WWW.OhioWrestler.com would like to thank Brian Brakeman for all the hard work it took putting out the High School Wrestling Forecast and for the opportunity to share it with all our loyal e-patrons.

Introduction

The object of these annual reports encompasses two basic goals.  First is to acquaint everyone with the basic character of each weight class and identify the participants who are likely to play a major role in its resolution.  In addition, each district is examined as to whom its’ representatives might be.  Second is to stimulate interest in the whole State tournament process throughout Ohio.  Naturally, accuracy is also of primary concern, so care is taken to develop the most comprehensive list possible of outstanding wrestlers, though of necessity, the evaluation of their final place is, in part, subjective.  This report was written during a ten-day period ending January 20, based on the information available at that time.  It’s kind of a snapshot in time, with a picture that will surely change in many ways by tournament time.  Certainly many of those listed at weight classes where they are currently certified will move up for competitive reasons or because they cannot make the 50 percent rule.  In fact, some of those moves may well be precipitated by information contained within this document.

There are several ways you can help make this report more accurate.   First by sending me bracket sheets for tournaments you enter either by fax or mail – I’m especially interested in sectional and district bracket sheets this year and any tournaments for next year.   Also, phone calls, or better yet, e-mail messages dealing with results, weight class selection, or whatever, are gratefully received.  I especially appreciate coaches who provide an honest overview of their squad and superior wrestlers they’ve seen in competition.  Already I get messages and information from too many people to name individually, but I appreciate it all.

Brian Brakeman

23225 Hardwick Road

Shaker Hts., OH  44122

Fax No.: 330-659-2359                     E-mail:  cherylabrake@aol.com

This report is also available on the Internet on Gary Baumgartner’s website as well as Brecksville High School’s website:

http://www.baumspage.com

http://www.brecksvillewrestling.com

©2004– Reproduction of this material for profit without written consent is prohibited.

And remember, my usual fee is a wrestling T-shirt – XL.

(and that includes all your Internet readers)

DIVISION I

This is yet another year in Division I where there are more than the normal number of weight classes that seem in disarray.  Despite the fact that there are many more meets that draw teams from all corners of the state the sorting out process seems even more confusing than in the past.  While this is hard on forecasters it makes for exciting and unexpected outcomes - - at least at the weight class level.  In the team competition two squads stand out among the 200 or so Division I competitors and are the only ones with a realistic chance of winning the overall championship.  One complicating factor this year is the uncertain composition of the districts at Darby and Fairfield.  The two northern sectionals in the Southwest District will seed teams such that one group will head to Darby and the other to Fairfield.

103 #

Projected Champion:  KYLE HOLLIDAY (Waite)

Top Contenders

The first weight class out of the gate and already I’m stumped.  In the past it often happened that candidates at the lowest weight class were in short supply.  But, lately, we’ve been spoiled as each year there have been two or three possible winners with exceptional credentials.  That is not true this year.  All the 103-pounders competing in Division I have a combined two victories in state competition, so we have little “past-year” credentials to evaluate.  At the same time no one has dominated during the course of this season with many of the biggest tournaments won by Division II and III competitors.  With no real standouts look for somebody in the five to ten ranking to make a real run at it.

It’s likely that the Perrysburg District will be the crucible from which the eventual champ will emerge.  It is by far the most difficult site making the four eventual qualifiers battle-hardened if nothing else.  State qualifier Holliday owns one of those two state victories and has vacillated between 103# and 112#.   It looks like it’s a tough cut so he may be vulnerable in the early rounds of a tournament.  He won at Medina--ahead of Harris, but they did not meet--and was 2^nd at Perrysburg at 112#.  He won at Waite defeating Division III Evans 7-4 in the final.  He might be the most explosive wrestler in the field.  If it’s not him it could well be Ricky Floyd.  He was the JV 103-pounder behind state runner-up Jordan Brown last year and won the WRC when Brown was hurt.  He won at Solon, but has wrestled very little since then.  For a first year varsity wrestler, (even with DeAngelo and Deonte Penn as brothers), that could be a large negative.  The best of this group will eventually be the freshman Harris.  The question is whether “eventually” means the end of February or next year.  He has wrestled a brutal schedule including a 4^th at the Ironman and the Beast and a 3^rd at Medina.   He has not lost to a Division I competitor.   A state junior high champ he is experienced far beyond his years.  The senior Levine has only lost once, but has not wrestled nearly the schedule of Harris or Holliday.  Two other wrestlers are probably nearly equivalent to this top quartet.  Peskar, in particular, is good, but has, like Floyd, been inactive recently.  Parker got “stuck” in his first bout at Waite and then won everything else to finish 3^rd--unfortunately missing a chance at Holliday.  He won at Southview and was 2^nd (to the tough Barnard) at Riverside.  That leaves the productive Lem, the excellent freshman Guthrie, and Strieter with little hope for qualification--unless Floyd and Peskar are district no-shows.

The only district with two returning state qualifiers--Earley and Jordan--is at Darby.  The one to watch is the rugged Earley who was a state quarter-finalist last year.  His big win was at the Midwest Classic where he dominated the field and he did so again at Marion Harding.  A Columbus area 103-pounder had not won a Division I state title since 1973 when Iovine won two years ago. This time Earley may make it a far shorter wait. The rest of the participants will struggle to place.  Jordan is, probably, the safe choice as next best, but he too, hasn’t wrestled recently missing the Top Gun.

Barnard has not registered often on my radar screen, but he beat Parker handily at Riverside and won at Kenston over Roche.  It will be interesting to see how he fares on a weekend where he’ll face all quality opponents.  Rini, although very small, has suddenly blossomed at Massillon Perry.  He was 4^th at Brecksville and since then beat Gasser twice (in overtime both times) and Weaver.  He seems on a relatively steep upward trajectory.  Gasser is always steady while Wills will challenge for the fourth state berth out of the Massillon District.   He’ll have plenty of company - - Stoerkel, Schilling, Fetchko and a cast of dozens in that quest. Incidentally, I like old-style nicknames like Butch and Spike so Boomer Fetchko gets a check mark from this author.

I’m not seeing any standouts at Fairfield.  Most of the tournaments in that area seem to have Division II or III wrestlers winning at 103#.  The two finalists at the SWOCA-- Adams and Weaver in a 12-10 barnburner--look to be a shade above everyone else, but they’ll struggle against the best from the North.  Wolf and Doll should lead a Dayton contingent, but to where--south to Fairfield or north to Darby.  I also like Hall in this district with, maybe, a DeVelvis as a possible challenger.

More than most weight classes the resolution of this weight class will hinge on the random fluctuations inherent in the pairings process.  If Holliday gets a very tough foe early, when he has just made weight, or Harris draws one of the big 103’s or any of a dozen other possibilities, the impact could be substantial.  In quantum mechanics one formulates a wave function that can assume many different values and which then collapses (at least in this universe) into the actual outcome.  So, too, at this weight class, there are many more possibilities than usual, but in this case, the most probable champion is likely to be Kyle Holliday.

112 #

Projected Champion:  LANCE PALMER (st. edward)

Top Contenders

One of the staples of Hollywood movie making is the sequel.  Most of them are far worse than the original (just think of Speed 2), but occasionally the sequel turns out to be as good or better than the original.  I liked “Aliens” at least as well as “Alien” and “Terminator 2” was every bit as entertaining as “Terminator”.    This weight class could easily be call “The Return of the 103’s” and I think it could well be even more exciting than last year’s box office hit.

Last years state finalists at 103# will both exit the Perrysburg District.  State champion Palmer, now a sophomore, was the dominant figure at 103# last year.  He was 41-1 and won just about everything except the Ironman where he lost in the finals to an out-of-state wrestler--a defeat he quickly avenged at the Beast.  At the state meet he was never really challenged defeating Brown 9-4.  This year it hasn’t been quite as easy.  He was 2^nd at the Ironman and the Beast getting shut out in both finals, and then lost to Donahoe from Davison (Michigan) when he returned from an injury.  Moving up to 112# is never easy, but, remember Palmer’s three losses have all been to out-of-state competitors.  Palmer is a little small at 112#, but he knows his chief competition well, and should capture his second state title.

