The Ultimate Fan Guide to the 2010 Division 3 High School Wrestling Forecast by Brian Brakeman
Dan Cosimi - The Ohio Wrestling Network

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NUW

2010 HIGH SCHOOL WRESTLING FORECAST (39th ANNUAL EDITION)
Brian F. Brakeman
January 26, 2010

Division 3

125 pounds

All-Ohio
State Champion: OC-1 Logan Stieber - Senior - Monroeville High School - Monroeville, Ohio [2009:D3-125-1st, 2008:D3-119-1st, 2007:D3-103-1st]
2nd place: OC-2 Westley Lee - Senior - Elmwood High School - Bloomdale, Ohio [2009:D3-119-Q]
3rd place: HE-1 Josh Coulter - Senior - Cardington-Lincoln High School - Cardington, Ohio [2009:D3-125-Q]
4th place: HE-2 Carl Moody - Sophomore - Nelsonville-York High School - Nelsonville, Ohio [2009:D3-119-8th]
5th place: HE-3 Adam Ankrom - Junior - Bloom-Carroll High School - Carroll, Ohio [2009:D3-112-Q, 2008:D3-103-A]
6th place: MH-1 Alec Jacober - Junior - Beachwood High School - Beachwood, Ohio [2009:D3-119-A]
7th place: HE-4 Tyler Reichle - Junior - West Jefferson High School - West Jefferson, Ohio
8th place: MH-2 Drew Liechty - Senior - Fairview High School - Fairview Park, Ohio

Qualifiers
9. OC-3 Alex Glenn - Senior - Otsego High School - Tontogany, Ohio [2009:D3-119-Q, 2008:D3-112-A, 2008:D3-103-A]
10. MH-3 Josh Kapper - Junior - Manchester High School - Akron, Ohio
11. KF-1 Josh Cioca - Senior - Blanchester High School - Blanchester, Ohio [2009:D3-119-Q]
12. MH-4 Matt Dobben or Neil Roff - Freshman - Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy - Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio
13. KF-2 Steve Frederickson - Senior - Dixie High School - New Lebanon, Ohio [2009:D3-112-A]
14. KF-3 Craig Parker - Junior - Mohawk High School - Sycamore, Ohio
15. KF-4 Aaron Merschman - Junior - St. John High School - Delphos, Ohio
19. OC-4 Cory Mancuso - Sophomore - Edison High School - Milan, Ohio

Challengers
16. MH-5 Jeremy Walden - Junior - St. Peter Chanel High School - Bedford, Ohio
17. KF-5 Cody Laney - Sophomore - Hicksville High School - Hicksville, Ohio [2009:D3-119-A]
18. HE-5 Corey Lump - Junior - Paint Valley High School - Bainbridge, Ohio [2009:D3-119-A]
20. MH-6 Tanner Lawrence - Senior - Garfield High School - Garrettsville, Ohio
21. HE-6 Josh Beltz - Senior - East Knox High School - Howard, Ohio
22. OC-5 Oliver Stuckey - Sophomore - Archbold High School - Archbold, Ohio
23. HE-7 Jedd Neer - Senior - Northmor High School - Galion, Ohio
24. MH-7 Nick Hermann - Sophomore - Waterloo High School - Atwater, Ohio
25. OC-6 Kyle Stacey - Sophomore - Liberty Center High School - Liberty Center, Ohio
26. KF-6 Jamey Perdue - Sophomore - Reading High School - Reading, Ohio
27. KF-7 Mathias Klausing - Sophomore - Ottawa-Glandorf High School - Ottawa, Ohio [2009:D3-119-A]

