrough year.  He was 5^th as a sophomore and 3^rd last year losing only to eventual champ, Schweda, 3-0.  This year he has suddenly gotten very aggressive, very physical and the results are startling - - an undefeated season, three tournament titles, and a boatload of pins.  He’ll be a marked man at Columbus, but I think he’ll handle the pressure.

Magistrelli’s chief competition from the Perry District should come from the swift Wiseman.  At 171# much of the year this returning state qualifier has been tough to beat.  He was an overtime loser at 171# in the Brecksville final and was 3^rd at that same weight class at North Canton.  His only loss at 160# was an injury default at the Top Gun.  Egan is a solid, workmanlike performer, who gets middle to low places at this weight.  Jamerson is the best Canton McKinley has to offer while White and McGee will be in the hunt as well.  Its the top duo that you will want to watch.

Stephens was 5^th last year at 160# and heads a rugged Darby district.  He has the potential to defeat Magistrelli, but may have trouble with his style the first time he sees it.  He is undefeated this year, including wins at Tiffin, Kilbourne, and Upper Arlington.  Dysart was a district champ and state qualifier at 135# last year, where he just failed to place.  He is a very athletic 160-pounder with wins just about everywhere except the Medina final where Ruberg outscored him.  He has strong placement potential.  Johansson’s a good third choice here, but after that, its all nebulous and hazy.

Patzakis parleyed a trio of narrow victories to the state runner-up spot last year and this excellent all-around athlete could well do the same this year .he was an easy champion at Wadsworth and the CVCA duals. He’s not flashy but they keep raising his hand at the end of every bout.  He has two potential challengers for the district crown at Mentor.  Shaver has had a great season in his first year in a starting role at St. Edward.  He was 2^nd at the Ironman, Powerade, and Mayfield Duals.  His only really crushing defeat was Magistrelli tech falling him at Mayfield.  McDaniel is the other challenger and he has been a terror in the Toledo are while going undefeated.  A powerful pinner , he’ll have to be handled with care.

Ruberg and Ostholthoff lead a solid Fairfield contingent.  Ruberg was 3^rd last year at 152# losing only to the incomparable Bertin.  Still this two-time state qualifier is inconsistent.  He won the Medina in a tough field, but was 7^th at Brecksville losing to Galvan and Carmony.  Ostholthoff is just down from 171#.  He was the SWOCA champ at that weight pinning in the finals.  He will be a problem for anyone in the state bracket sheet.  State qualifier Horne, comes over from division II with good credentials while remainder of the field is a step behind.  Of course, that all changes if Terbay ends up competing here.

171 #

Projected Champion:  Hetag Pliev (Lakota East)

Top Contenders

Bach wrote six suites for unaccompanied cello - - they were nearly lost, the original manuscript was never found, and only a few copies handwritten by his wife made it through.  Once rediscovered, they were, for the longest time, simply ignored, mistaken for exercise etudes.  Then, at the age of 13, the prodigy Pablo Casals was rummaging around in a second hand shop in Barcelona, and he found a dusty copy of these pieces he had never heard of.  He bought them, took them home, studied them and was later to describe the experience as the greatest revelation of his life.  He worked at them every day for 12 years until he had the courage to play them in public, and then he seemed to never stop performing them, and with absolutely intimidating authority.   These pieces have become to cellists what Shakespeare’s plays are to actors or Rembrandt’s painting to painters - - the foundation of the repertoire, the music that can be returned to and never exhaust.

Thus, it was on the slender threads of chance that one of the great musical works can be enjoyed today.  My question, in this connection is whether it was the slender threads of chance that catapulted Nick Lukens to a state title last year.  Make no mistake, Lukens earned that title with solid wrestling and masterful match management.  Still he was a district 3^rd losing to Clemens 9-0 in the semi-finals for his sixth loss.  Then after capturing 3^rd place by a point he won four bouts at Columbus - - two in overtime and the other two by a total of three points.  In the finale he defeated Clemens with an overtime takedown.  This year he was pinned by Rios at the Beast of the East, barely defeated Chambers in the semi-finals before being thumped by Keough 7-1 in the SWOCA finals,and then was majored by Rios 13-5 in the dual meet.  All this was at 189#.  At the CIT he dropped to 171, but lost to Morrison, 13-5 in the finals although the first week after his cut might have proven difficult.  Again, at Easton, he lost two out of three to drop his record to 14-7.