Brown is an experienced senior who can control the tempo of the bout.  At Columbus last year nobody (until he got to Palmer) could score on him.  This year he won at Solon and the Midwest Classic and was 2^nd at the Powerade.  Now nursing a leg injury he’ll be refreshed and ready at tournament time.  However, I still think Palmer is three to five points better. The plus for Brown is that he should be on the other side of the draw from Palmer and possibly from Hartley as well.

That Perrysburg District is very good.  You have to figure a healthy Palmer and Brown are going to snag two places leaving only two up for grabs.   There are a lot of possibilities here.  State qualifier Mitchell has been getting low to middle places at 119#, but will do better at 112#.  He was a state quarter-finalist last year, but he has no guarantees at this district.  Toledo Waite champ Brown is very good and CIT champ Shuller and Perryburg champ Tilocco (over Holliday) are both very experienced.  Any of this trio has the credentials to make Columbus, but there are likely to be no more than two spots open.  Goldacker and Yasenko are also good and Ali, at 112#, could be a force as well. It will be a great district. 

The other two possible finalists are at Massillon.  Hartley, still just a sophomore, is a tough kid.  He lost to Palmer in the state semi-finals, and ended up 4^th.  This year he was 4^th at the Ironman, 7^th at the Beast, 3^rd at Medina and 1st at Mayfield.  He only loses to the best--Palmer nipped him (it keeps getting closer), 4-2, and Donahoe beat him at Medina, 16-11.  One of these times he’s going to beat Palmer in what might become a four-year drama.   Also at Massillon is Brecksville champ, Ben Johnson.  He’s tough to figure.  After a great season last year he goes to the district and loses to two guys I think he should have beaten.  This year he won at Brecksville and has had the look of a state placer.  A brilliant student he, maybe, over-analyzes on occasion.  The rest of this district is also strong.  State qualifier Shaft can grind out the wins and state alternate Dunlap may even be better.  I’m not sure whom Mayfield will put out at this class, but both Catalona and Thomas are good.

Neither of the southern districts will be as daunting.  There are four returning state qualifiers in the Southwest District, but I’m guessing Clausing will be at Darby.  If so, he should be favored to win that district.  He was the district title-holder at 103# last year and finished 6^th losing to Brown, 6-1, in the quarterfinals.  His results this year have been generally good with a 3^rd at the GMVWA and 2^nd at North Canton where he lost to Kriwinsky by the surprising score of 12-l.  Since then he won at Fairfield and looks back on track for a second state placement.  If, indeed, he is at Darby I have not seen much there to challenge him.

Assuming Clausing goes to Darby that leaves three returning state qualifiers--Price, Lambert, and Riestenberg--at Fairfield.  Between them they went 0-6 in Columbus and struggled against some of the better boys.  Of this trio I like Price the best as he has had the best performance this year. Lambert, down from 119#, could be a factor at this class once he settles in at the weight.  However, the best 112-pounder (other than the aforementioned Clausing) might be Shilt who beat Price handily early in the year.

119 #

Projected Champion:  Andrew perez (ELYRIA)

Top Contenders

This is one of the strongest and deepest weight classes in Division I (or, in fact, in all divisions).  It starts right at the sectional level with some great match-ups, but the district brackets will really be brutal.  This is true even though it now appears that senior, state runner-up Clayton Stark will not compete at this class.  Even absent his presence the state bracket sheet will be loaded with wrestlers whose credentials might in a normal year cast them as a possible state finalist. 

As was true at the two previous weights the locus of power is at Perrysburg.  My choice is three-time state qualifier and the defending state runner-up at this weight class Andrew Perez.  He won his first 38 bouts last year and then dropped the state final, 5-3, to the clever, two-time champ Brandon Luce.  He is, again, undefeated this year with tourney titles at Avon Lake and Brecksville.  His two demolitions of state champ Pat McLemore have probably unduly inflated his reputation since stylistically, McLemore is perfect for him.  Still, he is blindingly fast and strong and moved up only one weight (and changed one school) since he was 5^th as a freshman at Vermillion. Also at this district is defending state 112# champ Ryan Smith--who was 2^nd as a sophomore and 3^rd as a freshman. Smith is a consummate defensive wrestler with better than average attacking skills.  His four-year record is 129-8 with the upset loss to Eric Wanner in the Medina finals a real surprise--he had beaten him in Columbus on his way to the state title last year.  I keep thinking that the more chances Smith has to look at Perez the more the odds start to shift toward him.  The first takedown in their bouts will be critical and I think Perez will get them.

It now looks like state runner-up Stark will wrestle (if at all) some place other than 119#. His substitute will either be state qualifier McDiarmid--not bad depth--or the excellent Sulzer, both of whom would be a factor at this district.  Also back is state placer Bugara who was 5^th at 103# last year.   He won at Edison, was 3^rd at Mentor (losing to Scaletta) and 2^nd at the Dies getting majored by Ryan Smith. You can’t forget Kleinman, who won the Powerade and was 3^rd at Solon since he has been very close to state qualification the last two years.  This is a tough quintet for the Toledo area boys, but Zyduck won at Perrysburg and Abitua won at Toledo Waite, so you know they can compete.  Also in the mix is Marion Harding and Gorman champ Brett Kemp who in different circumstances would almost surely be favored to qualify.  This is some district--one of the toughest I can remember.

The district at Massillon is also strong, but certainly not to the same extent as Perrysburg.   In my mind there are four principal players with good qualification chances and another foursome who need to be in peak form if they are to get to Columbus.  Former state placer Hunt wrestles for Collinwood and has done a great job despite a schedule that often fails to test him.  He won at Wadsworth defeating Manoogian and Christenson back-to-back.  He’ll be a huge 119#.  Manoogian is a returning state qualifier who continues to get better.  He won one bout at Columbus and was lst at Canal Fulton and 3^rd at Wadworth and the Dies.  Lerer was 3^rd last year at l03# in a most fortunate manner.  He was 5^th in his sectional, but when the sectional champ, Hunt, could not compete Lerer made his way into the bracket and (rather dubiously) on the top seeded line. Good fortune is nothing without good performance and Lerer won three bouts to become a district finalist and state qualifier.  Tack on four additional state wins and he was a third-place medal winner.  He has been at 125# most of the year but 119# looks just about right.  He beat Kleinman, 2-1, and held Perez to his closest score of the year.  He is tough to score against.  Catalona (or Thomas) should have the best shot at the last state spot.

The two top Central District 119’s will face-off with whatever Southwestern wrestlers get shuttled up to Darby.  Wanner was 6^th last year at 112# losing only to two state champs Smith and Federico.  This year his championship at Medina included wins over three-time placer Jackson and state champion Smith.  With that victory he vaulted into the upper echelon at this class.  Two years ago I overlooked Jang at 119# and got “chewed out” by a supporter for missing someone who ended up 5^th in the state.   It certainly is not my intent to miss any strong performer (but it happens) so last year--determined not to get “chewed out” again I thoroughly, each week, checked out the scores from Columbus.  No Jang.  I got panicky thinking I was going to err again when I discovered that he was on some kind of overseas mission.  This year he’s returned but the lay-off has clearly set him back. Still, by tourney time, I anticipate the high level of performance that I had earlier missed.  Factor in Gottke, Ray, Hopkins, and Lepley plus some Dayton boys and it should be a very competitive district.

There are two significant 119’s in the Cincinnati-Dayton area.  Kostoff was a district champ at 112# and won two state bouts.  He was the champ at GMVWA and was 3^rd at the Top Gun losing only to an out-of-state wrestler.  The other strong candidate to place is the junior Sean Szekeresh, a 6^th place district finisher last year.  He was 2^nd at the SWOCA losing to the Indiana state champ 13-9 in the finals.   He also won at Sycamore and seems to be on a roll.  Also there are state qualifier Willcocks, Carraher, and Kaake.  Two people to watch for are DePoy who won again at Mason and was 3^rd at GMVWA.   Also back is state qualifier Kody Pierson who has not competed this year up to now.  How he’ll perform is a question mark.  District semi-finalist Tebbe has a broken hand, but will be a factor if healthy. Depending on who goes to Darby Willcocks could be on the bubble here.

