The Ultimate Fan Guide to the 2010 Division 3 High School Wrestling Forecast by Brian Brakeman
Dan Cosimi - The Ohio Wrestling Network

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NUW

2010 HIGH SCHOOL WRESTLING FORECAST (39th ANNUAL EDITION)
Brian F. Brakeman
January 26, 2010

Division 3

Teams

For most wrestlers and coaches a trip to the state tournament revolves primarily around individual excellence and achievement. For a lucky few, however, the team competition becomes the second critical aspect of this event and some would argue overshadows even the personal side of this tournament.

That is why I found the Division 3 team competition so fascinating. In last year's report I predicted that Monroeville could not score more than 115 points and therefore that was the target score for Troy Christian. My view then was that Troy Christian had a high probability of bettering that mark and hence winning a third consecutive team title. As it turned out, Troy Christian took some major hits as Thome, the pick at 135 pounds, Campbell and Akins won a total of two bouts and scored a total of 4.5 points. Despite some strong efforts by others they finished with 113 points, two points less than the magic number. However, Monroeville failed to take advantage of that slippage. They had scored 115 points in 2008 but surprisingly the "Monroeville Four" despite going 16-0 scored four fewer points in 2009. Even with the fifth qualifier Clark getting them a consolation win and an unexpected point, they finished at 112 points. It was the second time in three years that Troy Christian won a state team title by less than three points.

Again the key factor was bonus points. In 2008 the "Monroeville Four" amassed 27 bonus points but generated four less in 2009 when they were critical to team success. There were seven bouts where Monroeville wrestlers collected back points at least three times (or more) and yet settled for four technical falls and three major decisions (13-2, 12-1 and 13-0). Somehow the sense of urgency to collect falls (down from ten in 2008 to seven in 2009) never appeared. Chris Phillips pinned his opponents in both the semifinals and finals but did not in the first two rounds, while Logan Stieber won consecutive 16-1 bouts in the last two rounds when two falls would have meant at least a team title tie. One other point: I said in my text that it made little difference whether Hunter Stieber competed at 112 pounds or 119 pounds but I was wrong. He scored four fewer points at the higher weight than in 2008 and recorded only one fall (in the finals) at 119 pounds.

On the other hand it could be argued that Troy Christian was far more vigilant and aggressive in capturing bonus points with a far less dominating squad. They had 8 major decisions, all of which were by margins of ten points or less and three that were exactly won by eight points. A key contributor was Kyle Keplinger who twice captured major decisions in the consolation round generating the eventual margin for an outright team title.

State Champion

1. Monroeville High School - Monroeville, Ohio
Assuming that the "Monroeville Four" remain intact and healthy, that quartet should generate between 110 and 115 points. However, Clark is much better this year and could add another 10 or so points. It's difficult to see any other squad gaining more than 100 points so there is some small space for error.

Challengers

2. Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy - Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio
An exceptional team, powered by young wrestlers, that is nowhere near its peak. Tomasello and Utley should be finalists while Sommers, Vargo, Powers and maybe Meadows should all place. That's close to 100 points. Anything more will have to be generated by Ratay, Dobben/Roff and possibly Decatur.

3. St. Peter Chanel High School - Bedford, Ohio
A classically constructed team with strong wrestlers at virtually every weight class. However, the only potential finalists are Walters and Kovach. They need Assad, Tschantz, Collier, Orrill and Kiefer to place and people like Porter and Trusnik to score. They will be close to Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy but Monroeville might have too much firepower. Watch out next year since twelve of the starters return.

4. West Jefferson High School - West Jefferson, Ohio
The critical factor for this team is to get their middleweight wrestlers at exactly the optimal weight classes. Gualtieri, Branham and Prather have to score big and Reichle, Cochran and Fabry have to realize their placement potential. Maybe Blackwell, Mickle or Langermeier can help.

5. Cuyahoga Heights High School - Cuyahoga Heights, Ohio
They cannot have another Saturday meltdown at the very tough Maple Heights district. Noernberg and Dankle have finalist potential and I think Meade can score well in Columbus if he can qualify out of that brutal 160-pound district bracket. Mallos and Torgerson can be useful helpers with somebody else becoming a surprise qualifier. Three of my top five teams exit the same sectional and that may be a real issue.

6. Troy Christian High School - Troy, Ohio
The three-time state champs have proven to be amazingly resourceful at tournament time. Last year it was Kyle Burns making the finals and Keplinger unexpectedly scoring critical points. Should that kind of optimization occur this year they could move up to fourth place. They have five potential point-scorers but each has to overcome some issue. Can Hancock and Campbell turn around a slow start, the former by moving to 112 pounds? Can Burns and Keplinger duplicate their unexpected performances of last year? Can the freshman Marshall continue his rapid improvement? A lot of positive responses mean a pile of points. It should be celebrated that only two Division 3 teams won three or more consecutive titles. St. Mary Central Catholic won five in a row between 2002 and 2006 and Troy Christian currently has a streak of three consecutive titles.

7. Mechanicsburg High School - Mechanicsburg, Ohio
I think Rogers has finalist potential and Salyers should also score heavily. They need Reese, Wasserman and Hiltibran to help out. And they can do what they did last year and pull a rabbit (or is it a Baker) out of the hat for an additional 22 points they could move up.

8. Waynedale High School - Apple Creek, Ohio
The Beam brothers should score heavily and they have a number of places where help can arrive with Harter, Widder, Petersheim, Siegel and Mullins. The question, as it has been in the past, is whether or not the cavalry will arrive in time.