There are three other challengers.  Kallai was freshman of the year in 1999 when he was a district champ at 145# and the finished 3^rd at Columbus losing only to three-time titlist Ty Morgan.  Last year at 160# he repeated as district champ, but was a disappointing 6^th at States losing twice to Stephens.  This year he won at Wadsworth and Mayfield, but was 5^th at the Top Gun.  He has split two one-point bouts with Camargo.  He s clearly the biggest Kallai that we’ve seen in the past 30 years.

Camargo is a great looking athlete with tremendous upside potential.  He was a district champion at this weight class last year and beat Pliev in the first round 12-11--losses to Hallahan and Clift then quickly eliminated him.  This year he was 2^nd (to Kallai) at Wadsworth and won at the Top Gun.  He’s a real “horse” at this weight. 

Pliev is truly amazing.  A recent Russian emigrant, he likes only free-style and is negative on the way we conduct high school bouts.  He is only a junior, but already a two-time state qualifier, though never a placer.  At Brecksville, weighing 180 pounds, he tossed the 189’s, good ones like Nagel, Poe and Robertson, all over the mat.  He made it look frighteningly easy.  I can’t imagine what he’ll do at 171# nor, frankly, can anyone else.  There is a certain inconsistency to his performance - - sometimes almost a certain lack of interest.

So where do we stand?  Where we always seem to in recent years at this weight class, in a state of confusion shaking our head at the number of options.  This has been a jinx weight class in recent years with surprises like Lukens and Osolin winning.  My original choice was Kallai based on consistency and experience, with  Camargo almost an equal co-favorite.  But how can you overlook Pliev’s dominating performances where he shreds first-class wrestlers.  I worry about his focus and his predilection for unusual losses, but he has to be the choice..  Lukens is extremely intelligent - - as witness, his Stanford acceptance (my 11^th grade daughter is terribly jealous) and, I’m sure will right the ship.  However, the slender threads of probability are not often repeatable.

Kallai and Camargo stand tall at Perry, but Snyder is a strong third choice.  He has good placement potential.  Miller is somewhat overshadowed by Mahone at Bedford, but he has had a great season winning a number of tournaments.  His only disappointment was at Medina where he didn’t seem ready.  Henderson and Oravec have both been impressive, but there is not a lot of qualification room.  Alexander and Tesch are both good long-shot choices.

Pliev and Lukens should dominate at Fairfield.  Two Dayton entrants, Westbeld and Haws, look to be next best although Haws stumbled recently against Tesch.  Should any of this top group falter Saylor, May and Baute wait in the wings.  Gadd at 19-4 is a possibility here.  Clum (Greenville) would have been a qualification threat here, but shoulder surgery has apparently erased his season.

It is very confusing at Mentor.  Fairman and the undefeated Cesear look to be best, but both have some issues - - particularly the strength of Cesear’s schedule.   State qualifier Edwards was 6^th at the Top Gun and 5^th at the Gorman and may struggle to qualify.  Bartlett was a state alternate last year and should play an important part at  this district.  Garcia, Carpenter, Andy and Akenberger (Bowsher) are strong Toledo entrants, but the real mystery is Swift.  He has beaten some strong boys but he also falls victim to first period pins.  Avoiding that he might make it through this crowded field.

There is very little at Darby.  Tucker is rated first in the Columbus area , but Swift and Snyder pinned him at the Ohio Duals and he lost early at Medina.  I’ve also listed Crowthers and Grutsch in my Top Twenty, but this is a district you’ll want to draw into at Columbus

189 #

Projected Champion:  Jeff Clements (Dayton Carroll)

Top Contenders 

When you see numbers like St. Edwards 60 individual state titles or the 30 or more by teams like Maple Hts., Walsh Jesuit, Richmond Hts., and Columbus, DeSales, you forget how difficult it is to produce a state champion.  Many fine programs are pleased to boast one or two champions in their wrestling past.  A good example is St. Xavier, which has had fine teams for decades but has had only one champion or Fremont Ross whose last (and only) titlist happened way back in 1960.  I bring this up because Dayton Carroll, has annually been represented by fine teams and excellent individuals, but are still looking for their first title.  With Clemens Terbay, West and Barrentine, this would seem to be their year to experience that magic moment.

This would appear to be strictly a three-man contest with Clemens, Delguyd, and Rios, the only possible winners.  Clemens was the state runner-up at 171# last year losing to Lukens in overtime after having defeated him, 9-0, in the districts.  This year he was a very strong 2^nd at the Ironman losing to out-of-state Backes and then winning in dominating fashion at Medina, Carroll, the GMVWA, and the CIT.  He has a well-rounded style that shows strength in every element of the sport.  His only lack is overwhelming horsepower.