125 #

Projected Champion:  Albert madsen (st. edward)

Top Contenders

This is a weight class that has been dominated for decades by wrestlers from the Northeast District.  The last five champions have competed in that area, eight of the last nine (only Travis Key broke that monopoly), and 24 of the past 28 champions.  At the moment no one dominates, but there are a number of wrestlers that one could make a case for in terms of the top ranking.  In addition, this field could be augmented by some of the 119’s choosing to avoid the crush at that weight class and compete here.

Two years ago this month I thought Madsen would win two or three state titles.  He was at 112# then and he was crushing everybody.  He ripped through the Mentor District and won two state bouts before eventual two-time champ Luce beat him by a takedown in the semi-finals.  He fell to 6^th and then, in his junior year, was plagued by the same sort of injury that hampered Mike Kulczycki for almost a year.   He came back at the end of last year and repeated as district champ, but twice lost to Roberts and finished 4^th.  He wrestled only 15 bouts last year--six of them at States.   This year he was 5^th at the Ironman, 4^th at the Beast, and 1^st at Medina.  His only loss to an in-state wrestler was to state champion Cameron Doggett who he later defeated.  At the Ohio Duals he beat Mossor and crushed state placer Goode.  This is his last chance, and it’s a good one, but he’ll have to be in top form to win it all. 

Madsen will wrestle in the very tough Perrysburg District again brimming with talent at this weight class.  State qualifier Mitcheff has moved to Elyria in a less than amicable parting, and convincingly won at Avon Lake.  Since then he has been inactive due to injury, but he is a real talent.  State qualifier Santiago is now at 125# for Lorain Southview (what a wrestle-off that would have been with Mitcheff) and he is very good.  Last year two-time state runner-up Horne defeated him 3-1 in the first round at Columbus.  Santiago has won at Riverside and then got caught early at Southview and pinned in the finals by Ysaguirre.   I also like Dreschel here--the best wrestler on the Sandusky squad.  Other possible qualifiers are Carver and Carpenter. 

State place-winner Ty Anthony looks to be the dominant figure at Massillon and has strong finalist possibilities.  He has already won at North Canton, Canal Fulton, and Brecksville and this experienced wrestler knows how to win.  Armstrong, Hunt’s workout partner at Collinwood, was a state semi-finalist last year before losing to Perez and finishing 5^th.  He beat Anthony 7-6, in that run, but I’m not convinced he can do it this year.  He was 2^nd to Rogers at Wadsworth losing a 1-0 yawner.  State qualifier Rogers is also here along with Evangelista, who has shown strong improvement.

There are three very good wrestlers at this weight class at Darby.  I rate two-time state qualifier Mossor at the top with big wins at Tiffin and Ryle and a 3^rd at the Top Gun -- losing to Cubberly.  Madsen also beat him at the Ohio Duals.  Hucle was 4^th last year at 119# beating Goode, Riggs, and McDiarmid in the process.  He has not seemed quite as sharp at this weight class, but, perhaps, as he did last year he’ll come on strong at the end. I’ve always had Sasfy out on the periphery, but I took notice when both Santiago and Dreschel fell to him at Toledo Waite.  Looks like he is ready to make a run at placement.

The district at Fairfield does not appear to have anyone you could label a sure placer.  Goode had a 6^th three years ago, but that was at 103#.   You never know with him.  Madsen beat him 14-1, but next time it could be completely different.  He has already won the CIT and SWOCA so don’t under-rate him.  Pierson is a state qualifier who should earn a return trip, while Rutledge, Braun, Woolf and Ashbrook are all possibilities. 

130 #

Projected Champion:  Sean nemec/ Clayton stark (st. edward)

Top Contenders

I think there is a good chance that this is the weakest weight class in Division I.  There does not appear to be substantial depth and, rather unusually for a middleweight, no one here placed last year.  It is interesting how weight classes seem to cycle up and down as do schools, districts, and divisional classifications.  For example shown below is a chart that examines the winning percentages of the 12 districts that fed into last year’s state competition.

2003 District Performance

(Ranked in order of championship rounds percentage)

      DISTRICT              CHAMPIONSHIP*                    CONSOLATION*           TOTAL*

1.   Elyria Catholic (III)                        .684                                         .541                             .628

2.   Galion (II)                           .585                                         .550                             .570

3.   Marion (III)                                     .561                                         .512                             .540

4.   Mentor (I)                           .559                                         .616                             .582

5    Perry (I)                                         .524                                         .486                            .509

6.   Firestone (II)                                 .480                                         .476                             .478

7.   Wilmington (I)                               .479                                         .370                             .429

8.   Coshocton (II)                               .475                                         .494                             .484

9.   Goshen (II)                                    .442                                         .481                             .460

10.  Darby (I)                                       .427                                         .531                             .479

11.  Waite (III)                          .341                                         .488                             .415

12.  Xenia (III)                          .321                                         .468                             .400

·         Does not include bouts that matched wrestlers from the same district

Clearly it was a good idea to split the Elyria Catholic District, which was extremely tough last year.  Note that Darby was the worst performing Division I district, but an influx of talent from Dayton should boost that winning percentage.

This report was written over a seven-day period beginning on January 17^th and ending on January 23^rd.  I began with Division III, which has the least current material in its analyses and then moved to Division II and finally Division I.  They are not written in order by weight class, because some of them are more perplexing, more confusing than others.  The worst type of weight class is where no one has the look or feel of a state champ.  That is why this weight class, 130#, is the very last to be written.   Frankly, I’m no closer to a conclusion than I was a month ago. I had hoped for some breakout performance, some unexpected piece of data, or even divine inspiration so as to come to a conclusion.  Didn’t happen. 

The obvious choice is Dustin Center who has been the most successful wrestler in the Southwest Area this year.  Undefeated so far he won at the SWOCA and Mason and has had things pretty much his own way.  Yet, I’m dubious.  He was 0-2 at the state meet and Santiago beat him 13-0 in the first consolation round.   It would be quite a turnaround to come back and win it all at 130#.  He is undefeated but he has not wrestled, as it turns out a tough schedule.  So I’ve look around.  Rieman placed two years ago and he lost to Madsen last year 1-0.  However, at the Top Gun he lost twice failing to score in either bout.

Spencer came to mind after winning at Brecksville, but Straughn beat him in the Mayfield 8 and he has never done real well in Columbus.  Nemec has wrestled a tough schedule and done well (5^th at the Ironman, 2^nd at Medina, undefeated at the Ohio Duals), but he is only a freshman and I’m thinking we might even find state runner-up Stark in that slot come tourney time. If so, maybe, he should be the favorite.

What to do?  I thought about the situation and said who would I pick if I didn't know what grade they were all in. Clearly, the choice would be Nemec. He's wrestled the toughest schedule and shown the greatest improvement of any of the contestants here. He lost to the Michigan superstar Reader 9-1 at Medina, but then beat him three weeks later 9-4 in the dual. I think three-time state placer Tyler Reichman is one of the best wrestlers Claymont ever produced and Nemec beat him 15-4 when Reichman moved up one weight class. And if Nemec doesn't wrestle it will be state runner-up Stark who put on a great late season show last year.

The deepest district is at Massillon.  Spencer is certainly, a top placement possibility, with that Brecksville win and a 2^nd (at 135#) at the Midwest Classic.  A state alternate last year he knows how to win.  I thought Oberdove would qualify last year, but a first-round upset sped him off-track, and he failed to get out.  He was 2^nd at Perrysburg (losing to Worley) and should be a factor.  State qualifier Bodnar and state alternate Noble are not only state caliber wrestlers, but could place at this class.  I especially, like the first-named, only a sophomore, who I think should be moving up to the next level.  Results like the 3^rd at Brecksville or the 6^th at the Top Gun should leave him very dissatisfied.  Obviously, the freshman Straughn has proven upset potential while Barrette and Dickey can win as well.