There is always a tinge of sadness when I watch one of the truly greats compete for the last time at the state tournament. It doesn't happen every year because my standard for truly great is frighteningly high and met by very few. However, this will be successive years with David Taylor graduating last year and now Logan in a few months. Their careers have had a similar trajectory with David perhaps more charismatic and Logan incredibly consistent. I televised Logan's only loss - the first week of his varsity career - and I still remember Jeff Jordan, sounding worried about Taylor's match-up with a freshman. It was difficult to believe that Taylor was ever worried about an opponent but Stieber was the one to be concerned about. Since then he is undefeated, barring disaster a four-time champ and the holder of the Ohio record for consecutive wins - recently he just won his 150th in a row. Doing a few calculations shows that if you had a 99% probability of winning against every opponent, the probability of winning 150 in a row is just a shade over 22%. In fact, you would have to have a probability of over 99.5% to have even a 50% chance of compiling such a steak. Still, Stieber, who was third in the Senior Nationals, has always been special and I'll miss him and his grandfather (who is always smiling) in the coming years.

Owens Community College District
Performers like Stieber have a knack for clearing out weight classes and yes, this will not be a strong field at 125 pounds. That's particularly true at Owens where Lee stands out at second best. He was a district runner-up to Hunter Stieber last year but had a tough draw losing to high state placers Harbert and Barlow and ending up 1-2. He was a quarterfinalist at Medina and ended up sixth losing a couple of close bouts at the end. He has strong placement possibilities. State qualifier Glenn has moved up one weight class after a district third last year, followed by a 0-2 performance at Columbus. State alternate Laney should get to qualify this year after his heartbreaking 10-8 overtime loss in his go-to-state bout. That leaves the sophomore Mancuso (2nd at Edison), Stuckey and Stacey as possibilities.

Heath District
A district that packs some punch is at Heath. I count three returning state qualifiers, along with some excellent new talent. Coulter qualified at this weight class last year but lost a hard fought battle to eventual state third place finisher Vargo in the first round and couldn't come back. He was, most recently seventh at the Top Gun and should be toward the top of the podium on Saturday night. Moody had a district fourth and caught Hancock in the first round. But he bounced back with wins over Glenn and Branham (who had pinned him the previous week) to get a state place. Ankrom is also a returning state placer making for a formidable trio atop this district. The one to watch is Reichle. He had weight issues last year but he has settled in very nicely at this weight class. He looked good at the State Duals, pinning Frederickson and decisioning Widder. Lump and Beltz were both one win from State qualification and have been at least as good this year. Add in Neer and the freshman, Kinnemond (Shadyside) and you have a real competition.

Kettering Fairmont District
The Fairmont District has a lot of wrestlers who have been on the verge of state qualification but haven't quite made it. Two exceptions are Cioca and Parker who have crossed that state threshold. Cioca was a first round district loser by fall to Klausing last year but came all the way back to the go-to-state bout. There, wrestling Klausing once more, he won 15-0 and ended 4th. Unfortunately he drew Heminger and Lee back-to-back at Columbus. He was fourth at Edgewood, losing by a point to Frederickson. Parker qualified two years ago out of Owens but is in that sectional that got switched to Fairmont. He was second this year at Tiffin, losing to Division 1 state placer Marzec, 3-2. Fredericksburg, Klausing and Perdue were all one bout from qualification last year. Fredericksburg might be the most advanced of this trio. Aaron Merschman was 1st at Marion Harding and third at the Allen East this year and may also be a higher probability state qualifier. Cioca beat him at last year's district, 2-1. However, the dark horse candidate here is Cole Smith who won handily at Elyria Catholic.

Maple Heights District
As currently constituted, this is probably the second weakest weight class at Maple Heights The best here is probably the little Jacober who has also been at 130 pounds. He has been second at Beachwood and Hudson and third at Southview, while giving up at least two weight classes. For whatever reason he loses no weight and thus must wrestle substantially bigger boys than he is. Nonetheless, he is a great technician and remains very successful despite the strength disadvantage. He looks smaller than Dronzek, their 112-pounder. He was a state alternate last year and should qualify this time. Kapper won at Woodmore and was third at Manchester. Like Jacober he was one win from qualification last year, losing to Spreng, 3-1. The freshman, Dobben, has been really getting better and it came together at the Top Gun where was 6th, losing 7-5 to former state runner-up Cody Neff. That leaves Liechty, Walden, Lawrence and maybe Hermann to battle for state berths.