Delguyd, only a junior, is already a two-time state qualifier who was 4^th last year.  Very, very strong he was beginning, I feared, to become one of those upper-weight wrestlers who abandon offensive actions for the safe, sure defensive posture.  He took refuge in his strength and experience, and took no risks.  At last year’s districts, for example, he had three low-scoring overtime bouts that included two that went to the 30-second tie-breaker.  It was like watching paint dry - - only not as interesting.  That trend continued at Columbus with two more overtime struggles, and this year has been much the same.  in the last two rounds of tournaments.

It was always a cautious low-scoring bout.  Then suddenly against Rios, we saw a different Delguyd.  Attacking form the start, we saw two thigh-high doubles that led to back points and an eventual fall against a wrestler who had just defeated the #1 189-pounder in the country.  Now, which Delguyd will show up in Columbus?

Rios has to be the most improved wrestler in Ohio.  A backup 189-pounder at St. Ed’s last year he couldn’t make the varsity team at a weight class where his team was not particularly strong.  Then in the summer, he dedicated himself to getting better.  He drove himself in every aspect of the sport and honed his not inconsiderable physical talents to the maximum, It paid off.  He was 3^rd at the Ironman (losing by a point to Backes), but pinned Lukens at the Beast of the East, won at the Powerade, and dominated everybody since including Lukens (again) and the #1 Hard.  The Delguyd episode will only strengthen his resolve.  His big negative is experience, which cannot be acquired overnight no matter how good the high school program.  His strength is a fierce attacking posture, which leads to lots of points, and normally a victory.

Rios and Delguyd exit at Mentor in what one would hope pairings wise would be a rematch in the finals.  I see Klimkowicz and Killian as next best with Fink and the Toledo contingent – Bookmiller, Galbraith and Maldonado (Whitmer) - - as other possibilities.

Clemens should have little trouble at Fairfield.  State qualifier, Hiller, returns but Clemens finished ahead of him at the GMVWA as Hiller lost before he could reach my top pick.  The rest of this group is relatively innocuous with little chance of state placement.

There should be a sharp struggle at Perry.  State placer Poe, state qualifier, Klaus, and Robertson make for a formidable trio.  All three might grab a low place.  Roberstson has lost only to Pliev this year, and I believe, he is marginally best here.  Klaus was  3^rd at Wadsworth and had a close low scoring bout with Delguyd (who hasn’t), but was bombed by Rios 19-7.  Poe was 6^th last year after defeating Hiller and Camino to make the semi-finals.  Two possible upset specialists are Muir and Chapman.

State qualifier Beechum heads a very representative Darby contingent which may not have horsepower to battle the top half-dozen wrestlers.  Horton might be the exception as he seemed in good form at Medina.  I like Griffiths, who won at Waite and  Darby.  Look for some upsets at the district level at this weight class.

215 #

Projected Champion: Matt Koz (St. Edward)

Top Contenders

Since the advent of this weight in 1995, the eventual champ was rated either 1^st (four times) or 2^nd (twice) in this report.  This year that mark will be put to the test as we confront a weight class that is ill-defined and weak.  There are only four returning state qualifiers - - none of whom have reached state placement.  Last year, for example, there were eight wrestlers with previous state experience and three who had placed.  What this portends is a wide-open competition where a dark horse contender or even a relative unknown can win.

Only one sophomore has ever won a state title at 215# in any school classification, and that was three-time state champ Jeff Knupp.  This year there are two possibilities with both Matt Koz and Pat Barrentine, strong contenders.  In my view this is probably a four man competition with Legg, an outside possibility.  I also believe that the last two rounds will feature very close bouts where match management will be crucial.

Koz won two state bouts last year and has built on that to fashion an outstanding 2000-01 campaign.  He won titles at Mayfield and the Ironman and was 2^nd at the Beast of the East.  His huge pin at heavyweight gave St. Ed’s a 28-27 win over Easton and he was perfect at the Ohio Duals.  His only close bout was an overtime win over Mohler, and he has developed as a strong pinner.

Ritzenthaler could easily win and he has been at the top of my 215-pound list at various times this year.  I undervalued him last year and he made that crystal clear by making it to the state tournament and then winning two bouts there.  Unlike Koz, he is undefeated this year, but wrestles a far gentler schedule.  It will not be a surprise if he takes it all.

Katafiasz has spent the last 12 months preparing for his senior season.  It has paid off in an undefeated season that includes pinning every opponent, but Hudson.  A state qualifier last year. he was eliminated by Ritzenthaler in a close bout.  He seems very determined to win it all this year and the Toledo Blade calls him an obvious top choice -  they could be right.