Center has not had much competition in his area.  I’ve got Cook, Cummins, Marsh, and Volkerding ranked, but more as qualifiers than as possible placers.  The fact that this group has not challenged Center has been part of my struggle in properly evaluating him.   Cook, for example, was 2^nd at the SWOCA and CIT, but lost his first two bouts at Brecksville.

State qualifiers Rieman and Williams head a Darby District that does not look particularly daunting.  Rieman, as I mentioned, seems very good at times, but needs consistency.  Williams qualified in Division II last year and went 2-2 at States.  Strength of schedule is a negative factor for him (sounds like the B.C.S. group), but he could be a player here.  Dowell is in that excellent Pickerington program and that should pay off in state qualification.

There are some intriguing combatants at Perrysburg. The freshman, Nemec, was a junior high state champion last year and has clearly gotten even better this year.  However, he'll have to hold off state runner-up Stark in the wrestling room and that may be far tougher than any bout he's likely to have till the last couple rounds of States. Mathews, a state alternate, won at Edison and was 3^rd at Brecksville at 135# (losing only to state placer Roberts).  He swept through the Ohio Duals and won at the Dies.  Still he has four losses including a 4-2 decision to Nicholson who will also be at Perrysburg.  He won at Solon, but got hammered by Spencer at the WRC.  Add in state qualifier Herzfeld, Lewis, Felton, and Reams and this is a solid district.  However, the key figure here will be Ramirez.  He was a state qualifier at 135# last year and went 1-2.  This year he dominated at Waite, but fell to 6^th at Medina after reaching the semi-finals.  He can beat anyone in this field, but I’m not sure he can sustain that level over an entire weekend.

135 #

Projected Champion: JASON johnstone (MASSILLON PERRY)

Top Contenders

Ohio has two of the best 135-pounders in the country both of whom have the initials J.J.  Who would win a match-up of these superstars was a heavily debated topic, it was, it seemed, a question that would have closure since they were both entered in the Ironman.  Then, and this is no disparagement of Pat Phelan, unbelievably Johnstone (the conqueror of Dustin Schlatter) was upset in the quarterfinals.  Jaggers went on to trounce Phelan and Johnstone crushed everyone else to finish 3^rd.  The next week Johnstone dominated at the Beast including a third period fall over Phelan.  Of course, just last week Jaggers struck quickly in the second period and went on to post a 6-3 win over Johnstone.  Johnstone was 2^nd to Mark Moos as a sophomore and then won at 125# last year defeating Horne in the finals.  He will be a strong favorite this year, but it is a formidable field that he will have to overcome--and, as we have seen, upsets are an integral part of this sport. 

The Massillon District is strong.  Johnstone, of course, is at the top of the list, but four other wrestlers have good credentials.  Spencer was 2^nd two years ago in Division III, and then was 4^th last year--losing a semi-final bout to eventual champ Enright, 5-4.  This year he has wrestled an aggressive schedule triumphing at Brecksville with wins over Canoles and Roberts.  At the Mayfield Big 8 he bumped up to 140# finishing 2^nd to the incomparable Schlatter.   Roberts is amazing.  He was 6^th two years ago and 3^rd last year (beating Madsen and losing to Horne 3-2).  He is a master of the down-tempo bout and it takes a magician to register a takedown.  This year he was 2^nd at Brecksville, but he is the kind of wrestler who can beat anyone--especially if he gets the first takedown.  State qualifier Canoles and Campbell complete the top quintet.  

Horne should dominate at Darby.  He now has twice been a state runner-up losing to Luce at 112# and Johnstone last year.  He started this season at 145#, but has gradually settled in at this weight class.  He was 3^rd at Medina losing to Johnstone 10-5 in the semi-finals in what could not have been one of the finer moments in seeding.  At the Ohio Duals he was apparently injured, but the assumption is that he will return shortly.  He and Johnstone should be in separate halves of the state meet, perhaps, setting up a rematch of last year’s final at 125#.  Most of the rest of this district is well below Horne. I’m wondering whether Davis, Stephens, or Stevenson have (low) placement possibilities.

This is one time when the Perrysburg District may not play a significant role in the final outcome of this weight class.  Of course, I could have made a similar statement about Phelan at the Ironman and look how wrong I would have been.  Clearly Phelan’s years at St. Edward have not been wasted.  He’ll forever be remembered for upsetting Johnstone in the quarterfinals at the Ironman, but he may wish to create a few more memories at Columbus.  Remember, after defeating Johnstone he reached the finals before losing to Jaggers.  He was 5^th at the Beast, but did not wrestle at Medina.   He looks to be the best of a weak field at this district.  Salem came from a 4^th place sectional finish to upset Herzfeld the in the first round and nearly qualified last year.  Lewis is good but the Northwest quartet of Herzfeld, Bork, Castillo, and Weisenstein must be accounted for. Add in the recently dropping Fowler (Sylvania Northview) and one might expect at least of the two qualifying berths to end up in the northwest.

Two-time state qualifier Sizemore heads the Southwestern contingent after a 5^th place finish last year.  A semi-finalist he lost to Cunningham 3-2 in a bout that almost cost us the dream match-up of Lang versus Cunningham.  He beat Linz (second best here) 3-1 to win the SWOCA, but was 5^th at Medina - - losing 15-0 to Blunk (easy to do if you’ve never met him) and Stevenson.  Duffy, just down from 140#, should be a factor here and, perhaps, Hayden and Mizener as well.

140 #

Projected Champion:  dustin schlatter (MASSILLON PERRY)

Top Contenders

The Schlatter odyssey continued this year with junior two-time state champion Dustin now competing for Massillon Perry.  What more can you say about this brother combination?  Last year I presented arguments that suggested that C.P. might be the most accomplished high school performer in Ohio wrestling history.  Dustin may be even better.  Coming off an injury that kept him out of the Ironman he, like Johnstone, torched the field at the Beast majoring Troy Tirapelle in the final round.  It appears that the Schlatters are destined to lose only in their sophomore year on their way to four state titles. His uncanny ability to anticipate and counter his opponent’s offensive actions is unbelievable, and he has a sixth sense when it comes to ferreting out possible weaknesses.  He is a college wrestler--and a good one--right now. Barring injury or divine intervention Schlatter should romp home with his 3^rd state title.

Schlatter’s ominous shadow has pretty much cleared out this weight class.  Some have opted for 135# --no treat with Johnstone and Horne there--while others have elected to stay at 145#.  Of course, for underclassmen or those just looking to place this provides an excellent opportunity to do so.  There is no clear-cut choice(s) for the runner-up position and even for placement.  Positions are up for grabs.

One of the positives about being at Massillon with Schlatter is that the 2^nd and 3^rd place winners are sure to be opposite him in the draw.  Both Kallai and Wright were state alternates last year and Berger can be very good.  All three of them placed at North Canton with Wright finishing 2^nd to Division II Rendinell. He was 3^rd at Medina losing to Hatzegai and beating Hoyt.  Berger placed at Brecksville while Kallai won at Wadsworth.  Becka, 2^nd at Perrysburg at 145#, looks like he’ll compete here.  If so he would certainly have state qualification chances, while Haxton and Hawk might equally be considered.

There are also some potential placers at Perrysburg.  Hatzegai is one of those St. Edward wrestlers who’s waited his turn and now has a chance to cash in on it.  He was runner-up to Schlatter at Medina beating Wright in the process.  However Kallai pinned him in the Ohio Duals.  He has to beat state placer Tomasone just to make the team.  Hoyt was 4^th at Medina losing twice to Wright by a total of three points, but won at Perrysburg snapping Shiff’s unbeaten season.  He then beat Spence (in overtime) to finish 3^rd at the CIT.  Add in Lewis and state qualifier Jonhenry - - if he is healthy - - and that a pretty solid quartet.  I also like Anderson with Kessler, Castillo, and Cummins long-shot possibilities, Patnode, down from 145#, might have slightly better chances than this group.

State qualifiers Dutton and Ciraky lead a nondescript Central District contingent. Dutton is really a 135-pounder, but when Horne moved down he went up.  He was 1-2 at the states last year.  Ciraky, now a sophomore, has remained at 140# and should be more of a factor this year.   Moore (Mount Vernon) certainly has state chances, but the last two spots might go to boys coming up from Dayton. 

State qualifiers Spence and Lyons are the only two in the Southwest who have qualified for Columbus at this class.  Spence pulled a first round upset taking out district champ Mike Walters in a 12-10 overtime thriller, and ended up going 2-2 in the tournament.  This year he beat Crenshaw, 2-0, to win the SWOCA, but was 4^th at the CIT and Brecksville.  Crenshaw is very good pinning Aber, for example, to win at St. Xavier.  I also like Salyers (runner-up at Kenston), Aber, Dowdy (unless he is at 135#) and Nickolai. 

145#

Projected Champion: TOMMY CUNNINGHAM (groveport)

Top Contenders

While I anticipated that this weight class would attract a strong field I was confident that Tommy Cunningham would come out on top.  His situation reminded me very much of what faced T. J. Enright last year.  What we have is someone who has clearly paid his dues (Cunningham has been 5^th, 3^rd, and 2^nd the last three years), and it kind of seems like it’s his turn to win.  To push the parallel a little further both had lost in the state finals to Ryan Lang in their junior year, and both have been superior performers throughout their career.  However, Cunningham has not had the senior year that everyone anticipated.  Marzec took him to the limit at Tiffin before succumbing 7-6, and then Ward pinned him at the State Duals followed by a 4-2 loss to Effner.  At the Top Gun he cruised into the semi-finals but had to default to Brulport and did not wrestle after that.  What is going on? How bad is he injured?  Suddenly it looks like Cunningham will be in a real dogfight with at least four or five top competitors.

Three of the top contenders and the two wrestlers who defeated him will compete at Perrysburg. All three of them captured a low place last year and each is an experienced senior.  Ward was 5^th last year beating Marzec in overtime.   He had 15 losses during his junior season, but wrestled very well at tourney time. This year injury and illness plagued his early season efforts, but he pinned Cunningham, Neumann, and Rager at the Ohio Duals, and went the distance with the top 145-pounder in the nation Brett Metcalfe.  Marzec lost 7-6 in the Tiffin finals and beat the excellent Davis to win the CIT; his one stumble was a loss to Slauterbeck at Oak Harbor.  Effner has had a great season.  He won at Edison and beat a tough field at Brecksville including wins over Baum, Davis, and White.  He, too, beat Cunningham at the Ohio Duals, but lost at the Dies to the unheralded Quallich.  Like Ward he was a district champ and ended up 6^th after losing to Agozzino in the semi-finals.  The champion at this district will be away from the other two (in all likelihood) at Columbus and from two of the other three district champs.  That would be a prize worth winning.

Cunningham won’t have it easy at his own district.  Lutz was a state semi-finalist last year at 135# and ended up 3^rd losing only to four-time champ Ryan Lang.  None of his four wins were terribly close.  He has wrestled a much weaker schedule than many of the other contenders, but as a senior it may also have kept him fresher.  State qualifier Newberry also returns so this will be quite a battle and a small preview of what will happen the following weekend.

One of the unknowns (at least to me) is the final status of Tyler Brewer.  He was 5^th last year at 140#--losing to Effner on criteria in an 8-8 quarterfinal struggle and then defeating him by a point for 5^th.  Not allowed to compete by the Colerain administration there have been court hearings to determine his status.  Should he wrestle he will be a factor at this weight class.  Brulport, also a state qualifier, could be at either Darby or Fairfield. He won at the GMVWA over two-time state placer Jake Knoop, and also won at Beavercreek.  At the Top Gun he met Cunningham in the semi-finals and won when Cunningham was forced to default, then beat Ramsey by a point to take the title.  After him the district is somewhat weaker.  The SWOCA champ Neumann was 3^rd at the CIT, but struggled against Ward and Effner.  Folks like Hall, Beall, and Castle might face the same outcome.

I see a quartet of potential qualifiers at Massillon.  State qualifiers Ramsey, Ranallo and Butler are all experienced, rugged competitors with low placement possibilities.  Ranallo won at Solon and Hudson and has moved up from Division II.  Ramsey was 2^nd at North Canton and 4^th at Medina losing to Metcalfe in the semis.  He was also 2^nd at the Top Gun losing to Brulport 5-4.  Butler qualified at 130# two years ago, but missed out last year.  Lutz beat him 8-0 in the Wadsworth final.  The fourth candidate is White who was 2^nd at Brecksville including a win over my Division III choice Jamison Moss.  A district semi-finalist last year he lost three straight bouts and failed to qualify. That shouldn’t happen again.  There are two unknowns here. One is Tortorici--the only three-time junior high state champ in history--who has had trouble sustaining his wrestling career at Euclid.  Very talented he could explode onto the scene at anytime.  Estadt was an unknown until he upset Effner in a dual meet and has since built on that with other victories.  Obviously he has upset potential. 

152 #

Projected Champion:  Mike Miller (Uniontown Lake)

Top Contenders

It seems highly probable that a Miller will win the state title.  The more appropriate question is which one.  It looks to me like it will be strictly a two-man contest between Mike Miller and Tim Miller who will know each other well by year’s end.

Mike Miller rather suddenly exploded onto the 145# scene about the middle of last year with a flurry of impressive victories.  Only a sophomore he was battling the very best-- and winning.  At the sectional and the district he defeated senior three-time placer (and my choice) Travis Kovach with some clutch wrestling.  He waltzed through the state bracket winning the title over Adam Melton, from Wadsworth, 9-5.  This year it’s been more of the same.  He’s won at North Canton and Wadsworth and is now rated as one of the top juniors in the country.  He has to be the favorite at this class.

His big rival will again be from nearby Wadsworth.  Tim Miller, also a junior, was 3^rd at 152# last year after finishing 6^th as a freshman.  His only state loss was a 5-4 semi-final defeat by Mike Ward.  This year he has lost twice to Mike Miller--in the finals at North Canton and Wadsworth--by about five points each time.  That is not an insurmountable obstacle especially since he will see him (very likely) at both the district and state level.  Beating someone of comparable quality four times in the same year is not an easy task, but Mike Miller should do it.  The issue might be looking ahead to such a confrontation and getting upset by a third party.

The two Millers should dominate the Massillon District.  A wild card here is O’Bryan who set a record with six first period falls while winning at Brecksville.  He also won at Solon; other possibilities are listed in the table with the tenacious Russo a possibility for qualification.  The big unknown is Howell, who won at Canal Fulton, ahead of Butzer, but who wrestles a very low-key schedule.

The Perrysburg District is not nearly as difficult as at most of the lower weight classes. What we have is parity, but at the low placement level.  State qualifier Zednik has already lost a half dozen times at this class and will struggle to qualify.  Holztrager, a coming star, Berdysz, and Spooner are possibilities, but no one here is assured of a state ticket.   With Kettinger certified at 152# there is some depth at the Toledo sectionals with Earle still probably the top guy in that area.  I’m guessing that a couple of wrestlers that are very low profile make it to the state tourney.

There will be some surprises at the Darby District.  Corey Maier, who I thought would do very well at 160#, has dropped to this class.   A state alternate last year he won at the higher weight at Wadsworth and should be the top man at this district.  He certainly has an opportunity for a high place.  Nichols is probably next best and the boys from Pickerington (North/South/East or Central whatever) always do well at the end of the year.  Nichols was 4^th at Medina and lost only to Tim Miller at the Ohio Duals.  State qualifier Popham has not seemed to get much better.  He got hammered at the Gorman and I think his qualification chances may be in jeopardy.  Strater and Paplacyzk are clearly other possibilities and there is a bevy of good 152’s in the Southwest.