Barrentine is a transfer from West Carrollton, who has quickly filled the 215# niche.  He was 4^th at the Ironman, 3^rd at Medina, 2^nd at the GMVWA and 1^st at Carroll and the CIT - - in that order.  That’s the right kind of progression and he should benefit from a relatively easy district.

Koz and Katafiasz are at the Mentor District and the winner there should have a 67% chance of being away from Ritzenthaler as well, at the state meet.  That would be a big advantage and certainly improve state title chances.  It will also be interesting to see if Katafiasz can run roughshod over Koz as he has done to everyone in the northwest.  Tiffin champ, Legg, is also there in what is the most difficult district.  There will be some real battles for the fourth state berth with bracketing playing an important role.

Ritzenthaler has already proven he can beat all the Central district 215’s and should have little trouble taking home his first district title.  The quartet of Burgei, Adams Haddox, and Riegler is solid, but one will have to stay home.  My feeling is that any of the three who qualify have outside placement possibilities.

There is also strong competition at Fairfield with Barrentine on top, but not nearly as dominant as Ritzenthaler at Darby.  State qualifier Slaven, should reach Columbus once again, but placement may be a reach.  Naltner and Cutting are very close, but they are, perhaps, slightly ahead of the remaining 215’s after Barrentine.  This group will struggle at Columbus.

There are three potential placers at Perry.  Campea is big and strong and just plain tough to score against.  He won at Brecksville over Juby in overtime and was 2^nd at Avon Lake holding Moran to a 3-1 win.  He was a 2-1 loser away from a possible state berth in last year’s district, but should qualify this year.  Juby has put together strong back-to-back seasons.  He, too, is good defensively and it will be close with almost everyone.  Mohler is huge and moves well, too.  He gave Koz all he could handle at the Ohio Duals.  He was a one-point finalist loser at Wadsworth and was 2^nd at Mayfield when Koz caught and pinned him.

HVY.

Projected Champion:  Kenny Leckrone (Fairmont)

Top Contenders 

This would appear to be a two-man battle in much the same manner as we saw at 135#.  Of course, at this weight class the upset potential is enormous as just one small mistake can quickly end the quest for a state title.  Last year was unusual, in that, the two dominant heavyweights met in the finals having survived all upset attempts.  This year Leckrone and Olds would seem to be a clear step above the rest of the field.  I view Olds as, perhaps, the slightly better athlete, but Leckrone as the more accomplished wrestler.

Leckrone made it to semi-finals last year before being crushed by Stepanovich and then losing again to Padilla for 3^rd.  Purely by chance I shared an elevator with him after the semi-finals and he was most pleasant despite the defeat.  However, he vowed he wouldn’t be thrown around like that again - - and he has kept his word.  His only loss was to long-time nemesis Lane, last year’s Division III runner-up, at the Mid-West Classic, which he avenged by fall at the GMVWA.  He also hammered Cannings 8-0, but has not met some of the other good heavies (not that there are that many).

Olds, a football signee at Ohio State, is now right at about the weight limit and is undefeated this year.  Last season he was 30-2 going into States but lost in the quarter-finals to Padilla and didn’t place.  This year he won impressively at Medina majoring Turner (Division III choice) in the finals after pinning Bryant and decisioning Cottrell.  He also won at Perrysburg, Upper Arlington, and Dublin.  He wrestled Cannings in the Perrysburg finals and, significantly or not, won 8-5.

This wild card here is Bendau.  Only a sophomore he has a wide repertoire of free-style moves that make him very dangerous.  He’s had some injury problems.  But if healthy, he can be a deadly pinner.  He pinned state qualifier Ardo in the WRC finals and had five first period falls at Wadsworth.  Watch for him, again, watch for him

Lecknone should have no trouble at the Fairfield District.  There is a big drop-off down to SWOCA runner-up Dooley, not only in performance, but in weight (about 40 pounds).  Murray has had some big wins while Rosing has been a consistent placer.  The ultra-light Huber - - who apparently cannot beat out Naltner at 215# - - was 2^nd at the CIT and his agility could tie up some of the bigger boys.

It will be much tougher for Olds at Darby.  Bevington  is a mobile heavyweight with good skills.  He has but two losses, one to my Division III choice Turner, and the other to Division II Cullin.  He was 3^rd at the Top Gun, beat Cannings to win at Waite, and defeated Gray for the Gorman title.  The 265-pound Gray had four falls including one over Wernke to win at Marion Harding.  Last year he was often passive, but is more aggressive this year.  Redman and Winbush are both good, and I’m always amazed that Redman doesn’t win just about everything.  He always looks great when I see him at solon.