The deepest field is in the Southwest.  Heading that group is the dangerous Monk who just missed placement last year at this class.  He was 3^rd at the SWOCA losing to Clemens and 3^rd at Brecksville.  I think he has been fighting the battle of the scale, but the extra pounds may alleviate that issue.   There is a quartet of impressive wrestlers nipping at his heels.  State qualifier Clemens has moved to Beavercreek and responded with wins at the GMVWA (including a win over Mauro) and Beavercreek with a 2^nd at the SWOCA--defeating Monk but losing to an Indiana champion.  State qualifier Goebel moves up from Division II and should not miss a beat.  He beat the tough Smith to win at Sycamore.  He was 2-2 at the state meet last year.  Smith has been just a shade below this trio, but has the ability to qualify.   He needs a breakout tournament to build his confidence.  State qualifier Mauro and Myers are also very good and the only way they can all qualify is if a couple have a chance to compete at Darby.

160#

Projected Champion:  steve luke (MASSILLON PERRY)

Top Contenders

I have always taken particular interest in wrestlers who start out as relatively little guys with great success, and are able to sustain that success as they rapidly grow into big guys.   Wrestlers like Tommy Rowlands, Eddie Potokar and Tom Cousinequ come immediately to mind and I’m sure my faithful readers will think of others.  A wrestler that fits into that category is Steve Luke who was a state runner-up to Mark Moos at 112# as a freshman and two years later won his second state title at 160#.  Not many wrestlers are four time finalists--certainly all of the four-time state champs and, maybe, half again that number who’ve lost at least once while making the finals four times.  Luke rated by just about everybody, as the best 160 pounder in the country should reach that target in February.   This year he won the Ironman, the Beast, and the MIT, including a win over Division II state champ Chris Tripp.  Luke will be an excellent college wrestler. He is skilled in every aspect of the sport and is as comfortable on the mat as on his feet.  Last year his closest state bout was a 9-1 major decision in the finals, but he has consistently shown that he can win the close bouts when he needs to.  There are some wrestlers at this weight class who in a normal year would have legitimate title aspirations, but who can only hope for a miracle this year. 

The battle at this class is for 2^nd place and there are a number of possibilities--though none of them are at Massillon.  State qualifier Haas has moved back down to 160# as has Richardson and that should help both of their qualification chances.  However, I think Pacetti might turn out to be second best here.  He was a state alternate last year losing a one-point bout to qualify.  This year he was 2^nd at Perrysburg losing a close bout to Plowman.  People like Immarino, Warner, Glavan, and Wiedenthal are all possibilities, but after the top trio it doesn’t make a lot of difference.

There is more depth at Perrysburg.  Chuck Koz was a district champ last year and went 2-2 at Columbus losing to eventual champ Foster and Kuhner.   His highest profile match was in the dual meet with Graham where he wrestled last and had to hold off Schlatter for Ed’s to win the meet.  That he did--losing, of course, but only a regular decision--and twice taking Schlatter down.  This year he was 4^th at the Beast (after not placing at the Ironman) and 3^rd at the MIT losing to Luke in the semis, 7-4.  He has been hot recently and has finalist potential.  I think Plowman has supplanted state qualifier Reitmeier as second best at this district beating him 3-2 at both Waite and Perrysburg.  Soltis and Walling (North Ridgeville) are other possibilities here, but this is not an overly crowded district. 

State placer Mathias is back at this weight class where he finished 4^th last year.   After first-round loss he won four consolation bouts against a quartet of good wrestlers.  Love defeated him at the Midwest Classic, but I still think Mathias will prove to be superior at the district level.  Love, also a state qualifier, is second best here.  He went 1-2 at 152# last year and, certainly, has low placement chances.  The remainder of this district is in disarray with the district clearly to be the sorting out process.

There are some strong performers at Fairfield.  The best of the group is Berling who had great back-to-back weeks over the holidays.  He won the SWOCA from the #3 seed beating Conley in the process and then was 2^nd at Brecksville including a fall over McMullen losing only to Division III choice Whelan.  He qualified at 152# last year, but got beat by Tim Miller in the first round and couldn’t come back.   Griffin is also a returning state qualifier but he was only 5^th at the SWOCA and 3^rd at the GMVWA, losing early to Wiley. He did, however, win at Fairfield.  Wiley has moved up several notches and will battle with Conley as a possible finalist at this district.  Conley looked good at the Ohio Duals except for 34-second fall by Luke.  Lobes, Unzicker, and Bradberry are also in the hunt here.  The first named took a 6-5 decision from Conley early in the year and also won at Mason. 

171 #

Projected Champion:  ADAM MELTON (WADSWORTH)

Top Contenders

There are a lot of question marks at 171#.  A number of them have to do with size, as some of the top contenders are probably a better fit at 160#, but have rejected that possibility because of the dominance of Steve Luke.  Nonetheless, there are some outstanding contenders at this weight class who have had sparkling careers to this point.  In my mind there are four top contenders three of whom, at a minimum, finished in the top four at Columbus, and three of whom exit the Massillon Perry District.  Interestingly, they were all at different weight classes last year (135#, 145#, 152#, and 189#)--none of them where they’ll be competing at this year.

Let’s look at Massillon first.  Melton was the state runner-up at 145# last year, losing to Mike Miller in the finals on his second trip to Columbus.  This year he won at North Canton (pinning Hackett) and Wadsworth (over Jonhenry).  He was undefeated at the Ohio Duals and beat Ward, 3-2, to win at Mayfield.  An excellent technician with a load of experience, he may be the best of this trio.  Ward was also a state runner-up (I told you this was a dynamite group) at 152#, losing in overtime to Foster.  He has looked a little sluggish to me, but he was 2^nd at Brecksville (barely beating Sen and then losing to Caponi) and 2^nd at Mayfield.  He did win the Midwest Classic.  He got stronger as the year progressed in 2003, and may well do so again this year.   The big question mark is Murray.  He was 4^th two years ago at 125#, and 6^th last year at 135#--losing by two to Cunningham and three to Lutz.  I thought he would be primed for a state title run in 2004, but I never expected to see him at 171#.  He’s missed time because of injury, and then lost to both Jonhenry and Hackett by two points to finish 4^th at the Top Gun. He’ll have to do better to qualify with state qualifiers Rose and Anthony at this district.  That’s five state caliber wrestlers and only four state openings.

Legg is the other top contender, but again, as with Murray I’m not sure what to expect.   He was 5^th at this class two years ago and then was my pick at 189# last year.  Probably a little small for that weight, he won at his district, but lost in the quarterfinals to eventual champ Lukens, 3-1, and then to Adkins, in overtime, and failed to place.  He has been at 189# all year and I was very surprised when he certified here.  A hard worker, he should look a whole lot bigger than the lighter weights who have moved up.  This is another strong district.  State qualifier Jonhenry, state alternate DiDona, and the rapidly improving Sen are all here.  Jonhenry was 3^rd at the Top Gun, losing a 6-5 squeaker to state champion Tripp.  He was a sectional champ last year, but was unable to compete at the district level.  Sen came very close to qualification last year, losing his go-to-state bout by a point.  This year he won at Avon Lake and, after losing that 3-2 bout to Ward, finished 3^rd at Brecksville. The Toledo trio of Brubaker, Whitner, and Benner could also make inroads at this class. Still, I think they are four or five points behind the top quartet at this district.

Those are two very demanding districts, but it is the opposite situation at Darby--at least in terms of the Columbus area contenders.  The quartet of Peterson, Place, Trujillo, and Rice look to be the best, and they will not match up well with any of the other districts.  I’m guessing the Dayton area 189’s are hoping to use the Darby conduit as their best hope to reach the States.

There are a lot of unknowns at Fairfield.  That is somewhat the case because I have not collected as much information as I would have liked from several schools that appear to have contenders at this class.  Almost no one here has much district experience, as there was an almost complete turnover in participants from last year.  In terms of consistency Klaserner may be the top choice.  He was 2^nd at the SWOCA, 6^th at Brecksville, and 3^rd at the CIT.  Still he failed to win a single district bout at this weight last year, and Sen crushed him 11-3 at Brecksville.  Former state qualifier Butler was 3^rd at the SWOCA (losing to Klaserner) and has great upside potential.  I worry about his consistency.  The Dayton area boys--Moore, Broering, and Tecmire--are all about equivalent while Shaw, who won at Sycamore and Honnerlaw have not faced the tough weekend one can expect at district time.   The unknown is Elam, who is listed at 22-0 with almost all his victories by fall.  If he is for real he could vault to the top of this district.

Let me walk you through the final analysis of my top foursome of Melton, Legg, Ward, and Murray.  First to go is Murray.  He’s had injury problems, up five weight classes, and was unimpressive at the Top Gun.  Second to be dismissed is Ward (sounds like one of those reality shows) because of his loss to Melton and sluggishness at Brecksville.  This leaves just two, but Legg is next out.  He’s down a weight class from last year (tough cut) and lost for me last year.  Thus Melton has to be the top choice.

189 #

Projected Champion:  JUSTIN DOBIES (GARFIELD HTS.)

Top Contenders

Last year I drew parallels between the career paths of Ryan Lukens and his older brother Nick.   I noted that Nick had exploded at the end of his junior year to surprise everyone with a state title and idly wondered whether Ryan would continue their parallel trajectories and also win as a junior.  Much to my surprise that’s exactly what happened as Lukens swept to the title beating my choice Legg by a takedown, and then avenging a district loss to Clingner in the finals.  Now comes the tough part.  As a senior Nick faced a far more competitive field and did not place with Pliev winning and Camargo finishing 2^nd.  Ryan faces the same issues.  While 189# is not overly strong it is certainly better than it was last year when it was the weakest class in Division I.  Dobies has already beaten Lukens 12-5, but that, maybe, was just a fluke.  However, two more losses at the CIT (to Fyda and Gavlak) makes it look a little more serious.  However, this may not signal the abdication of a state champ.  The Lukens are a surprising bunch --consider that the father, “Big Bill”, is in the St. X Hall of Fame, but his kids go to Moeller-- and the scores will be much closer next time. 

Dobies has had a great year with just a tiny blemish in the last week.  He won at Edison and Brecksville and then beat Lukens at the Ohio Duals.  His only loss was in the finals at the Dies to Saniuk (Division II) by a narrow 1-0 margin.  A district champ and state semi-finalist last year, he finished 4^th after a narrow loss to Clingner.  He leads the Perrysburg District along with state qualifier Carpenter, who has really improved.  Yes, Dobies beat him at Brecksville, but Carpenter has been exceptional all year.  This duo stand above a boatload of other contenders, such as Greene, Russ Koz, and Morrison.

It’s an extremely crowded field at Masillon.  I count ten rankable names among this unwieldy group and the winnowing process will be severe.  It’s difficult to know where to start.  There are five returning state qualifiers, but there are no guarantees here.  Chine was a state semi-finalist at 171#, winning 13-5 and 16-3 in the first two rounds.  Then he was pinned by Malinowski and Simmons before righting the ship and getting 5^th.  He has not yet been as good at 189#.  He was 4^th at Brecksville, losing to Dobies and Dye, and then was 5^th at the Top Gun including a loss to Moore.  Roman went two-and-out at 160# last year and is up two classes.  He won at North Canton--whipping Zalaiskalns in the final--but then got crushed by Carpenter at Brecksville and did not place.  He won over a weaker field at Canal Fulton, but that did not do much to clarify his status.  McConnell qualified at 215# last year on a 30 second rideout and gave Busson a tough first round bout, but did not place.  He’s down at 189# making room for Dominick at 215#.  He does not wrestle a strong schedule, but he can be very good.  He qualified after finishing 4^th in his sectional.  Moore is one to watch.  He wrestles for a Senate school in Cleveland and he is very good.  Last year he drew Lukens in the first round, and did not wrestle his best, but then won two consolation bouts before falling in his placement bout.   He was 3^rd at the Top Gun, losing only to a top Pennsylvania wrestler.  Esarco qualified in Division II last year, but will need to be at peak levels to do so again.   He was 5^th at the Dies.  Ambruster missed state qualification by one point last year and may well be better than some of the returning qualifiers.  Palmieri and Rion are also possibilities, but Zalaiskalns may be the top choice in this non-qualifying group.  With so many possibilities the Patroness of Pairings will play a large role in the outcome.

I thought Reinhart was probably the best at the rather uninspired Darby District, but recent losses to Koz and to Carpenter have left me wondering.  Then Fyda comes along at the CIT and beats Lukens 9-2 and Hickey 15-11.  Wow!  Still he was a state alternate at 171# last year so this is not entirely weird.  My question is, “What next?”  Yelic is also good at Darby, the state alternate at 189# last year, and Murray might be in the group as well. 

While Lukens might be mired in a little mini-slump there is no one in his district to take advantage of it.  Guys like Stacy or Myers are on the periphery of a low place, but this group--other than Lukens--is not keeping the rest of the state’s 189’s up at night. 

215 #

Projected Champion:  LUKE BUSSON (WADSWORTH)

Top Contenders

There is a very unbalanced distribution of power at this weight, which has the potential to make for a very asymmetrical state bracket sheet.  There are seven state qualifiers (if Kent decides not to move up to the heavyweight class) competing at Massillon Perry, including four of the top six contenders.   It’s a group that has taken turns defeating one another--often by the narrowest of margins--and one can only guess at the order of finish and qualifiers out of that district.  Once we factor in Huddle and Adkins it is likely to be a real free-for-all in Columbus with the 30-second tiebreakers in use all too often.  Part of the problem is that neither the Transitive Property, nor the Law of Consistency will hold here.  By transitivity one would hope that if “A” defeats “B” and “B” beats “C” then “A” will defeat “C” (Gillmor’s Law).  It doesn’t work that way at 215#.  Also inoperative is consistency so that if “A” beats “B” he can replicate that result in the future.  For example, Burger and Noga, from adjacent communities have wrestled a number of times with no one ever winning two in a row. 

Noga is the highest returning placer, but that doesn’t mean much considering how close in ability these boys are.  Last year he got blazingly hot at the end of the year, finishing 2^nd to Koz at the district, and then taking advantage of a great draw winning his first three state bouts 15-6, 3:51, and 17-5.  Koz pinned him in the state finals, but state runner-up had to sound good to him.  Busson, also a district champ, drew Koz a round earlier than Noga and ended up 3^rd, beating Burger and Trusnik back-to-back on Saturday morning.   Trusnik lost to Burger in the first round, but then won four consolation bouts to get 4^th.  Burger beat McConnell early in the consolation rounds and ended up 5^th.  So we have the boys who finished runner-up through fifth place at this one district plus state qualifier Dominick and, maybe, state qualifier Kent, who looks like he might go at 275#.  Who can blame him?

This year it’s been just as jumbled and I’m not going to go through it all.  For example, Burger pinned Noga to win at Solon, but lost to him in the dual meet.  At Brecksville, Burger beat Trusnik in overtime in the semis, then Noga defeated Trusnik, 7-6, for 3^rd.  Three of these boys exit the same sectional so the district draw could get ugly for someone like Trusnik.

Adkins is another possible champ.  He was 5^th last year at 189#, losing to the eventual finalist Clingner 10-9 in two overtimes.   What worries me is his long absence from the St. Edward line-up.  He is a big man with lots of movement and technique.  He could well be rusty after missing more than a month.  His district is far easier with Garafalo and Faught probably next best from the Cleveland sectionals and McKenzie and Horst from the Toledo ones.  LeStrange is ranked first by some in that area, but failed to place at the CIT.  Schaffner could be the surprise package--winning at Marion Harding and getting 4^th at the Top Gun.   Watson and Kowalka are other possibilities from that area.