Bendau is the most active heavyweight in the state as he leads the Mentor District.  His big challenge will be Cannings who is right at the weight limit.  A Toledo scouting paper on Cannings reports that  “he’s a bull and when he wants can be very good but sometimes is content to be passive.”  Leckrone beat him 8-0, but Olds decisioned him  by a closer 8-5 mark.  State qualifier Wernke has not been consistent this year, but should still be a force here.  The relatively small Booth has won 19 of his last 20 bouts after a slow start.

The mammoth Vallos won at Kenston and was a strong 4^th at the Top Gun losing only to division II choice Raber and Bevington.  State qualifier Ardo is about 270 pounds and can be very dangerous.  He was 3^rd at Brecksville after a very early loss.  Golden is the first wrestler to be designated by two colors in this report, and is a possible state qualifier along with Moxie.  Hurst could be a real surprise.  At 270 pounds he has the size to compete, and he won a district bout last year.  He may have the best chance of any Cleveland Senate wrestler to qualify.

Teams

1.  St. Edward – This is a team that last year graduated seven starters, four state champs and 127 points.  It was supposed to be a rebuilding year and, in a sense, it is.  They only start five seniors, but still should score over 100 points in their quest for a 17^th team title.  Moos, Lang, Rios and Koz are potential state champs, but they’ll need the middleweights - - Vondroska, Dunstan, Leabu and Shaver - - to score at least a little to lock down the team trophy.  I think it might be closer than most people are expecting.

2.   Moeller – No team from the Southwest District has ever won a Division I team title and only Wayne and Moeller the last two years have been runners-up.  Moeller returns the most state points (70.0), but they have not looked sharp all year.  Still, both Zinkan boys, Blanks, and Lukens could be finalists and Baria is sure to place high.  That means Candy, Ostholthoff, M. Blanks and Creeden need to chip in.  The big worry is Lukens who already has lost seven times.

3. Carroll – This is a team with four potential state placers in West, Terbay, Clemens, and Barrentine.  Better yet any (or all) of this quartet could be finalists.  The key elements are to get Terbay at 152#, West in tip-top form and  Clemens to defeat Rios and/or Delguyd.  If Sommer helps out they could surpass Moeller..

4.  Massillion Perry – Rarely has a team had so many excellent freshman and sophomores.  Foster and Luke are sensational, but Riggs, Kovach, and Johnstone are just a half-step behind.  If the seniors Clouse, Snyder, and Egan can chip in this team could be in the hunt for the runner-up trophy.  The next two years it will be between Perry and St. Edward at they try to become the first public school since 1977 to win a Division I state title..

5.   Maple Hts. – They had a great all-around team last year that ended up scoring 58 points at the State Meet.  This year there are probably only three who can score at the state level - - Costello, Pflug, and Magistrelli - - but they should just about match that total.  That would make it three consecutive years in the Top Five.

6.  Wadsworth – The brutal Perry District will knock out some potential state scorers on this team.  Still both Chris and Matt Kallai are potential champions, and Mohler and Klaus should score some.  After that its pretty much hoping for a miracle..

7.  Mayfield – This is a good dual meet team that should be able to bring some potential scorers through that weaker than normal Mentor District.  Delguyd and Bendau are the heavy-hitters, but the former has to stay aggressive and the latter has to stay healthy.  Herrera was 4^th last year, but he’ll have to score at a tough weight class while Fairman needs to be super-sharp.  It would help if Tabor, Shamakian, or one of Pietropintos came to Columbus, too...

8.  Coffman – Bob Stoll is a superior coach whose team will be tested both at the District and State level.  Still they qualify out of the smallest and easiest district which should maximize their state numbers.  Olds could be a finalist while Dysart, Doucher, and White should score.  They need Tucker or Lamonica or somebody to step up big time..

9. Strongsville – If its going to happen for them it has to be in the lower weights.  Paglia is a potential champ and Passafiume and Januszewski can place if they get through that brutal Perry District.  They need White and Allen to qualify and maybe, Gasparro to sneak through at 152#.  .

     10.    Mentor – This is a long-shot choice, but the potential is there.  Pollock, Glavan, and Ashby should all score at the state level - - but I’m worried about the last of those three.  Can Jones help?  Probably not, so that big three will have to be in top form. 

     11.Garfield Hts.—Tepley, Wornoff, and Juby should all place and that might be worth 35 points.  That’s generally enough to be in the Top Ten, and possibly the freshman Effner can score at the weak 119# class.

     12. Thomas Worthington—They have two sure high placers in Neely and Spivey.  They’ll need help from people like Evans, Grutsch, or Callahan if they want to move up.

You can contact me at John@Ohiowrestler.com