The sixth candidate is the powerful Huddle, and he confuses me.  He was 4^th in the Darby District last year at this class, but was the only one of the four qualifiers to place.  In fact he handily defeated his first two opponents (scoring 29 points), one of whom was Burger, and then lost three straight bouts by a combined score of 46-9.  Was he hurt, discouraged, sick?  I don’t know, but he beat Burger 16-8 and then lost to him 17-2 in the span of little more than 24 hours.  This year he has been super--at least until the Top Gun, winning by huge scores.  However, Dibell upset him 11-9 and he finished 3^rd.   Which Huddle will show up in Columbus?  There are some other solid wrestlers at this district, like McDuffie, Klein, and Jabbie, but they are a step below Huddle.

The Southwest District has nice depth, but no upper-tier stars likely to reach the finals.  Stegeman was a state qualifier at 275# last year, but missed the state meet due to injury (his sub took 4^th).  This year he is at 215# and has had solid success.  He beat the Mater Dei (Indiana) star to win at the SWOCA, 5^th at Brecksville (losing to Division II, Thomas, and Trusnik).  He handed Bachna his first loss while winning the CIT.  Quehl has been his top rival in the Cincinnati area finishing 3^rd at the SWOCA.  I was impressed with his 5-0 win over Konyesni (Adkins’ backup), the Medina runner-up, although he did fail to place at the CIT.  Two other candidates are Lovy --a consistent placer--and Muldoon who was 3^rd at the CIT.   A little further north, state qualifier Zink is pre-eminent, at least in Division I.  Huelsman is also good with Owsley kind of a wild card possibility.

HVY.

Projected Champion:  KIRK NAIL (DAVIDSON)

Top Contenders

While there is better than average depth in the heavyweight classification I view this as a titanic struggle of two excellent heavyweights.  In one corner is the very talented and athletic Tony Johnson, who has finished 3^rd and 5^th the past two years.  A great free-styler he was favored by many last year and went through the year undefeated, including a dramatic district win over Pat Barrentine.  However, in Columbus the best 4-minute heavyweight in the state, Derrick Bendau, caught him early and often, and then held on for a 14-7 win--gaining revenge for his upset loss a year earlier.  Nail, on the other hand, has been a work in progress.  A very light heavyweight, he did not qualify as a tenth-grader, but last year, greatly improved, he captured the Darby District.  At Columbus he lost to Barrentine, defeated the dispirited Johnson in overtime, and took a strong 3^rd.  This year both were entered at Medina, but did not meet.  The very talented Adam Hoppel (Division II) defeated Johnson, 5-2, and then Nail dominated him 6-1.

There will be no seeding at this weight class so if both boys are district champs there will be a one in three chance that their meeting will come in the semi-finals.  That would be a shame since they’ll deserve center stage for their second confrontation.  I think Nail will win--very likely in overtime, and probably in that pathetic 30-second tiebreaker.  Nail gives up twenty pounds and Johnson is more mobile, but Nail has a focus and determination difficult to defeat.  He is just so mentally tough that he refuses to lose.  I also think his ability to ride will be important and so I’m giving him the very tiniest of edges.

There is nobody at Darby that will be able to match Nail.  Hopkins, Litchfield, and Burke are journeyman performers, capable of an upset, but unlikely to sustain a series of victories over top tier competitors.

Johnson will face a deeper, more talented group, but these are all wrestlers he has dominated for the past three years.  The 6’7” Marshall is probably second best, but Johnson pinned him in the finals of the SWOCA.   State qualifier Smith returns if he is not transported to Darby, but he does not have either the size or speed to neutralize Johnson.   Both these boys have solid placement potential.  I don’t want to overlook Tull who was 3^rd at the SWOCA, 1^st at the CIT, and undefeated at the Ohio Duals.  Benton, McKendry and Wood are capable performers who would need only one mini-upset (unless it was Johnson they beat) to qualify.  This will be a tough district to draw into for first round action,

Last year I completely undervalued Wyper who proceeded to become a district finalist and win two state bouts last year.  In fact, he probably has the best tools and the most legitimate hope of defeating the top duo.  His biggest problem has been heavyweights with the last name of Smith.  He lost his state placement bout to Joey Smith (now graduated) last year, and his two defeats this year were to Dan Smith and Chris Smith.  He should have little trouble at the district level since he is well above the best of the competitors here, and no one named Smith will be in the bracket.  His best hope would be to win here and hope that both Johnson and Nail are on the side of the draw.  One upset then, which he is certainly capable of, would then give him the title.  Brubeck, Johnson, McKenzie, and especially state qualifier Fitzpatrick are top hopes for qualification.

Certainly the most crowded district is at Massillon, but the one least likely to have a finalist at the state level.  It’s a district that is ten-deep at heavyweight with four of them previous state qualifiers.   State qualifier Wiley might be the leader here.  He won at both North Canton and the Top Gun and was 5^th at Medina, losing 11-5 to Nail.  State qualifier Fred Johnson (yes, a third such named) is a devastating pinner and does a great job despite a weak schedule and few workout partners.   He won a state bout last year after drawing eventual champ Barrentine in the first round.  State qualifier Kent won two bouts at states last year while at 215#.  He started the year at that weight class (and is certified there), but has been at 275# since then.  He may want to avoid that crowd at 215# in his district and use his strength and mobility to beat heavyweights.  Cybulski qualified two years ago, but just hasn’t seemed to get much better.  He is, again, in danger of staying home for the second consecutive year.   Porter and Dumas are huge heavyweights who can, to use Geoff Sindelar’s technical term, “squish” anybody.  They are very dangerous.  That leaves a quartet of heavyweights who could probably qualify at Darby or Perrysburg, but most fight the numbers battle here.  State qualifier MdInturff has been excellent in high-pressure situations, and will probably get out.  Safran beat Fitzpatrick to win at Brecksville and Schalmo is at the same level.  Platzer has great bloodlines, but he’ll need to be at 110% to qualify here.

TEAMS

1.     St. Edward                       They do not have the four or five sure finalists they had last year as they look for the seventh consecutive team title (and 20^th overall).  With Massillon Perry almost sure to put 100 points on the board, Ed’s has to find a way to top that.   They have no assured finalists this year, but Palmer and Madsen are their best hopes.  They are going to have to grind out place winners at seven or eight weight classes with folks like Koz, Ward, Phelan, and Adkins showing leadership.  The winning points might come from the freshmen Nemec and Harris.

2.     Massillon Perry                They do have three sure champs in Johnstone, Schlatter, and Luke.  Hartley could also be a finalist, but who else can help?  If Straughn and Rini can score at the state level Ed’s won’t be looking in the rear view mirror seeing Perry--  they’ll be right alongside them.  The last time a public school won the team title was 1977, so it’s been a long wait. 

3.     Wadsworth                       Another excellent public school program with possible champs at three weight classes and potential placers at three more.  However, there is no upside here, third is the best they can do.

4.     Garfield Hts.                     Putting them this high might be a stretch, especially after their performance at the Dies.  Still, Dobies should be at least a finalist while Effner might make it to that level as well.  If the lightweights can score then this placement is a strong possibility.

5.     Mayfield                            They were runners-up last year and another year in the Top Five would be awesome.  They have to count very heavily on the Spencer twins and Ward. They’d like to get additional points from Palmieri, Thomas, Catalona or Jianetti.  That will be difficult.

6.     Lakota East                     Johnson should be a finalist at 275#, while Sizemore and Conley could be scorers.  If they can get help from the Piersons and Hall they might move up a place. 

7.     Groveport                         There are only two state scorers here--Cunningham and Mossor--but between they should exceed 40 points. With a lot of scoring by the top trio of teams and diffuse level of talent elsewhere, this should be enough to make the Top Ten.

8.     Elyria                                 Perez and Mitcheff (the assumption being he is healthy and able to go) should be good scorers, while Sen may surprise at 171#.  If Faught or Fitzpatrick can help out, they might even better this placement.

9.     Marysville                         Lutz and Hucle should be solid scorers, though I’m a little worried about the latter, and Maier will be a surprise placer at 152#.

10.      Mentor                              They have lots of opportunities, but whether the firepower is there is still to be answered.  Burger and Lerer are returning placers, while Cybulski has state experience.  O’Bryan and, maybe, Glavan could help, and the sophomore Estadt could be a big surprise.

Powered by counter.bloke.com